2022-2023 Season, an early look

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Fast approaching, I know everyone is excited for the season to begin. The official start date is November 1st, which is less than a week away.
I've taken the time to look at six teams; Penn State, Iowa, Arizona State, Ohio State, Michigan and Missouri. Starting with Missouri and Michigan, I'll have all the reviews done and posted before the start of the season. That said, here's a start, using the starters as those currently listed on wrestlestat;

Missouri Tigers

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
165
: Keegan O’Toole – National champ, he’s favored again until someone beats him.
149: Brock Mauller – Has a great wrestling name, 5th and 6th place finisher previously. Injured last season. Top-3 (Diakomihalis, Sasso, Gomez) at this weight class are VERY GOOD, so on paper I’ll say his cap is 4th.
197: Rocky Elam – 4th and 5th place finisher in first two NCAA seasons. In a weight class that is tightly bunched talent-wise at the top, his cap is winning it all. It’s a minefield to get there, with Dean, Warner, Buchanan, Truax and a host of others near the top, but he did beat Bonaccorsi, Schultz and Hoffman in succession before finishing 4th this past season.

Next level:
141: Alan Hart – Round of 12 has been his best finish, but with 141 clearing out a bit, Hart has a better than 50-50 shot at All-American. He’s a veteran that has not quite reached his potential. Last season, seeded #9, had the misfortune of facing a higher seeded wrestler in his first wrestleback match, when his opponent lost in an upset in the championship bracket. Happens. 70% chance to AA.
125: Noah Surtin – Round of 12 last year, he’ll be in the mix to AA with the likes of Cardinale, Mastrogiovanni, Ramos, Heinselman, etc. I’ll give him a 30% chance of an AA finish.
285: Zach Elam – Similar to 125. Elam is a 2x qualifier and a round of 12 finisher. He’s on the cusp of an All-American finish. He did beat both Ghadali and Stencil in succession to reach the round of 12 last season, so he’s right there. Pulling a number out of my hat, using my gut feel, 40% chance of an AA finish.
174: Peyton Mocco – A 3x qualifier with a best finish of round of 12, Mocco is another Tiger wrestler with a possible AA finish. He took Mehki Lewis to a tiebreaker last season before losing, so the talent is there. 25% chance of an AA finish.
157: Jarrett Jacques – 4x qualifier with a round of 12 finish to his credentials, but went 0-2 last season. 10% chance to AA, though he's a senior making his last run. Could happen.

The rest:
184: Sean Harman – Moved up from 174, replacing departing wrestler Jeremiah Kent. Not likely to AA.
133: Connor Brown – Twice injuring in the past, and wrestling for his third school, the once-promising career appears to have been derailed by the injuries. Not likely to AA.

Team: I’d say a 3rd to 7th place finish is possible. A few REALLY good wrestlers, but not enough of them to win in a tournament setting. Will be a solid dual meet team. I could see as many as 7 AA’s if the chips fall right for the Tigers. If that happens, they’ll be at the high end of my projection, but if they are only in the 3-4 AA range, they’ll drop to the 7 range. As far as NCAA points, sans Bonus, I'll predict 70 or so at the absolute high end, and lo-mid 50's at the low end.


Michigan Wolverines:

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
285: Mason Parris – 5th and 2nd place and a 4x qualifier at NCAA’s suggest a high finish for the Wolverine Senior. I agree, though I don’t see him beating Schultz or Kerkvliet. He does have Cassioppi’s number, going 3-0 against the Hawkeye in his career. Cap at 3rd.
157: Will Lewan – Talented? Yes, but I’d rather watch paint dry. Still, he’ll be in the mix for the top spot at 157. A 5th place finish last season, but Deakin is gone, and right now Quincy Monday and David Carr have departed for 165.
165: Cameron Amine – 4th and 7th place past finishes and Amine will be in the mix at 165. With Carr and Monday moving into 165, and O’Toole and Griffith still there, Amine will be hard-pressed to follow up with another 4th place finish. I have him in the mix from 5th to 7th.
133: Dylan Ragusin – A 2x qualifier, reaching the round of 12 last season, the Michigan sophomore should AA this season. He was seeded 6th last year, losing by 1 point to both the #3 and #7 seeded guys. He’s right there, I’d say in the 4th to 7th range.

