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2015 Recruiting - Using numbers and logic to prove the sky ISN'T falling

NittanyLogan'11

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Aug 15, 2011
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Hershey/Harrisburg
IT'S NOT A DOWN YEAR!

Please take the time to read this thoroughly. I think many of you will be able to take a deep breath after.

- From 2002 through 2015 (14 recruiting cycles), Penn State's average recruiting class ranking per Rivals is #31.79
- We've only been inside the top 10 ONCE (After the magical 2005 season)
- We've been inside the top 15 just 3 times (1 of Franklin's classes)
- We've been inside the top 25 8 times (both of Franklin's classes)

***Penn State is currently sitting at #26 with only 16 commitments for 1595 points***

Rivals accounts for the top 20 kids in each class meaning that PSU is 4 short of the MINIMUM number of commits for recruiting points and is STILL knocking on the door of a top 25 class. For example, Wisconsin has 24 kids in their class and are ranked #27.

It sounds like PSU will be getting a commitment from Antonio Shelton (5.6) this weekend. There are 75 more points: 1670.

The four big remaining targets are Ferns, Hudson, Hamlin, Snelson. Let's play a game called "In a perfect world" and say we land all 4, PSU would have 2071 points which would be good for about 16th or 17th (based on the previous 3 years' rankings).

Now let's play "Stike 4, you're out" and say we DON'T land ANY of those remaining 4, but we land somebody like WR Dea'lun Darian and (being conservative) 3 more 5.5 rated guys. That's an extra 240 points which puts PSU at 1835 points - that total would be good for the approximately #22 or #23 class based on the previous 3 years' points totals.


Does everyone understand what I'm trying to say?


Even in a - won't say worst-case scenario, but less than ideal- situation where we settle for 4 lowly rated guys, Penn State could still end up finishing inside the top 25 for the 3rd straight year, beating our 14-year average by about 8 or 9 places.

Step off the bridges, put down the handguns, pour out the Hemlock tea. This is not the end of the world.

Dalton (AA) - #1 Player in Mass (Gatorade POY)
Zembiec - #1 Player in NY (Gatorade POY), Top 10 pro-style QB in the country
McGovern (AA) - #2 center in the country
Brown (AA)
Fries (AA)
Gillikin
- #4 Punter in the country
Jordan (AA)
McPhearson (AA)
- Arguably one of the top 5 players on the east squad in the Semper Fi game
Menet (AA) - Top 5 OG in the country, top 100 player overall
Pryts (AA) - Assuming he stays, sounds good that he does
Sanders (AA) - #1 APB in the country, #2 overall RB in the nation, top 50 player overall
Simmons (AA) - one of the best players at the UA bowl practices, #104 player in the entire country
And let's not forget some very talented, and perhaps very underrated, players like AG, Joseph, Mathews, and Toney.

By my count, that's 10 All-Americans, 2 state players of the year, 4 players ranked inside the top 5 nationally at their respective positions.

This class may not be WHAT IT ONCE WAS or WHAT IT COULD HAVE BEEN, but this is nothing to sneeze at. Calling it a "down year" is such a slap in the face to these 16 committed players. The core group we have is extrordinary.


Now, back to my perch in Chillville :cool:
 
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