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Are most of you seeing drastic changes in your tax refund this year?

The numbers are for full fiscal years, so 18 includes all tax payments from the previous year, 2019 will probably look uglier.

So you are saying this report was before the tax cut? It sounds like you are looking at 2018 receipts from the 2017 tax year. Also regarding the %'s an increase in spending has the same effect as a decrease in revenue, but you knew that right?
 
So you are saying this report was before the tax cut? It sounds like you are looking at 2018 receipts from the 2017 tax year. Also regarding the %'s an increase in spending has the same effect as a decrease in revenue, but you knew that right?

Nope.... the previous poster was suggesting that the revenues are down for 2018 because all the numbers weren't in yet because people and companies are still doing their taxes. That's not how it works, the 2018 revenue numbers are in as of Sept 2018.
 
Early indications, based on a draft that I've prepared for my 2018 return, are a loss of about $10k in deductions (still using itemized deductions over the standard exemption, but barely) and a sizable increase in total income tax. Likely bitten by the elimination of SALT (higher real estate taxes in the burbs plus the Philadelphia income tax). Still need to spend a bit more time reviewing the return.

In exponentially more cases than not, the reduction in the overall 2018 tax rate from the 2017 tax rate would have more than offset the loss of a simple $10,000 deduction. Based on what you are saying, without knowing your specific facts, you would fall into an EXTREMELY small percentage of individuals. Most people in your situation would have actually owed LESS Federal tax in tax year 2018 than 2017.
 
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They would have been much higher without the tax cut.

You STRONGLY disagree, based on what? Your political opinion?
50% of 100 yields the same result as 25% of 200. You seem to prefer higher rates and lower GDP (taxable income).
 
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Nope.... the previous poster was suggesting that the revenues are down for 2018 because all the numbers weren't in yet because people and companies are still doing their taxes. That's not how it works, the 2018 revenue numbers are in as of Sept 2018.
I just looked up the past and current budgets and here is what i read
year . revenue . spending
2019 . 3.4 4.4 . forecast
2018 . 3.3 4.1
2017 3.3 3.9
2016 3.2 3.8
2015 3.2 3.6

Obviously this overlaps the Obama years so it is not a political view, but if someone were to just look at this chart what would they say?
. revenue continues to inch up slowly - yes
. spending continues to increase at a faster pace -yes
. was there an OMG moment in 2018 [tax cut] that changed these trends - NO

Regarding your question to bdgan about why wouldn't revenues be much higher without the tax cut it is certainly more than opinion.
The impact of the tax cut was more heavily weighted toward business in 2018.
The GDP after averaging just under 2% growth [from a low base] for the Obama administration, rose to around 2.6% for 2018.
Wages had there first real growth in 10 years.
There are really only 3 things that changed, tax cut, regulation rollback, and consumer confidence [I would argue from the first 2]

So my question back to you would be why after 10 years of slow growth and no wage increases and after the economy has reached near full employment and the Federal reserve is starting to raise rates [both should start to slow things down] would we be seeing growth accelerate.

More importantly why isn't this a good thing? If someone said to the government
.I have a plan that will
not change the current trajectory of your revenue [see chart above]
AND
. will put more money in peoples pockets
. will allow companies to make more money thus increasing hiring, investment, and yes stock prices
are you in favor of it? Why not.
 
weak, no facts.... we are not talking about "same results" here.
I strongly believe that the tax cuts caused economic growth and that higher taxable income offset much but not all of the revenue loss from rate reduction. That's not an insane opinion.

Take your politics to the test board.
 
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I just looked up the past and current budgets and here is what i read
year . revenue . spending
2019 . 3.4 4.4 . forecast
2018 . 3.3 4.1
2017 3.3 3.9
2016 3.2 3.8
2015 3.2 3.6

Obviously this overlaps the Obama years so it is not a political view, but if someone were to just look at this chart what would they say?
. revenue continues to inch up slowly - yes
. spending continues to increase at a faster pace -yes
. was there an OMG moment in 2018 [tax cut] that changed these trends - NO

Regarding your question to bdgan about why wouldn't revenues be much higher without the tax cut it is certainly more than opinion.
The impact of the tax cut was more heavily weighted toward business in 2018.
The GDP after averaging just under 2% growth [from a low base] for the Obama administration, rose to around 2.6% for 2018.
Wages had there first real growth in 10 years.
There are really only 3 things that changed, tax cut, regulation rollback, and consumer confidence [I would argue from the first 2]

So my question back to you would be why after 10 years of slow growth and no wage increases and after the economy has reached near full employment and the Federal reserve is starting to raise rates [both should start to slow things down] would we be seeing growth accelerate.