Next level:
184: Matt Finesilver – The Duke transfer is a 3x qualifier, with a best finish of round of 16. He’s also moving up from 174 to 184. Not much to use for comparison. So I’ll say 20% chance of an AA finish. Lots of talent remains at 184, though Myles Amine departs.

The rest:
125: Jack Medley – 1x qualifier, in 2020. I remember Medley giving Spencer Lee a tough bout in the past, losing only by decision, but losing by Tech Fall later in the year. Unlikely to AA.
141: Cole Mattin – Nice to see the kid back on the mat after a serious leg injury last season. His last couple bouts last season were at 149, and he’s back to 141, a more natural weight. Not likely to AA.
149: Chance Lamar – A 10-2 redshirt season is solid but misleading, as his resume is weak. Unlikely to AA, though I can see the freshman as qualifying and reaching the round of 16.
174: Max Maylor – A starter in 2020, has a win % less than 50%. Not likely to AA.
197: Bobby Striggow – Has a less than 50% win record in career. Not likely to AA.

Team: Michigan has a better tournament team than dual meet team. Their four high-end guys are really good, but the quantity of very good wrestlers just isn’t there. Those top guys could carry the Wolverines to a top-8 finish, but I don’t see them higher than 5th. With the team noted above, the Wolverines max out, without bonus, in the middle 60's, with a bottom in the high 40's.
 
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82bordeaux

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Fast approaching, I know everyone is excited for the season to begin. The official start date is November 1st, which is less than a week away.
I've taken the time to look at six teams; Penn State, Iowa, Arizona State, Ohio State, Michigan and Missouri. Starting with Missouri and Michigan, I'll have all the reviews done and posted before the start of the season. That said, here's a start, using the starters as those currently listed on wrestlestat;

Missouri Tigers

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
165
: Keegan O’Toole – National champ, he’s favored again until someone beats him.
149: Brock Mauller – Has a great wrestling name, 5th and 6th place finisher previously. Injured last season. Top-3 (Diakomihalis, Sasso, Gomez) at this weight class are VERY GOOD, so on paper I’ll say his cap is 4th.
197: Rocky Elam – 4th and 5th place finisher in first two NCAA seasons. In a weight class that is tightly bunched talent-wise at the top, his cap is winning it all. It’s a minefield to get there, with Dean, Warner, Buchanan, Truax and a host of others near the top, but he did beat Bonaccorsi, Schultz and Hoffman in succession before finishing 4th this past season.

Next level:
141: Alan Hart – Round of 12 has been his best finish, but with 141 clearing out a bit, Hart has a better than 50-50 shot at All-American. He’s a veteran that has not quite reached his potential. Last season, seeded #9, had the misfortune of facing a higher seeded wrestler in his first wrestleback match, when his opponent lost in an upset in the championship bracket. Happens. 70% chance to AA.
125: Noah Surtin – Round of 12 last year, he’ll be in the mix to AA with the likes of Cardinale, Mastrogiovanni, Ramos, Heinselman, etc. I’ll give him a 30% chance of an AA finish.
285: Zach Elam – Similar to 125. Elam is a 2x qualifier and a round of 12 finisher. He’s on the cusp of an All-American finish. He did beat both Ghadali and Stencil in succession to reach the round of 12 last season, so he’s right there. Pulling a number out of my hat, using my gut feel, 40% chance of an AA finish.
174: Peyton Mocco – A 3x qualifier with a best finish of round of 12, Mocco is another Tiger wrestler with a possible AA finish. He took Mehki Lewis to a tiebreaker last season before losing, so the talent is there. 25% chance of an AA finish.
157: Jarrett Jacques – 4x qualifier with a round of 12 finish to his credentials, but went 0-2 last season. 10% chance to AA, though he's a senior making his last run. Could happen.

The rest:
184: Sean Harman – Moved up from 174, replacing departing wrestler Jeremiah Kent. Not likely to AA.
133: Connor Brown – Twice injuring in the past, and wrestling for his third school, the once-promising career appears to have been derailed by the injuries. Not likely to AA.

Team: I’d say a 3rd to 7th place finish is possible. A few REALLY good wrestlers, but not enough of them to win in a tournament setting. Will be a solid dual meet team. I could see as many as 7 AA’s if the chips fall right for the Tigers. If that happens, they’ll be at the high end of my projection, but if they are only in the 3-4 AA range, they’ll drop to the 7 range.

