And now there are 13 teams left.....

[john4psu]

So now there are 13 zero or one-loss teams left as Michigan State, North Carolina State and Washington State all lost this past weekend.

If you subscribe to the likely theory that a two-loss Power 5 team will not make the college football playoff, then the following 13 teams are the only ones still in playoff contention with games forthcoming between teams noted:

Atlantic Coast Conference:
0– Miami (Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, @ Pitt)
1– Clemson (@ NC State, Florida State, The Citadel, @ South Carolina)
1- Virginia Tech (@ Miami, @ Georgia Tech, Pitt, @ Virginia)

Big 10:
0 – Wisconsin (@ Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, @ Minnesota)
1 – Ohio State (@ Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, @ Michigan)
1 – Penn State (@ Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, @ Maryland)

Big 12:
1 – Oklahoma (@ Oklahoma State, TCU, @ Kansas, West Virginia)
1 - Oklahoma State (Oklahoma, @ Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas)
1 – TCU (Texas, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, Baylor)

Pac 12:
1 – Washington (Oregon, @ Stanford, Utah, Washington State)

SEC:
0 – Alabama (LSU, @ Mississippi State, Mercer, @ Auburn)
0 - Georgia (South Carolina, @ Auburn, Kentucky, @ Georgia Tech)

Independents:
1 – Notre Dame (Wake Forest, @ Miami, Navy, @ Stanford)

NOTE: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play this week and the loser will be eliminated from the college

 

[lionroar88]

For PSU to get into the playoff:

1. Win out
2. OSU to lose two to Iowa, MSU, Michigan

We beat an undefeated, or one loss Wisconsin and we're in the playoff

1. OSU wins out
2. OKSU beats OK
3. OK beats TCU
4. ISU beats OKSU
3. GA loses to Auburn, then Bama in the SEC Championship
4. Washington loses to Stanford
5. ND loses to Miami
6. Miami beats VT
7. Clemson beats Miami for ACC Championship

1 = Bama
2 = OSU
3 = Clemson
4 = PSU

not ideal as I would prefer to finish 2 or 3 and then face Bama for the NC.

 

[fastlax16]

For PSU to get into the playoff:

1. Win out
2. OSU to lose two to Iowa, MSU, Michigan

We beat an undefeated, or one loss Wisconsin and we're in the playoff

1. OSU wins out
2. OKSU beats OK
3. OK beats TCU
4. ISU beats OKSU
3. GA loses to Auburn, then Bama in the SEC Championship
4. Washington loses to Stanford
5. ND loses to Miami
6. Miami beats VT
7. Clemson beats Miami for ACC Championship

1 = Bama
2 = OSU
3 = Clemson
4 = PSU

not ideal as I would prefer to finish 2 or 3 and then face Bama for the NC.

OSU could jump bama if they win out and we'd get a rematch. We need to be one of 4 teams with 1 loss or fewer.

 

[PSU0622]

Imagine if OSU lost to Michigan this year and won in the Big Ten Championship. A 2 loss Big Ten champion with a one loss Penn State. Sound familiar?

 

[Cpeplion]

counting back to 2011

2011--4 teams with 1 or less loss
2012-5 teams with 1 or less loss
2013--6 teams with 1 or less loss
2014--6 teams with 1 or less loss
2015---6 teams with 1 or less loss
2016--4 teams with 1 or less loss

So..on averages you'll have about 5 teams with 1 or less losses at the end of week 15 or 16. Penn State only has to win out and be better than 1 of those teams in the eyes of the committee. It's kinda like if you're being chased by a bear..I only gotta be faster than the slowest fattest dude and I'm good...unless I'm the slowest fattest dude..then I'm F'ed. I don't think a one point loss to a team like OSU at OSU keeps them out...barring PSU wins out. Remember their rallying cry too...they are looking for the 4 best teams..not the 4 best conference champs.

 

[fastlax16]

counting back to 2011

2011--4 teams with 1 or less loss
2012-5 teams with 1 or less loss
2013--6 teams with 1 or less loss
2014--6 teams with 1 or less loss
2015---6 teams with 1 or less loss
2016--4 teams with 1 or less loss

So..on averages you'll have about 5 teams with 1 or less losses at the end of week 15 or 16. Penn State only has to win out and be better than 1 of those teams in the eyes of the committee. It's kinda like if you're being chased by a bear..I only gotta be faster than the slowest fattest dude and I'm good...unless I'm the slowest fattest dude..then I'm F'ed. I don't think a one point loss to a team like OSU at OSU keeps them out...barring PSU wins out. Remember their rallying cry too...they are looking for the 4 best teams..not the 4 best conference champs.

