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2017 Season

mickey_PSU

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Feb 1, 2006
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It's about that time someone asks folks to predict how many wins we'll have this upcoming season so I'll start the conversation. I think we're going to go undefeated... there, I said it, and I don't think it's unreasonable to have that expectation. Skip the rest, it's long, but if you're interested, here's why...

Another Penn State football season is just about upon us but unlike the last 5, expectations and reality are somewhat aligned. This year folks likely can’t be accused of having unrealistic expectations if they “expect” us to win 11 games, although Vegas has the o/u at 9.5 (I’m taking the over) . Last season was magical, a season for the ages so to speak, so how can that be topped? I actually think it can and will be this year. From last year’s team, we have lost 7 starters, Brian Gaia at center, Chris Godwin at WR, Evan Schwan and Garret Sickles at DE, Brandon Bell at LB and Malik Golden at safety make up the guys who have moved on to the next chapters in their lives while John Reed unfortunately suffered what is thought to be a season-ending injury. Because of solid recruiting and plenty of experience, I do not believe any of them will be so sorely missed that it will greatly impact our 2017 season. Brandon Bell and John Reed are probably the most difficult players to replace on defense, Their leadership skills and instincts were a major part of our team’s resurgence during the final 9 games of last season. I think Chris Godwin’s decision to enter the NFL draft hurts us the most on offense but again, there’s solid talent behind him so “next man up” (you hear that Messus Johnson and Charles?). Anyway, here’s how I see each position going into the upcoming season:

Offensive Line:

This is the year we Penn State fans have been looking forward to. Last year, guys like Bates, McGovern, Gonzalez and Wright got their first real taste of B1G defensive linemen and they came through with, all things considered, flying colors. A year of experience and another year in the strength & conditioning program and I expect them to be stronger, more mature and improved. At center, we are replacing Gaia and there’s little doubt, his experience will be missed… however I think McGovern will make a smooth transition into the starting job and will make an excellent QB of the offensive line. McGovern’s most natural position, the one he mastered throughout high school, is ready for him to step in and succeed. McGovern himself said that last year, when he was moved around, helped him prepare for this upcoming season because he now has an idea what each position’s responsibilities are on the offensive line. My bet is that he ens the year all B1G.

At guard, there’s a plethora of talented (and some experienced) guys to shore up the middle. It appears Brendan Mahon will take over at left guard while right guard will come down to either Stephen Gonzalez or highly touted rs frosh, Michal Menet. Of course, the one thing we will have is flexibility. It’s entirely possible Gonzalez will stay at LG and Mahon will move over to RG and then there’s Nelson. It’s a bit of a mystery whether and how much either Mahon and/or Nelson will contribute but even if both can’t go, I still think we’ll be fine.

At tackle, Ryan Bates proved last season that he can handle the position more than capably and thus far, it appears he’s done so well that he’s going to stay at LT while, if healthy, Mahon will move back inside. At the other tackle position, it’ll likely be Chasz Wright. Then there’s Fries, Jenkins and Gellerstedt. What makes me more excited about this year’s team is our depth on the offensive line. Both Gonzalez and Wright did a great job filling in when injuries riddled our tackles last season. In fact, we learned a little bit about the flexibility we have when Bates moved to the outside and Gonzo slipped into the starting LG role to close out the season. We really didn’t miss much of a beat, although the running game struggled at times with the then inexperienced linemen in there, but by season’s end, I thought the running game was showing definite signs of improvement- while Barkley deserves much of the credit, the line did have something to do with it as well. The cool thing is that by season’s end, both Wright and Gonzalez were playing well. IN addition, we have true freshmen CJ Thorpe and Mike Miranda available to add more quality depth for the upcoming season. Miranda has been singled out several times through the Spring… and let’s not forget Rob Martin and Desmond Holmes. I hope we can rs the freshmen but it’s nice to know that at least Miranda and probably Thorpe could contribute if necessary. Add it up and you’ll see that we’ll have a full compliment of offensive linemen with experienced and talented backups available in case of injury. The OL, while maye just slightly above-average by the close of last year, is, I believe, going to be a true strength this upcoming season.

Quarterbacks:
Trace McSorley is back, how anyone can’t get excited about that is inconceivable to me. If you’re not excited, check your pulse, maybe you’re dead? What I’m hoping for is more experience for Tommy Stevens and opportunities for Jake Zembiec. Thinking ahead, it would be nice to get those guys some meaningful playing time this year. Based on the B/W game, Stevens looks like he could be starting for a good number of other teams, what a luxury. Looking at the schedule, I see several games where we might be able to give the backups some significant pt. If Phil is right and we average 40 plus pts this year, there’s no doubt the subs will get valuable experience. Should the unthinkable happen and McSorely suffers a significant injury, I feel pretty confident the offense won’t skip a beat, I think Stevens is that good. Some have called McSorely and Stevens the best 1-2 QB combination in the Country. My concern, if I have one, is that the most popular player on any football team is the backup QB. If McSorely has any issues, there will be some calling for Stevens and I fear that kind of “noise” could affect the team. I’m hoping that doesn’t happen.