Michigan Wolverines:

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
285: Mason Parris – 5th and 2nd place and a 4x qualifier at NCAA’s suggest a high finish for the Wolverine Senior. I agree, though I don’t see him beating Schultz or Kerkvliet. He does have Cassioppi’s number, going 3-0 against the Hawkeye in his career. Cap at 3rd.
157: Will Lewan – Talented? Yes, but I’d rather watch paint dry. Still, he’ll be in the mix for the top spot at 157. A 5th place finish last season, but Deakin is gone, and right now Quincy Monday and David Carr have departed for 165.
165: Cameron Amine – 4th and 7th place past finishes and Amine will be in the mix at 165. With Carr and Monday moving into 165, and O’Toole and Griffith still there, Amine will be hard-pressed to follow up with another 4th place finish. I have him in the mix from 5th to 7th.
133: Dylan Ragusin – A 2x qualifier, reaching the round of 12 last season, the Michigan sophomore should AA this season. He was seeded 6th last year, losing by 1 point to both the #3 and #7 seeded guys. He’s right there, I’d say in the 4th to 7th range.

Next level:
184: Matt Finesilver – The Duke transfer is a 3x qualifier, with a best finish of round of 16. He’s also moving up from 174 to 184. Not much to use for comparison. So I’ll say 20% chance of an AA finish. Lots of talent remains at 184, though Myles Amine departs.

The rest:
125: Jack Medley – 1x qualifier, in 2020. I remember Medley giving Spencer Lee a tough bout in the past, losing only by decision, but losing by Tech Fall later in the year. Unlikely to AA.
141: Cole Mattin – Nice to see the kid back on the mat after a serious leg injury last season. His last couple bouts last season were at 149, and he’s back to 141, a more natural weight. Not likely to AA.
149: Chance Lamar – A 10-2 redshirt season is solid but misleading, as his resume is weak. Unlikely to AA, though I can see the freshman as qualifying and reaching the round of 16.
174: Max Maylor – A starter in 2020, has a win % less than 50%. Not likely to AA.
197: Bobby Striggow – Has a less than 50% win record in career. Not likely to AA.

Team: Michigan has a better tournament team than dual meet team. Their four high-end guys are really good, but the quantity of very good wrestlers just isn’t there. Those top guys could carry the Wolverines to a top-8 finish, but I don’t see them higher than 5th.
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Sportfan2017

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Jun 28, 2017
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Interesting note on Ohio State's wrestle-off brackets:
133lbs. lists Jesse Mendez to wrestle the winner of Dylan Koontz and Alex Flerlage. Nic Bouzakis is not listed at any weight.
 

zzs006

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Mar 27, 2017
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Interesting note on Ohio State's wrestle-off brackets:
133lbs. lists Jesse Mendez to wrestle the winner of Dylan Koontz and Alex Flerlage. Nic Bouzakis is not listed at any weight.
Geog not listed in the wrestle off brackets either. Lots of talk of him giving Romero a run at 184 so interesting he’s not listed
 

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Ohio State Worthless Nuts: (Note: the result of a joke I heard years ago, still funny)

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
149: Sammy Sasso – A finalist (and 2nd-place finisher) in 2021, Sasso also finished 5th in 2022. Diakomihalis is the odds-on favorite at 149, but Sasso is in the mix with Gomez, Lovett and others for 2nd this year. Cap at 2nd place, though Gomez did handle him twice in the 2022 post-season.
174: Ethan Smith – One in a bevy of guys that could finish in the 3rd through 6th places, at least on paper and in my opinion. Smith is a 4x qualifier, and finished 5th to AA in 2021. A 6th year senior, he IS good enough to finish 3rd.
184: Kaleb Romero – A 3x qualifier and 6th place finisher in 2022, I see a strong possibility he’ll improve on that finish. The top-3 (Brooks, Hidlay, Keckeisen) at 184 have separated themselves, but Myles Amine is gone, so I’m capping Romero’s finish at 4th.
165: Carson Karchla – Finished 7th last season, but didn’t lose a bout by more than 2 the entire season. Really good wrestler, but with the addition of Carr at 165 (O’Toole, Griffith, Amine and Hamiti are still there too!), I see a 5th to 8th place finish in his future.
197: Gavin Hoffman – Was 2022 lightning in a bottle or is Hoffman right there to AA again? He beat higher seeds Sloan, Bonaccorsi, and Woodley to finish 6th from the 21 seed. With Truax moving up from 184 and Michael Beard going for Lehigh, I’m only giving Hoffman a 60% chance of a repeat AA. Happened before, so it could happen again.
285: Tate Orndorff – Finished 8th in 2021 and round of 12 last season. He’s right there, but not showing that much improvement. He’ll be in the mix, I’ll give him a 50% shot at an AA finish. I also think it’s possible that uber-recruit Nick Feldman could be the starter by years end.