More importantly why isn't this a good thing? If someone said to the government
.I have a plan that will
not change the current trajectory of your revenue [see chart above]
AND
. will put more money in peoples pockets
. will allow companies to make more money thus increasing hiring, investment, and yes stock prices
are you in favor of it? Why not.

But you are changing the trajectory of revenues downward as % of GDP
But you are not putting money in all pockets, not for the bottom 80% of the working population.
But the hiring trajectory/trend hasn't changed and the deficit keeps going up.
Corporations fattened their bottom lines for one year and buy back stock, which is supposed to good for the stock market (which didn't do much in 2018).

One year of increased gdp is not translating to much and estimates for 2019 are back down to levels pre-2018
 
I made one pass of my returns and I owe when I normally get $$ back. I usually plan it so that I get at least a little back, less then $1000. However, I owe $2500 this year because the personal exemptions went away for my 5 person family. My itemizations are usually less then the $24K standard deduction which should have made it a little better. We claim 0 on our W4s and still owe which sort of pisses me off that I now have to make additional withholdings. The other thing that caught me by surprise is the max $10K on other taxes which I thought was just property which would have been fine for me but it includes the state and local income taxes which is over $10K for me. However, this was my initial pass a couple weeks ago and I may have missed something.
I don't see many here talking about it, but those personal exemptions were also a killer for me.
 
I strongly believe that the tax cuts caused economic growth and that higher taxable income offset much but not all of the revenue loss from rate reduction. That's not an insane opinion.

Take your politics to the test board.
geez I thought we were on the test board for this whole thread.
 
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But you are changing the trajectory of revenues downward as % of GDP If GDP goes up [and it did] and revenue goes up more slowly [and it did] the % will drop. This is not a bad thing.
But you are not putting money in all pockets, not for the bottom 80% of the working population. Disagree, I would argue that over 90% of the bottom 80% who actually pay taxes received a tax cut. Of course if you pay no Federal taxes you wouldn't get a tax cut.
But the hiring trajectory/trend hasn't changed and the deficit keeps going up. When an economy reaches full employment [approx 4% unemployed] it is very hard to continue the trajectory of hiring. If fact the only way to continue to increase above normal population growth is if people who had left return to the workforce. This what is happening and it has surprised many economists.
Corporations fattened their bottom lines for one year and buy back stock, which is supposed to good for the stock market (which didn't do much in 2018). While socialists might not like it companies "fattening" their bottom line is a good thing either through investment and hiring or stock prices going up [with 401k's etc almost all of us are stock holders these days] Recession's rarely if ever occur when corporate profits are going up.

One year of increased gdp is not translating to much and estimates for 2019 are back down to levels pre-2018
It does appear growth will not be as good in 2019 but if you look at the difference between US growth and almost every other economy the delta is getting larger.
 
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I don't see many here talking about it, but those personal exemptions were also a killer for me.

The $10K max on state & local is a hidden killer.

The $24K standard deduction doesn't impact directly, but it does move the goalposts, so I'm losing relative to others that would have had less than $24K.
 
I don't see many here talking about it, but those personal exemptions were also a killer for me.

Per your personal exemption issue, people that DON'T itemize, and have kids, more often than not will pay less tax in 2018 than they did in 2017.

If your kid was under 17 on December 31, you will come out ahead of last year at least up through the 24% bracket. If your kid was 17 or above on December 31, you should come out slightly ahead up through the 12%, and, without doing the math, somewhere into the 22% bracket.

Remember, a credit is a dollar for dollar refund which is what the increased Child Tax Credit and Family Tax Credits are. The personal exemptions only reduced your income.
 
I changed jobs and that threw in a couple of new variables, but we have gone from a refund of a couple grand, to paying in a couple. I’ve seen on the news that a ceiling on the property tax credit is impacting some, but we aren’t in a crazy high property tax area (as opposed to NJ). We are just getting the standard deduction this year, as opposed itemized deductions.

Not a political post, just trying to gauge whether we should pay someone to look at our taxes to see what we may be missing.

