As the playoffs turn: CBS projects losing the Big-10 CCG wouldn't be so bad

[Jerry]

Link below. I mean, all these projections and twists and turns and calculations are like a soap opera. Downright addictive.

Anyway, CBS's resident expert on the topic projects that if we lose to Oregon, we would then fall to the #6 playoff seed and get a 1st-round home game against Indiana, with the winner having a 2nd-round matchup with SMU.

Oregon, on the other hand, his projected CCG winner, would get the 1st-round bye but then be looking at a 2nd-round game against either Ohio State or Tennessee. He sees the Buckeyes falling to #8 in Tuesday's ranking.

I get that projections by "experts" are meaningless...but they're fun. Anyway, our mission remains the same: play the game...win the game...let the chips fall. Still, if this guy is right -- his track record is pretty good -- the world would not end with a loss to the Ducks:

Bowl projections: Ohio State falls to No. 8 seed in College Football Playoff, SMU earns first-round bye

The Buckeyes missed out on a trip to the Big Ten title game following their stunning loss to rival Michigan

www.cbssports.com

 

[Obliviax]

So, if I understand this correctly, we will play in the B1G championship. If we win we get a bye right into the quarter-finals. If we lose we get a first-round home game. I've read the committee has said that they will not penalize a team for their championship game performance. If true, we'd be at six, worst case. We are getting a #3 ranking by most sites. (before the official one comes out)

1. Oregon
2. TX
3. PSU
4. ND
5. GA
6. tOSU
7. TENN
8. Indy
9. SMU
10. Boise
11. AL
12. Ole Miss
13. S Carolina
14. Miami
15. AZ State
16. Clem
17. BYU
18. Iowa St.
19. CO
20. UNLV

 

[AWS1022]

So, if I understand this correctly, we will play in the B1G championship. If we win we get a bye right into the quarter-finals. If we lose we get a first-round home game. I've read the committee has said that they will not penalize a team for their championship game performance. If true, we'd be at six, worst case. We are getting a #3 ranking by most sites. (before the official one comes out)

1. Oregon
2. TX
3. PSU
4. ND
5. GA
6. tOSU
7. TENN
8. Indy
9. SMU
10. Boise
11. AL
12. Ole Miss
13. S Carolina
14. Miami
15. AZ State
16. Clem
17. BYU
18. Iowa St.
19. CO
20. UNLV

The committee said that when they thought PSU wouldn’t be in a championship game….now that they are, I’m quite sure the rules will change.

 

[Obliviax]

The committee said that when they thought PSU wouldn’t be in a championship game….now that they are, I’m quite sure the rules will change.

True...they certainly screwed over FL state last year but that was a 4 team playoff after they lost their star QB. With a 12-team format, you've got more leeway. Plus, even if we happen to lose, we'd still have a two-loss record-tying several other two-loss teams who will have home games in the first round.

 

[AWS1022]

True...they certainly screwed over FL state last year but that was a 4 team playoff after they lost their star QB. With a 12-team format, you've got more leeway. Plus, even if we happen to lose, we'd still have a two-loss record-tying several other two-loss teams who will have home games in the first round.

But there are more ways to casually screw a team now with 12 teams…it’s not all or nothing these days.

 

[Jerry]

So, if I understand this correctly, we will play in the B1G championship. If we win we get a bye right into the quarter-finals. If we lose we get a first-round home game. I've read the committee has said that they will not penalize a team for their championship game performance. If true, we'd be at six, worst case. We are getting a #3 ranking by most sites. (before the official one comes out)

1. Oregon
2. TX
3. PSU
4. ND
5. GA
6. tOSU
7. TENN
8. Indy
9. SMU
10. Boise
11. AL
12. Ole Miss
13. S Carolina
14. Miami
15. AZ State
16. Clem
17. BYU
18. Iowa St.
19. CO
20. UNLV

The CBS projection, which in only their take, would, if accurate, pose two interesting alternatives:

A) Lose to Oregon, get a #6 playoff seed, have a home game against Indiana in the first round, then a potential matchup with SMU in the 2nd round.

OR:

B) Beat Oregon, get a 1st-round bye and then the winner of Ohio State versus Tennessee in the 2nd round.

I'll be honest. I think (A) is a more likely path to the semifinals than (B). Let's face it, Ohio State is in Franklin's head...sort of like Michigan is in Day's head.

Of course it goes without saying that the CBS projections have no bearing on the outcomes of actual games nor are they certain predictors of actual committee ranking.

But even if the projections were accurate, Objective Number One is obviously to defeat Oregon...and then let the chips fall where they may. Beating Oregon and thereby winning a conference championship would by itself be a fantastic achievement.

 

[Obliviax]

The CBS projection, which in only their take, would, if accurate, pose two interesting alternatives:

A) Lose to Oregon, get a #6 playoff seed, have a home game against Indiana in the first round, then a potential matchup with SMU in the 2nd round.

OR:

B) Beat Oregon, get a 1st-round bye and then the winner of Ohio State versus Tennessee in the 2nd round.

I'll be honest. I think (A) is a more likely path to the semifinals than (B). Let's face it, Ohio State is in Franklin's head...sort of like Michigan is in Day's head.

Of course it goes without saying that the CBS projections have no bearing on the outcomes of actual games nor are they certain predictors of actual committee ranking.

But even if the projections were accurate, Objective Number One is obviously to defeat Oregon...and then let the chips fall where they may. Beating Oregon and thereby winning a conference championship would by itself be a fantastic achievement.

yeah. a lot of that is because the 12 team format is still messed up. They have to be honest and come to the conclusion that a 2 loss tOSU is a more difficult draw than SMU. These automatic bids for conferences not named SEC or B1G are bogus.

 

[doctornick]

I have a hard time seeing Indiana as lower than 9. I certainly don’t see a team like Arizona St being seeded above them.

 

[Delcolion915]

I have done over 20 simulations in my head and in every one we are playing Alabama at home