Next Level:
125: Malik Heinselman – A 4x qualifier, the senior will be in the fight for an All-American finish. I have him in the 8th through 12th place range with a less than 50% chance of an AA finish.
141: Dylan D’Emilio – A 2x qualifier with a round of 16 finish. Like Heinselman, he’ll be in a fight for an AA finish. I do give him slightly better odds at about 60%.
133: Jesse Mendez – Super recruit, finished his high school career at 157-1. He WILL be in the mix to AA, but as a true freshman, I’ll leave him in this category. Doubtful he can beat the likes of Bravo-Young and Daton Fix. Maybe he’ll challenge Arujau, McGee, Byrd and Ragusin, who knows. I think he will, with a cap at a 3rd place finish.
157: Paddy Gallagher – A 10-1 redshirt season record against D-1 competition was solid, only losing in Sudden Victory. He also lost to Penn State recruit Levi Haines 8-3. Not sure where he’ll fit in at 157, with Andonian moving up from 149 and the possibility of Haines entering the fray. This is a solid weight class, I’ll give the young Buckeye a 50% chance to AA.

Team: Ohio State is a solid team, both dual meet-wise and tournament-wise. I really don’t see a weakness. No way they finish close to 13th, as they did at last March’s NCAA Championship, this team is built more like the 2017, 2018, and 2019 teams, all of which finished SECOND. Seriously, 2nd through 4th would be my guess, and that will likely depend on the freshmen starters. High end, point-wise without bonus) is 86 or so and low end in the 70 range.
 
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NittanyChris

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Dec 3, 2001
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Ohio State Worthless Nuts: (Note: the result of a joke I heard years ago)

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
149: Sammy Sasso – A finalist (and 2nd-place finisher) in 2021, Sasso also finished 5th in 2022. Diakomihalis is the odds-on favorite at 149, but Sasso is in the mix with Gomez, Lovett and others for 2nd this year. Cap at 2nd place, though Gomez did handle him twice in the 2022 post-season.
174: Ethan Smith – One in a bevy of guys that could finish in the 3rd through 6th places, at least on paper and in my opinion. Smith is a 4x qualifier, and finished 5th to AA in 2021. A 6th year senior, he IS good enough to finish 3rd.
184: Kaleb Romero – A 3x qualifier and 6th place finisher in 2022, I see a strong possibility he’ll improve on that finish. The top-3 (Brooks, Hidlay, Keckeisen) at 184 have separated themselves, but Myles Amine is gone, so I’m capping Romero’s finish at 4th.
165: Carson Karchla – Finished 7th last season, but didn’t lose a bout by more than 2 the entire season. Really good wrestler, but with the addition of Carr at 165 (O’Toole, Griffith, Amine and Hamiti are still there too!), I see a 5th to 8th place finish in his future.
197: Gavin Hoffman – Was 2022 lightning in a bottle or is Hoffman right there to AA again? He beat higher seeds Sloan, Bonaccorsi, and Woodley to finish 6th from the 21 seed. With Truax moving up from 184 and Michael Beard going for Lehigh, I’m only giving Hoffman a 60% chance of a repeat AA. Happened before, so it could happen again.
285: Tate Orndorff – Finished 8th in 2021 and round of 12 last season. He’s right there, but not showing that much improvement. He’ll be in the mix, I’ll give him a 50% shot at an AA finish. I also think it’s possible that uber-recruit Nick Feldman could be the starter by years end.

The rest:
125: Malik Heinselman – A 4x qualifier, the senior will be in the fight for an All-American finish. I have him in the 8th through 12th place range with a less than 50% chance of an AA finish.
141: Dylan D’Emilio – A 2x qualifier with a round of 16 finish. Like Heinselman, he’ll be in a fight for an AA finish. I do give him slightly better odds at about 60%.
133: Jesse Mendez – Super recruit, finished his high school career at 157-1. He WILL be in the mix to AA, but as a true freshman, I’ll leave him in this category. Doubtful he can beat the likes of Bravo-Young and Daton Fix. Maybe he’ll challenge Arujau, McGee, Byrd and Ragusin, who knows. I think he will, with a cap at a 3rd place finish.
157: Paddy Gallagher – A 10-1 redshirt season record against D-1 competition was solid, only losing in Sudden Victory. He also lost to Penn State recruit Levi Haines 8-3. Not sure where he’ll fit in at 157, with Andonian moving up from 149 and the possibility of Haines entering the fray. This is a solid weight class, I’ll give the young Buckeye a 50% chance to AA.