My refund went up. In anticipation of changes in the tax law and since I typically got little or no refund in the past, I increased my withholding amount for the last 4 months of the year. A preliminary review of my taxes indicates that all my deductibles do not exceed the new standard deduction so my withholding produced a windfall for the year.
 
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Per your personal exemption issue, people that DON'T itemize, and have kids, more often than not will pay less tax in 2018 than they did in 2017.

If your kid was under 17 on December 31, you will come out ahead of last year at least up through the 24% bracket. If your kid was 17 or above on December 31, you should come out slightly ahead up through the 12%, and, without doing the math, somewhere into the 22% bracket.

Remember, a credit is a dollar for dollar refund which is what the increased Child Tax Credit and Family Tax Credits are. The personal exemptions only reduced your income.


The personal exemption did decrease my taxable income in the past and my kids are too old for the tax credit. Bottom line is I make too much money and didn't plan accordingly for the new tax laws that I should have researched more thoroughly. I am still bitter that we claim zero on W-4s and I still need to have additional withheld so I don't owe at tax time.
 
The personal exemption did decrease my taxable income in the past and my kids are too old for the tax credit. Bottom line is I make too much money and didn't plan accordingly for the new tax laws that I should have researched more thoroughly. I am still bitter that we claim zero on W-4s and I still need to have additional withheld so I don't owe at tax time.

If your kids are 17 or older, you more than likely still qualify for the new Family Tax Credit of $500. For a couple making $100,000, taking the $24,000 standard deduction, that comes out to the equivalent of a $4,167 tax deduction, tax exemption, or whatever you want to call it for your older children. More than last year's $4,050.

People that tell you this hurt people making under $100,000 a year are beyond brain dead. Unless they own a mansion or multiple residences where they pay a ton of property tax, which probably means they are not poor, they will in more cases than not come out far ahead over last year.

Unlike personal property, rental units, in most cases, still have no limit on their property tax and interest rate deductions. In the vast majority of cases, it is only people living in higher end residences, or have a second or third home, that will be negatively affected if they make less than $100,000.
 
Why are you opposed to paying your fair share?

Tell ya what, give every state a dollar for dollar payout and see what happens to the taker states. They wil have to increase state taxes. I as a nyer am paying more than my fair share
 
I strongly believe that the tax cuts caused economic growth and that higher taxable income offset much but not all of the revenue loss from rate reduction. That's not an insane opinion.
Take your politics to the test board.

When you shift the tax burden on middle class in blue states while still driving the deficit to 22 trillion, you are fiscally irresponsible.
 
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When you shift the tax burden on middle class in blue states while still driving the deficit to 22 trillion, you are fiscally irresponsible.
The median family income in this country is approximately $60k and almost nobody in that income range had their taxes go up. In fact almost nobody below 6 figures.

I wouldn't have cut individual taxes because I'm concerned about the debt. That said I don't think the tax cuts contributed more than $50b to the debt because higher taxable incomes created an offset. Entitlements and interest on the debt were the biggest contributors to the increased deficit. Also spending for defense and social programs.
 
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Because it depends on how much was withheld through out the year. Your new employer may have not taken as much out as the prior one. And did the new job pay more, bumping you into a higher bracket? Any kids drop off the deductions?

What matters most is the total tax owed, not what the refund/payment would be.

I've heard a boat load of people whining that they are paying more, when really they just didn't have as much withheld during the year. I myself may not have adjusted accordingly. No big deal.
 
The median family income in this country is approximately $60k and almost nobody in that income range had their taxes go up. In fact almost nobody below 6 figures.

I wouldn't have cut individual taxes because I'm concerned about the debt. That said I don't think the tax cuts contributed more than $50b. Entitlements and interest on the debt were the biggest contributors. Also spending for defense and social programs.

Entitlements were not the biggest contributors to the deficit, the biggest contributors to the debt for 2018 were reduced corp tax receipts and interest on the debt.

Earlier in the thread some was talk that 2018 revenues weren't done yet because we are in tax season now. The 2018 revenues are done from an accounting perspective, but with the impacts of 2017 tax season in the numbers. I found this statement in the CBO reports relative to the 2018 fiscal year receipts/revenues.

"Non-withheld payments of income taxes rose by $87 billion (or 16 percent). Most of that increase occurred in April, when taxpayers made their final payments of taxes for 2017."

