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Betting against Warren Buffet

rumble_lion

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Aug 7, 2011
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Even you think Warren Buffet is a left wing liberal socialist would you take a bet against his investment advice?

Somebody did and not surprising they aren't doing so good.

And the world's most famous investor has put his money where his mouth is. In 2008 he entered into a bet with an American asset management firm that the main US stock market index, the S&P 500, would outperform a group of five hedge funds over a 10-year period.

The results of the seventh year of the bet have just been announced - and Mr Buffett, and the humble index tracking fund, are decisively in the lead.

In 2014 the S&P 500 tracker fund chosen to represent the index in the bet rose by 13.6pc. The average gain for the hedge funds was just 5.6pc, according to Fortune magazine, which has been monitoring the bet annually.

Since the bet was taken out, the index fund has risen by 63.5pc. The hedge funds, which were picked by Protégé Partners, a New York money manager, are up by about 20pc (the exact figure is not known because not all the hedge funds have yet reported their figures).

The tracker has beaten the hedge funds in each of the past six years. Only in the first year of the bet did the hedge funds "win", falling by 24pc amid the turmoil of the financial crisis against 37pc for the tracker.

Whoever loses the bet at the end of the 10 years has to pay at least $1m (£660,000) to a charity chosen by the winner.

Even the hedge fund champions now concede that Mr Buffett is likely to win the wager, saying that only a severe fall in the stock market could see the hedge funds back in the running.

Ted Seides, the Protégé partner who in 2007 negotiated the bet with Mr Buffett, said: "The odds now are that we'll need to see a severe market contraction for our side of the ledger to stage an epic comeback."
 
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