Runningback:
Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley—enough said. What I’m really looking forward to, though, is seeing Myles Sanders begin to assert himself more in the offense. I also think that with the anticipated improved line, all the backs will have greater success. Andre Robinson may be the biggest beneficiary from the line’s strength and experience. He’s a straight ahead kind of runner so the better blocking may open things up for him to really explode. Then there’s Mark Allen, other teams are probably looking at our stable of backs and saying to themselves “it’s just not fair”. I expect Journey Brown to redshirt and, sorry to say, I think Jonathan Thomas is likely lost on the depth chart. I wonder if he’ll remain on the squad this fall?

Receivers:
Another year older, another year of experience, and again, other teams are saying to themselves “Uncle”. This is Blacknall’s year to step up and both JuJuan Johnson and Irving Charles will each have an opportunity to display some of the freakish athletic abilities Franklin has talked about. Johnson, I expect, will be the starter and he’s thought of by many as Penn State’s most likely break-out star of 2017. In the slot, Polk will be back so we won’t have to rely solely on Hamilton. Then you have Darien and the true freshmen, Hamler, Hippenhammer and Sullivan-Brown. Oh, almost forgot, Thomkins is back as well. While Blacknall, Hamilton, Polk and Thomkins are the only receivers with significant experience, this is the year some of the talented younger guys (Charles, Johnson and Darien, to name a few) are going to get the opportunity to exert themselves. With the offense, the pundants might begin to call us WR-U.

Tight Ends:
Mike Gesicki had a break-out year in ‘16. I believe he’s going to build on last season’s accomplishments. Add to his phenominal abilities the emergence of guys like Holland and Bowers and I think the fact that everything not falling on Gesicki will only make him that much more effective. Barring injuries, it’s all good here. As someone posted a while back, with Gesicki and potentially Bowers in there, the running game will also get an added boost. I’m kinda hoping for a two TE set once in a while just to give opposing defenses something else to worry about.

All in all, I think, as do many others, this could be the best offense we’ve seen at Penn State since 1994 (Kerry Collins, KiJana Carter, Kyle Brady, Bobby Engram—you get the picture). It remains to be seen whether the offensive line can live up to the standard set by that 94 team. I’m thinking they’ll be good but not that good… but I think the type of offense we run now will make up for the difference.

Defense

Defensive Line:
Just about everyone returns to a defensive line that was becoming darn good last season. Some point to Michigan and Pitt as “proof” that we’re not that good but as has been explained by me and others, those games came early in the year, with a lot of injuries plaguing the defense (especially at LB), and as the season progressed, the defense, especially the line, just kept getting better and better. Adding young talent such as Shane Simmons, Daniel Joseph, Antonio Shelton and Ellison Jordan is only going to make the line that much better... and I’m not even talking about the elite recruits coming in this year. The defensive line is set for now and into the future, it should be a strength of our team, imo. I’m just not buying the “we’re not elite” argument. While we may not have a long list of highly recruited defensive tackles on the roster, we have guys who have a workman like attitude and guys like Curtis Cothran and Kevin Givens are poised to dominate. Guys like Parker Cothren, Tyrell Chavis and Robert Windsor will plug the middle and I’m just not seeing the inadequacy some on here seem to see. I also think Hansard will play and, to the extent it matters, he’s considered a “blue chipper”.

The DT rotation will include Cothran and Cothren; Windsor and Givens; Chavis and either Shelton, Jordan, Hansard or even Buchholz- we’re deep and talented, imo, and that will allow us to wear other teams down (similar to the last 9 games of last season).

I forgot to mention, Shaka Toney at stand-up DE might be one of our pleasant surprises this upcoming season. The starters will likely be Torance Brown and Shareef Miller and I’m expecting Miller to be an absolute beast this year. I’m really looking forward to seing Shane Simmons and Toney, along with Buchholz and Joseph, chasing QBs around this fall. I also would not be surprised if Gross-Matos plays as a true freshman. I think, similar to tackle, we’ll be deep and talented at the defensive end position in ’17.