Do those numbers include only p5 schools or are group of 5 included as well?

 

[Cpeplion]

Do those numbers include only p5 schools or are group of 5 included as well?

2011--I included Boise but not Houston (too far out of it)
2012--not included was Northern Illinois--ranked 15
2013--Not Inclueded...UCF, Fresno, Louisville, Northern Illionois (none ranked high enough to matter)
2014-- 0 G5 schools--highest was 2 loss Boise @2021
2015--Not Included..Houston ranked 18th
2016--Not Included....Western Michigan 13-0 ranked 15

 

[michnittlion]

Group 1 (win out and they're in, no doubt about it): Alabama, Georgia, Wisconsin, Miami FLA

Group 2 (win out and they're likely in, but not absolutely assured): Ohio State, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma

Group 3 (win out and they have a chance, but need more help vs. the group above): Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Washington, Virginia Tech

Group 4 (win out and they're technically alive, but will need some VERY significant help): UCF, NC State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa State, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, USC, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn

Group 5: Everybody else. Basically dead. This includes Akron and some of the other Akrons we've played thus far.

(Group 4 includes every current P-5 team with 2 losses. UCF also gets mention, they're a very good team but their conference and OOC schedule limits them)

 

[john4psu]

counting back to 2011

2011--4 teams with 1 or less loss
2012-5 teams with 1 or less loss
2013--6 teams with 1 or less loss
2014--6 teams with 1 or less loss
2015---6 teams with 1 or less loss
2016--4 teams with 1 or less loss

So..on averages you'll have about 5 teams with 1 or less losses at the end of week 15 or 16. Penn State only has to win out and be better than 1 of those teams in the eyes of the committee. It's kinda like if you're being chased by a bear..I only gotta be faster than the slowest fattest dude and I'm good...unless I'm the slowest fattest dude..then I'm F'ed. I don't think a one point loss to a team like OSU at OSU keeps them out...barring PSU wins out. Remember their rallying cry too...they are looking for the 4 best teams..not the 4 best conference champs.

Someday a 2-loss team will be selected for the college football playoff. We had a two-loss national champion in LSU when it came down to only two teams. As sure as God made little green apples....it will happen one day and that could be before they expand to an eight-team playoff.

 

[MtNittany]

 

[MtNittany]

The man w/ the pointy head actually makes a good point about "neutral fields". Go figure.

 

[lionroar88]

The man w/ the pointy head actually makes a good point about "neutral fields". Go figure.

Much, much more rational than an eye test.

 

[Cpeplion]

View embedded media

He's looking at the FPI and then figuring there are an average of 5 0-1 loss teams each year. OSU, PSU, Bama, and Clemson have the highest chances to win out according to FPI.

 

[PSUPALY]

Group 1 (win out and they're in, no doubt about it): Alabama, Georgia, Wisconsin, Miami FLA

Group 2 (win out and they're likely in, but not absolutely assured): Ohio State, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma

Group 3 (win out and they have a chance, but need more help vs. the group above): Penn State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Washington, Virginia Tech

Group 4 (win out and they're technically alive, but will need some VERY significant help): UCF, NC State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa State, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona, USC, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn

Group 5: Everybody else. Basically dead. This includes Akron and some of the other Akrons we've played thus far.

(Group 4 includes every current P-5 team with 2 losses. UCF also gets mention, they're a very good team but their conference and OOC schedule limits them)

just curious....why do you think OSU, & Clemson wouldn't be assured? hard to believe ND would be held out, but the lack of conf championship could hurt them

1. OSU wins out includes wins over PSU, @Iowa, MSU, & @Michigan and most likely Wisconsin (easily knocking out Wisky from CFP)
2. Clemson wins out includes wins over Auburn, @ Va Tech, @NC State, @ South Carolina, & Miami (if they meet in ACC tourney, and most likely knocking them out)

i suppose Georgia would stay in if only loss is against Alabama, but I'd have to imagine Whisky & Miami won't get in if OSU & Clemson win out respectively

 

[PSUPALY]

He's looking at the FPI and then figuring there are an average of 5 0-1 loss teams each year. OSU, PSU, Bama, and Clemson have the highest chances to win out according to FPI.

