We will see how this El Nino winds down.
Typically an El Niño ends on a warm blip, as the residual solar warmed water sloshes back across the equator toward the western Pacific. As such, the end phases naturally vents off its final shot of stored solar energy.
From the review...
Typically an El Niño ends on a warm blip, as the residual solar warmed water sloshes back across the equator toward the western Pacific. As such, the end phases naturally vents off its final shot of stored solar energy.
From the review...
We might expect the global surface temperatures to peak in February or March of 2016, assuming 2016 surface temperatures mimic those of 1998.
Surface temperatures remained elevated through to the second half of 1998, when they began to show noteworthy drops.
Once again, we could expect surface temperatures to continue to drop in 2017 in response to the 2016/17 La Niña…if one forms, which is likely.
CLOSING
The responses of global surface and lower troposphere temperatures in 2015 are what we would expect for a strong El Niño.
In 2016, if global surface and lower troposphere temperatures continue to respond as they had to the 1997/98 El Niño,
Surface temperatures remained elevated through to the second half of 1998, when they began to show noteworthy drops.
Once again, we could expect surface temperatures to continue to drop in 2017 in response to the 2016/17 La Niña…if one forms, which is likely.
CLOSING
The responses of global surface and lower troposphere temperatures in 2015 are what we would expect for a strong El Niño.
In 2016, if global surface and lower troposphere temperatures continue to respond as they had to the 1997/98 El Niño,
we can expect global surface and lower troposphere temperatures to be higher in 2016 than they were in 2015.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/...-responses-to-the-199798-and-201516-el-ninos/
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