Linebackers:
Here’s the one position where I worry a little bit. I said the same thing last year—we’re not all set at LB just yet. Gone are Bell and Wartman-White, although Nyeem really didn’t contribute all that much. We have numbers but we’re a little lacking on experience. I expect Cabinda to man the middle flanked by Manny Bowen and Coa Farmer. Brandon Smith will give us depth in the middle and the time Cam Brown got last year will be invaluable this year. Cam has gotten bigger, faster and stronger and maybe he’s poised to be the next great LB at penn State. We don’t know whether Jake Cooper will be back, he’s another kid who has contributed in the past and it would be nice to have him to add depth. Jarvis Miller is unproven at this point however the word is he’s doing well- we’ll also need him to provide depth. Then there are the true freshmen, Faison-Walden, Brooks and Franklin. We’re not thin in terms of numbers but are a bit lacking on overall experience. I think the starters can turn out quite good. So long as we can avoid the injury bug, something we’ve not been able to do the last couple years, we should be solid at LB, even above average. Farmer seems poised to have that break-out year; Brown has already shown he’s got talent (he was all over the field in the B/W game) and we know Cabinda is solid. If Cam Brown and Jarvis Miller can provide depth, we’ll be just fine. I do think Ellis Brooks will wind up playing as a true freshman, we’ll see.

Corners:
John Reed’s injury could be devastating but I think we have enough talent to make it at least a bit less dramatic. You can’t easily replace Reed, he’s that good, but it’s not like we don’t have anyone capable of manning the position. Returning are Grant Haley, he’ll provide senior leadership; Christian Campbell, who has a lot of experience under his belt, will likely begin the season as the other starter in place of John Reed but I expect Lamont Wade to eventually take over as the season progresses; Armani Oruwariyeh is another kid I expect to get a lot of pt this fall and I think he’ll do well, he’s gotten a lot of experience and he’s shown a propensity to make big plays when he’s in there. freshmen Zech McPhearson and TJ Johnson, who looked real good in the B/W game, will provide depth. Then there’s several other true freshmen , Donovan Johnson, DJ Brown, and Tariq Castro-Fields, who will ensure that the position is well stocked this season and into the future. Once again, some experienced depth issues could impact the unit but I think the incoming freshmen and rs frosh T.Johnson and McPhearson will add strength to what is already a solid group.

Safeties:
Losing Golden creates a bit of a hole but I believe guys like Ayron Monroe, Troy Apke, Nick Scott (another potential break-out defensive player, imo), Garrett Taylor and true freshman Jonathan Sutherland will provide more than adequate quality and depth. Fortunately, our early season schedule isn’t nearly as difficult as last years’ so I believe depth will be developed through the early part of the campaign. Pitt is not the same team as last year in week 2; Akron (we’re already 39 point favorites) and Georgia State shouldn’t provide difficult opponents for us and unlike last year, opening with Michigan in B1G play, this year we open with Iowa. I know the game is at Iowa but they’ll be breaking in a new QB and overall I think we’ll just be a better, more athletic, team than the Hawkeyes. That game doesn’t scare me like it does others. I think that between the DL and schedule, by the time we start to get to meaningful games in October, the safeties will have matured to the point that they will compliment what will be a solid, even “good”, defense. In fact, I kinda think the defense may be very good as the season progresses.

Special Teams
For me, there’s a number of mysteries surrounding our special teams. Punting is not one of them. Obviously, I expect Blake Gillikin to improve on what was already an outstanding freshmen season. Even if he “only” does as well as he did last year, that’ll be fine.

Kickoffs are currently one of those mysteries. If Joey Julius can hold down the job, I’m not worried. The question is whether his eating disorder will cost him the season. I sure hope not. IF he can’t go, I have no idea how well Barbir will do. I’m not panicking, but I have concerns.

Here’s a mystery I’m not worried about, the return game. With guys like Sanders, Wade, Hamler, Hippenhammer, Sullivan-Brown, D.Johnson, Scott, Mark Allen, Polk, and even Barkley, I think we have some potentially fantastic return guys on our roster. Obviously, time will tell but I’m betting the coaches wil finally find that special guy who can electrify the return game.

As for coverage units, the steady upward progression will continue, imo, with the infusion of more talented rs freshmen added to the improving units. Expect better results this year, I know I sure am.

So there it is, my season preview… sorry so long but then again, if its from me, you already knew before opening the thread that it would be long LOL. What do you think?



PS: Here’s my list of true freshmen I think will play this year:

DT Fred Hansard
DE Yetor Gross-Matos
LB Ellis Brooks
DB Lamont Wade
DB Tariq Castro-Fields

I also think either Donovan Johnson, KJ Hamler, Mac Hippenhammer or Cam Sullivan-Brown will crack the return team but that’s just ahunch—@B.Brown, I’m bying your “play em now, don’t rs them philosophy, it makes complete sense.
 
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