So revenues are artificially high for 2018 by $87B simply because the way people/corps did their taxes in 2017. Based on that little tidbit you could easily see that revenues were down for 2018. It will be interesting to see when the 2019 revenue numbers are done, with a full year of tax cuts on the books and a slowing economy, it could be a really ugly year for revenues in 2019.

FY 2018 (2.8% inflation for the FY)
Revenues were up 0.4% (14B)
Corp tax receipts down 31% (-92B)

Total Spending was up 3.2%
SS, Medicare and Medicaid were up 2.5% (48B)
Military/DOD was up 7% (38B)
Interest was up 19.8% (61B)
All other gov spending was down 1.2% (-14B)
 
My biggest complaint is that our charitable contributions no longer benefit our return. I donate for other reasons, but I can see some people really reducing their charitable contributions because they will not get the tax benefit.
They still do if you give enough....
 
That is the one thing that I really hate about the new tax law. Everyone should be able to deduct charitable giving. Even those that don't itemize. Changing that part of the law is really going to hurt giving, moving forward.
If you're overall tax burden is lower, then you'll have more to give to charity. Simple concept really.
 
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I think people in high property tax areas are going to feel significant pain -- their taxes go up significantly but worse, their houses are worth less. But I guess that was the intent -- punish NY and NJ for being blue
No. High tax states now need to hold their state and local politicians accountable for their high tax burdens, not the federal tax code.
 
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It sounds like you don't want to pay your fair share to the fed government. You believe your effective tax rate being paid to the federal government should be less than other people with an identical income who live in other states.

I am happy to pay what I owe. I see it as my patriotic duty. Even if I owe thousands more this year, fine.

But I would prefer I didn’t subsidize taker states. Mainly southern takers.
 
I owe $6,000 more than I usually pay due to the decrease in deductibles.

Did my taxes over the weekend. Paying about 2/3 more than previous years. Had to take the standard deduction and I had probably donated more to charity in 2018 than ever before. Rethinking now how much I donate going forward.
 
AKB: Home Energy Tax Credit (sorry if already covered in this thread but since we are on the subject of taxes...)

I installed new windows this past year but it looks like I can't get any tax credit for it (at least at the moment). When I went through Turbo Tax and entered all the info it said my tax credit for the new windows was $0. So I started looking into it and noticed that form 5695 only includes some solar and geothermal credits. Then I discovered that some of the tax credits have not yet been restored for 2018 which would explain why I don't qualify (not sure if this is really the case but that seems to be the information I'm getting). If this credit eventually gets restored can I carry forward to next year to claim the credit? It sounds like this tax credit will be (might be?) restored at some point but no idea when.
 
I am happy to pay what I owe. I see it as my patriotic duty. Even if I owe thousands more this year, fine.

But I would prefer I didn’t subsidize taker states. Mainly southern takers.
Quick, somebody call the Whaaaaambulance.
 
This is an interesting thread. For all but a small minority, the tax revisions pale in comparison to changes that would be needed to balance the budget.

The diversion continues. Smaller issues in "relative fairness" consume our debate while we continue to ignore the much larger issues that, if unaddressed, could leave all in ruin. It is at a point where, given the extreme polarities in our politics -- within both government and society -- we cannot even begin to have an educated, civil discussion.
 
I’m confused. I am fine with paying taxes, where is the whining?
Yes, you're fine with paying taxes, so long as you don't think that people you deem unworthy are the beneficiaries of your payments. You are selfish.
 
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Did my taxes over the weekend. Paying about 2/3 more than previous years. Had to take the standard deduction and I had probably donated more to charity in 2018 than ever before. Rethinking now how much I donate going forward.

If you paid 1.67% more Federal tax than last year (if I understood you right), either you are earning WELL into the 100s of thousands of dollars, own a TON of personal property, live in the Taj Mahal, got a BIG raise, or have some other individual idiosyncrasy you are not telling us about. You must be more specific if you are going to just throw that out there.

There ARE some HIGHLY UNUSUAL circumstances on the lower end that could cause this, but 99 and 99/100 percent of the people that see that much of a jump are usually at the higher end of the income spectrum with a LOT of personal property.

My guess is that you are not poor.
 
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Or you could be making well in to the 100s but live in a place where that is middle class.
 
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