Team: Ohio State is a solid team, both dual meet-wise and tournament-wise. I really don’t see a weakness. No way they finish close to 13th, as they did at last March’s NCAA Championship, this team is built more like the 2017, 2018, and 2019 teams, all of which finished SECOND. Seriously, 2nd through 4th would be my guess, and that will likely depend on the freshmen starters.
Wow. Mendez challenging Arujau as a true Freshman? You really are high on this kid. Seems unlikely to me, but who knows?
 
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RoarLions1

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Four teams now done. I'll finish with Iowa, then Penn State. Team points will be added to the posts, to give a rough calculated guess of each team's potential.

Arizona State Sun Devils:

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
125: Brandon Courtney – A finalist (and 2nd-place finisher) in 2021, Courtney is a three-time qualifier, with a 6th place finish in 2022. With Spencer Lee returning and Patrick Glory at the weight, 3rd would be his cap. Remember, Arujau moves to 133.
285: Cohlton Schultz – The sophomore has previous finishes of 2nd and 4th. With Steveson gone (or is he!), Schultz could be national champ. Tough road to hoe, as a healthy Kerkvliet and/or Parris could derail those plans. He’s also struggled with Cassioppi in the past. Ceiling is 1st, lowest I see him is 4th.
133: Michael McGee – A 4-time qualifier already, McGee has a 4th and 6th place finish to his credit. With Fix and Bravo-Young back, 3rd is his cap imo, and he’ll be fighting it out with Arujau, Byrd, Ragusin and the like for that finish.
157: Jacori Teemer – The junior has a 4th and 6th place finish to his credit. 157 is a solid weight class, but without a lot of separation, even into the double-digit seeds. I’d cap him at 1st, but doubt that will be his finish given the free-for-all look of 157. Conservatively, he’s likely to finish in the 3-6 range.
149: Kyle Parco – The sophomore has a 4th and 6th place finish already in his resume. It’ll be really tough to improve on that, despite the young man’s obvious talent, as Diakomihalis, Gomez, Sasso, Lovett and others are here. I’d cap his finish at 4th.

Next Level:
197: Kordell Norfleet – A 4x qualifier with a best finish of round of 12, he’s a solid talent till he runs out of gas. I haven’t seen anything that suggests an AA finish, but I’ll give him a 10% shot. Only Schultz and Bulsak depart the weight class, while Truax moves up and Beard moves in.
184: Anthony Montalvo – 1x qualifier, this transfer from Oklahoma State was injured all of last season. If healthy, I can see him in the mix for a low AA finish. Past wins include; Bonaccorsi, Samuelson, and Clothier. I’ll give him a 10% shot at an AA finish as most of 184 returns.

The Rest:
141: Jesse Vasquez – Injury sidelined him last season. He was a solid 7-1 at the time with no notable wins. Even if healthy, not likely to AA.
165: Tony Negron – I wish the Penn State transfer success. Super young man. 165 is a solid weight class up and down the rankings, so an AA finish will be really tough.
174: Cael Valencia – The youngest of the Valencia brothers, Cael comes in highly-regarded. His redshirt 2022 season, at 8-4 against D-1 competition, doesn’t show a current talent level to become an All-American. Probably a couple years away.

Team: Arizona State is a solid team, likely top-5 when all is said and done. On paper, they are a better tournament team than dual meet team, though with the five horses they have, beating them in a dual will be a challenge too. I’d cap their NCAA potential at a 4th place finish. Without Bonus, a high point mark would be about 79, with a low in the mid-50's.
 

baccafarmer

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Four teams now done. I'll finish with Iowa, then Penn State. Team points will be added to the posts, to give a rough calculated guess of each team's potential.

