There was a debate on another thread (I don't remember which) about who was favored going into the 2011 NCAA tournament. Because I had some extra time today and it's an offseason type of discussion, I thought I'd dig into the #s a bit. Below you'll see three sets of numbers (seeds, expected scoring and actual scoring).
In 2011, wrestlers were only seeded to 12. Using the seeding shown in the first set of numbers (US: unseeded, X: no qualifier), I put together expected points (placement and advancement only) in the second set of numbers. Keep in mind, in 2011, the tournament was scored as a 64 wrestler bracket so wrestlers back then received an additional (or 1/2) advancement point compared to current scoring. For wrestlers seeded 9-12, they're expected to make the Round of 12 so they all get the same expected points (3 advancement points). For unseeded wrestlers, they could be expected to finish anywhere from 0-2 to 2-2 in the Round of 16 so I split the difference and gave them an expected 1 point for going 1-2 (with the win in the first round of consis).
As you can see, there was only a 4.5 point spread between the top 4 teams with Penn State being at the top by 2 points. Of course, as has been discussed before, Quentin Wright was the difference maker for Penn State with winning the championship from the 9 seed. Ok State ended up in a distant 4th because two of their wrestlers who were expected to AA had early exits.
Anyway, I suppose you can say Penn State was a slight favorite, especially factoring in bonus potential from the regular season. There hasn't been a closer spread in expected points between the top 4 teams since 2011.
Seeds/Expected Scoring/Actual Scoring
Yes, I know Iowa's #s don't add up. I rechecked the individual wrestler #s and can't find any errors. I think they had two team penalty points that year. (If anyone has a source that lists NCAA tournament team penalty points, I'd love to get the info.)
In 2011, wrestlers were only seeded to 12. Using the seeding shown in the first set of numbers (US: unseeded, X: no qualifier), I put together expected points (placement and advancement only) in the second set of numbers. Keep in mind, in 2011, the tournament was scored as a 64 wrestler bracket so wrestlers back then received an additional (or 1/2) advancement point compared to current scoring. For wrestlers seeded 9-12, they're expected to make the Round of 12 so they all get the same expected points (3 advancement points). For unseeded wrestlers, they could be expected to finish anywhere from 0-2 to 2-2 in the Round of 16 so I split the difference and gave them an expected 1 point for going 1-2 (with the win in the first round of consis).
As you can see, there was only a 4.5 point spread between the top 4 teams with Penn State being at the top by 2 points. Of course, as has been discussed before, Quentin Wright was the difference maker for Penn State with winning the championship from the 9 seed. Ok State ended up in a distant 4th because two of their wrestlers who were expected to AA had early exits.
Anyway, I suppose you can say Penn State was a slight favorite, especially factoring in bonus potential from the regular season. There hasn't been a closer spread in expected points between the top 4 teams since 2011.
Seeds/Expected Scoring/Actual Scoring
| OSU | Iowa | Corn | PSU | OSU | Iowa | Corn | PSU | OSU | Iowa | Corn | PSU | |||
125 | 9 | 2 | 11 | US | 3 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 1 | ||
133 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 6.5 | 14.5 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 14.5 | ||
141 | US | 5 | US | 6 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 1.5 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 3 | ||
149 | 5 | X | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 13.5 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 21 | 17 | ||
157 | US | 6 | US | 3 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 14.5 | 2 | 13.5 | 1 | 17 | ||
165 | 6 | 11 | 9 | X | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | ||
174 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14.5 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 13.5 | 14.5 | ||
184 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 7.5 | 3 | 14.5 | 3 | 3 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 21 | ||
197 | 2 | 5 | 1 | X | 17 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 14.5 | 0 | ||
285 | US | 7 | X | 9 | 1 | 7.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | ||
| 75.5 | 75.5 | 78 | 80 | 59.5 | 78.5 | 79.5 | 91 | |||||||
| Bonus: | 11 | 10 | 14 | 16.5 | ||||||||||
| Total: | 70.5 | 86.5 | 93.5 | 107.5 |