sorry, but not sure how our schedule is better than Notre Dame's....assuming we both win out. plus....2 big ten teams.....yeah, don't see it.

we need some help....we can't just win out (which we will)

 

[michnittlion]

just curious....why do you think OSU, & Clemson wouldn't be assured? hard to believe ND would be held out, but the lack of conf championship could hurt them

1. OSU wins out includes wins over PSU, @Iowa, MSU, & @Michigan and most likely Wisconsin (easily knocking out Wisky from CFP)
2. Clemson wins out includes wins over Auburn, @ Va Tech, @NC State, @ South Carolina, & Miami (if they meet in ACC tourney, and most likely knocking them out)

i suppose Georgia would stay in if only loss is against Alabama, but I'd have to imagine Whisky & Miami won't get in if OSU & Clemson win out respectively

(1) If Alabama, Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame win out --- I can SEE (not that I necessarily agree, but it's imaginable) a scenario where OU gets in ahead of OSU because of the head-to-head, and ND gets in ahead of OSU on strength-of-schedule.

(2) Likewise if Alabama, Miami, Wisconsin, Clemson and Notre Dame win out. Notre Dame could get #4 over Clemson.

 

[PSUPALY]

(1) If Alabama, Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame win out --- I can SEE (not that I necessarily agree, but it's imaginable) a scenario where OU gets in ahead of OSU because of the head-to-head, and ND gets in ahead of OSU on strength-of-schedule.

(2) Likewise if Alabama, Miami, Wisconsin, Clemson and Notre Dame win out. Notre Dame could get #4 over Clemson.

opposed to the undefeated teams winning out?.....yep, I'm with ya now.

sounds like there's just a lot of football left to be played......fun to talk about and glad we're in the conversation.

 

[michnittlion]

opposed to the undefeated teams winning out?.....yep, I'm with ya now.

sounds like there's just a lot of football left to be played......fun to talk about and glad we're in the conversation.

Yeah --- it's a committee. Hard to predict their thoughts, so nobody with 1-loss is completely in control of their destiny.

At least we're alive. It sucks that we fell from "my Group 1" to "my Group 3." But we're still alive - just don't lose another game and fall to "my group 4."

 

[Cpeplion]

sorry, but not sure how our schedule is better than Notre Dame's....assuming we both win out. plus....2 big ten teams.....yeah, don't see it.

we need some help....we can't just win out (which we will)

Never said it was..ND has less of a chance to win out than the other 4 teams...which is why he picked the 4 he did.

 

[MWes11]

Is Clemson essentially getting a pass for losing to a 4 loss Syracuse team? Sure, their QB got knocked out, but they still should've never lost that game. They have some nice wins, no doubt. But this is a year by year assessment of teams.

If PSU handles their business and wins out, they will be right there. Teams in front of them will lose, and depending on how those games play out (blow outs etc.), PSU should jump back in to the top 4. Still not fully in on ND and think they will lose one coming down the stretch to a team who can actually stop the run.

 

[PSUPALY]

Never said it was..ND has less of a chance to win out than the other 4 teams...which is why he picked the 4 he did.

well yeah....if ND loses, it changes things. ND has looked good as anyone in the country.....not sure they lose (which game will they be NOT favored in?)....though, they got a lot of challenges left

i just think our schedule or "resume" looks weak if we win out compared to these other teams. what's our best win right now?....Michigan?....weak sauce

Pitt & Nebraska having bad years hurt us, Michigan State losing last week didn't help either......need Iowa (and even Northwestern) to make some noise....need them both ranked. Iowa State winning a lot of games boosts Iowa's stock.....all this sh*t matters unfortunately.

 

[PSUPALY]

Is Clemson essentially getting a pass for losing to a 4 loss Syracuse team? Sure, their QB got knocked out, but they still should've never lost that game. They have some nice wins, no doubt. But this is a year by year assessment of teams.

If PSU handles their business and wins out, they will be right there. Teams in front of them will lose, and depending on how those games play out (blow outs etc.), PSU should jump back in to the top 4. Still not fully in on ND and think they will lose one coming down the stretch to a team who can actually stop the run.

yes

QB got knocked out....they beat Auburn and destroyed V-Tech on the road. if they win out (that would include @NC State, @ South Carolina, & Miami (most likely).....that's a pretty nice 1-loss team resume.