Arizona State Sun Devils:

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
125: Brandon Courtney – A finalist (and 2nd-place finisher) in 2021, Courtney is a three-time qualifier, with a 6th place finish in 2022. With Spencer Lee returning and Patrick Glory at the weight, 3rd would be his cap. Remember, Arujau moves to 133.
285: Cohlton Schultz – The sophomore has previous finishes of 2nd and 4th. With Steveson gone (or is he!), Schultz could be national champ. Tough road to hoe, as a healthy Kerkvliet and/or Parris could derail those plans. He’s also struggled with Cassioppi in the past. Ceiling is 1st, lowest I see him is 4th.
133: Michael McGee – A 4-time qualifier already, McGee has a 4th and 6th place finish to his credit. With Fix and Bravo-Young back, 3rd is his cap imo, and he’ll be fighting it out with Arujau, Byrd, Ragusin and the like for that finish.
157: Jacori Teemer – The junior has a 4th and 6th place finish to his credit. 157 is a solid weight class, but without a lot of separation, even into the double-digit seeds. I’d cap him at 1st, but doubt that will be his finish given the free-for-all look of 157. Conservatively, he’s likely to finish in the 3-6 range.
149: Kyle Parco – The sophomore has a 4th and 6th place finish already in his resume. It’ll be really tough to improve on that, despite the young man’s obvious talent, as Diakomihalis, Gomez, Sasso, Lovett and others are here. I’d cap his finish at 4th.

Next Level:
197: Kordell Norfleet – A 4x qualifier with a best finish of round of 12, he’s a solid talent till he runs out of gas. I haven’t seen anything that suggests an AA finish, but I’ll give him a 10% shot. Only Schultz and Bulsak depart the weight class, while Truax moves up and Beard moves in.
184: Anthony Montalvo – 1x qualifier, this transfer from Oklahoma State was injured all of last season. If healthy, I can see him in the mix for a low AA finish. Past wins include; Bonaccorsi, Samuelson, and Clothier. I’ll give him a 10% shot at an AA finish as most of 184 returns.

The Rest:
141: Jesse Vasquez – Injury sidelined him last season. He was a solid 7-1 at the time with no notable wins. Even if healthy, not likely to AA.
165: Tony Negron – I wish the Penn State transfer success. Super young man. 165 is a solid weight class up and down the rankings, so an AA finish will be really tough.
174: Cael Valencia – The youngest of the Valencia brothers, Cael comes in highly-regarded. His redshirt 2022 season, at 8-4 against D-1 competition, doesn’t show a current talent level to become an All-American. Probably a couple years away.

Team: Arizona State is a solid team, likely top-5 when all is said and done. On paper, they are a better tournament team than dual meet team, though with the five horses they have, beating them in a dual will be a challenge too. I’d cap their NCAA potential at a 4th place finish. Without Bonus, a high point mark would be about 79, with a low in the mid-50's.
This is A-1 stuff. Thanks. I figure that you are retired, but, you ought to earn extra bucks by selling your analysis. It’s far better than the sophomoric babble we see various web sites.
 

RoarLions1

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Wow. Mendez challenging Arujau as a true Freshman? You really are high on this kid. Seems unlikely to me, but who knows?
Let me explain. "Capped at xxx", like any other wrestler I've reviewed means highest possible finish in my opinion. That also means a lower finish is at least AS LIKELY. I did take a liberty with Mendez, since he's a true freshman, hence your post I'm guessing. A blue chip true freshman is no longer a freshman by the end of his first season (we Penn State fans can surely understand that), he's a veteran with upwards of 25 bouts under his belt. Tbh, a 5th-7th place finish would be more where I would place him without seeing anything other than high school bouts.
 

zzs006

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Mar 27, 2017
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Thinking he was a kid Spyker threw a full court press upon.
I actually thought he was going to be really good as well. I figured he would grow more than he did though. He was so impressive winning his world titles but it was at the lowest weight. I wish we could have seen him in college but since he went to Michigan I’m not terribly upset
 
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RoarLions1

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Iowa Hawkeyes:

Known Entities, likely All-Americans:
125: Spencer Lee – Three-timer, along with Yianni Diakomihalis, going for FOUR. Glory is the only guy with a chance if Lee is healthy imo and it is slim. My hope is for Lee to stay healthy, with a guess that the Iowa staff will be somewhat cautious until the post-season.
197: Jacob Warner – 4-time qualifier with a 7th, 4th, and 2nd to his credit. I know PSU fans like to bust on the kid, but he’s the real deal and has proved it over his previous five seasons (one redshirt year). The senior is surely aiming for the top of the medal stand, but wrestling close-to-the-vest, as Warner routinely does, has its risks. I will say that his cap is 1st, but he is more likely to finish lower.
285: Tony Cassioppi – The junior is a 3-time qualifier with a 3rd and 7th to his credit. He is a force at heavyweight. I do not see him any lower than 4th, and he could be higher. Too many land-mines to win it all, as he’s struggled with Parris, seems to have Schultz’s number (though that was 2 years ago), and the ever-improving Kerkvliet is also in his path.
141: Real Woods – The transfer from Stanford has two years of eligibility left. He already has three qualifier years to his credit and was a 6th place finisher in 2022. 141 lost some top-end talent (Lee, Rivera, Eireman, Clarke, etc.) which opens the door to move up. His cap is national champ, though he did lose to Pitt returner Cole Matthews 7-3 in the 5th/6th place match last season.

Next Level:
149: Max Murin – The Pennsylvania product has had a stellar career, but Murin hasn’t gotten over the hump of being an All-American. A four-time qualifier, he’s been round-of-12 three times. I personally believe this is his year, though 149 is stacked. I’ll say 60% chance of an AA finish.
133: Brody Teske – Originally an Iowa recruit, the transfer from UNI, and previous to that, Penn State, Teske is a 2-time qualifier with a best finish of round-of-12 at 125. He’s up a weight class, so there’s little to go on. He should be competitive, but at this early stage, it’s my opinion that he has a less than 50% chance of an AA finish.
184: Abe Assad – 2-time qualifier, Assad hasn’t shown enough in his results to warrant an AA prediction. His best win was vs Venz, and that was during the 2020 season. He’s close to breaking through, so I’ll give him a 20% shot.
165: Patrick Kennedy – 11-3 vs D-1 competition last year as a redshirt, his only losses were in Sudden Victory to Hall and Formata, along with a 1-point loss to Marinelli. The close 1-point loss is likely the result of familiarity. I recognize that Iowa fans are really high on Kennedy, but he’s probably a year away. 165 is loaded, so I’m suggesting only an upset or two could get Kennedy an AA finish. Stranger things have happened, I’ll give him a 20% shot at an AA finish.

The Rest:
157: Brent Reyna – Little to go on, but limited past results suggest it’s unlikely 157 will be a qualifier weight for Iowa.
174: Brennan Swafford or Nelson Brands – Brands would surely be the starter except that it appears he’s starting the season still out with an injury suffered in 2022. Not really sure of his current status. Another weight with the possibility of not getting qualified, if Brands cannot go. If Brands CAN go and is healthy, 174 will be a qualifier weight, but an AA finish has a low probability.

Team: This is an interesting Iowa team. Graduating five seniors from a season ago would be catastrophic for all but a couple D-1 teams, among them the Hawkeyes. I believe the transfer portal alone (getting Woods) is the single biggest factor in their lofty expectations for 2023. Not having Woods would be a hit to their line-up.

I could see four guys finishing top-3, and at least one champ. That’s enough to finish top-4 or higher in 2023. Barring any injuries, that’s where I pick Iowa, to be specific, 2nd through 4th. This team will be a tough out in both duals and tournaments, but with a couple down weights, they are vulnerable against any of the top teams in duals. Interestingly, they match up well with Penn State.

Points-wise, a “perfect” tournament from every guy and this team could approach 90 points, without bonus. Not a chance of that though, so tempered expectations has me thinking more in the 70+ a little range. Pooping the bed and low 60’s is possible.
 

rmg78

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Feb 22, 2017
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Interesting note on Ohio State's wrestle-off brackets:
133lbs. lists Jesse Mendez to wrestle the winner of Dylan Koontz and Alex Flerlage. Nic Bouzakis is not listed at any weight.
So far Decatur beat Demilio and Kharchala loses 2-1 to Hepner after getting rode the entire 3rd period
 
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Ian

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Jul 8, 2001
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As usual outstanding stuff Roar. Better than any of the so called “sites” and their experts. Gotta do PSU, too, right?
 
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nitlion6

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Mar 26, 2012
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Too answer the obvious question that is at the forefront of everybody's mind, "WTF is going on in Columbus?"
The BuckNuts are amping up to make another multi year run as the NCAA championship runner-up peaking with another "best 2nd place team ever" title!
Should be a fun ride.
 

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