Basketball Big Ten Basketball Tournament Seeding Probabilities

[Richie O]

 

[sss]

So your saying there's a chance for a double bye.

 

[ryoder1]

This says the highest probability is an 11 seed. If the probabilities hold we play Minny in the first round and if we win then Iowa. Not a bad draw. This must predict we lose 2 of our last 3 reg season games if not all 3.

 

[Erial_Lion]

This is a great tool to use to create your own scenarios...

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

 

[Erial_Lion]

This says the highest probability is an 11 seed. If the probabilities hold we play Minny in the first round and if we win then Iowa. Not a bad draw. This must predict we lose 2 of our last 3 reg season games if not all 3.

Depending on what Wisconsin does, it's not completely unlikely for us to go 2-1 and still end up as the 11....they'd need to win at Michigan or beat Purdue at home (along with beating Minnesota away).

 

[ryoder1]

Depending on what Wisconsin does, it's not completely unlikely for us to go 2-1 and still end up as the 11....they'd need to win at Michigan or beat Purdue at home (along with beating Minnesota away).

If we go 2-1 then I think we finish higher than Wisky and get the 10 seed. Don't see how Wisky beats Purdue at home or Mich on the road.

Let's think about this based on the probabilities. Do we want the 10 seed or 11 seed? Mich and Rutgers have the highest probability for the 7 seed. If we go 2-1 then get the 10 seed then lose to Mich or Rutgers we very well may not get in. 19 total wins. Not definite we don't but certainly dicey. If we go 2-1 and Wisky beats either Purdue or Mich (and of course Minny) then they are the 10. We then get a golden opportunity to notch win 20 against Minny as the 11 seed and probably stamp our ticket. Should we be cheering for the 11 seed and of course going at least 2-1 to finish out?

 

[ryoder1]

This is a great tool to use to create your own scenarios...

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

Yes, I like this. I changed Nebby to beating Sparty (game at Neb) and we win both home games. That results in us as a 10 and needing to play Mich in the first rd. I don't like that matchup with Dickerson but maybe we repeat the demolition put on them in HV.

 

[Erial_Lion]

If we go 2-1 then I think we finish higher than Wisky and get the 10 seed. Don't see how Wisky beats Purdue at home or Mich on the road.

Let's think about this based on the probabilities. Do we want the 10 seed or 11 seed? Mich and Rutgers have the highest probability for the 7 seed. If we go 2-1 then get the 10 seed then lose to Mich or Rutgers we very well may not get in. 19 total wins. Not definite we don't but certainly dicey. If we go 2-1 and Wisky beats either Purdue or Mich (and of course Minny) then they are the 10. We then get a golden opportunity to notch win 20 against Minny as the 11 seed and probably stamp our ticket. Should we be cheering for the 11 seed and of course going at least 2-1 to finish out?

Beating Minnesota would be meaningless, and only lead to the possibility of a bad loss. A quad 4 win does no good, even if it moves the win total. We'd be in better shape with the 10 seed.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Yes, I like this. I changed Nebby to beating Sparty (game at Neb) and we win both home games. That results in us as a 10 and needing to play Mich in the first rd. I don't like that matchup with Dickerson but maybe we repeat the demolition put on them in HV.

I also went down the rabbit hole of how we can get the 2 seed...what an insane season in the Big Ten.

 

[ryoder1]

I also went down the rabbit hole of how we can get the 2 seed...what an insane season in the Big Ten.

If we go 3-0 then you never know. The crazy thing is how many teams at 7 or 8 losses, half the conference. 8 conf losses is a double bye or even 9.