 

[MWes11]

yes

QB got knocked out....they beat Auburn and destroyed V-Tech on the road. if they win out (that would include @NC State, @ South Carolina, & Miami (most likely).....that's a pretty nice 1-loss team resume.

Nice resume, but I can't get over the loss to Syracuse. Auburn will have 4 losses or more when the season is over (still have to play Bama and UGA) so is that really that great of a win? Agree Clemson will have very nice wins, but you have to penalize them somewhat for the loss to Cuse, who is 4-4 on the year with a loss to Middle Tenn.

 

[MtNittany]

yes

QB got knocked out....they beat Auburn and destroyed V-Tech on the road. if they win out (that would include @NC State, @ South Carolina, & Miami (most likely).....that's a pretty nice 1-loss team resume.

QB got knocked out while they were already losing. If you can't hand the ball off and beat Sorryexcuse, well...

 

[Lion84]

I don't get the ND love either. They lost by 1 point at home to GA - we lost by 1 point on the road - the other "good" win was at home against a very over rated USC team - and what the hell happened to them this year? Stanford and Miami left so a loss is likey.

 

[MWes11]

I don't get the ND love either. They lost by 1 point at home to GA - we lost by 1 point on the road - the other "good" win was at home against a very over rated USC team - and what the hell happened to them this year? Stanford and Miami left so a loss is likey.

I hate ND, but they have some nice wins. Their loss is a "good loss" just like ours is, but they have better wins at the moment than we do. I have no problem with them being somewhere in the mix. Thought this was interesting and I am sure it has been posted...

#DaHale

✔@DavidHaleESPN
Wins vs P5 opps w/winning record:
Clemson, 6
ND, 4
Penn St, 3
UGA, 2
Miami, 1
Bama, 1
Ohio St, 1
Okla, 1
OkSt, 1
Wisc, 1
Wash, 1

 

[PSUPALY]

Nice resume, but I can't get over the loss to Syracuse. Auburn will have 4 losses or more when the season is over (still have to play Bama and UGA) so is that really that great of a win? Agree Clemson will have very nice wins, but you have to penalize them somewhat for the loss to Cuse, who is 4-4 on the year with a loss to Middle Tenn.

yeah, you could be right.....i guess we all have to concede there's a lot of football left to be played.

 

[PSUPALY]

I hate ND, but they have some nice wins. Their loss is a "good loss" just like ours is, but they have better wins at the moment than we do. I have no problem with them being somewhere in the mix. Thought this was interesting and I am sure it has been posted...

#DaHale

✔@DavidHaleESPN
Wins vs P5 opps w/winning record:
Clemson, 6
ND, 4
Penn St, 3
UGA, 2
Miami, 1
Bama, 1
Ohio St, 1
Okla, 1
OkSt, 1
Wisc, 1
Wash, 1

hmm, that's eye opening....thanks for posting.

 

[MWes11]

yeah, you could be right.....i guess we all have to concede there's a lot of football left to be played.

Exactly, and I ain't mad at that. Just handle our business and PSU has a shot. That's all we can ask for.

 

[ShinerTexas]

Ohio St only needs to lose one to be out even if they win the Big 10 Champ. No 2 loss team will make it this year.

 

[mmp121]

(1) If Alabama, Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Notre Dame win out --- I can SEE (not that I necessarily agree, but it's imaginable) a scenario where OU gets in ahead of OSU because of the head-to-head, and ND gets in ahead of OSU on strength-of-schedule.

(2) Likewise if Alabama, Miami, Wisconsin, Clemson and Notre Dame win out. Notre Dame could get #4 over Clemson.

Notre Dame and Miami play each other, so they both can't 'win out'.

 

[mmp121]

Ohio St only needs to lose one to be out even if they win the Big 10 Champ. No 2 loss team will make it this year.

You want to bet?

If OSU loses to say scUM, and make it to the B1G Championship game (and win again) they will be in the CFP.

 

[psuro]

We. Are. Doomed.

 

[4INSBU]

We just need Jimmy to beat Wisky and have Wisky beat O$U. We get in over both

 

[mmp121]

We just need Jimmy to beat Wisky and have Wisky beat O$U. We get in over both

Last time Wisky faced tO$U in the conference championship, they got throttled. This year would be the same. Wisky has played who exactly?

Hell even the CFP committee agrees and has us and tO$U ahead of a lossless Wisky.