Since 1998 (the start of the BCS) Ohio State (two times) is the only northern school that has won the national championship. With the population shift to the south I really have to question if a northern team can still win a national championship.
Can a northern team win the FBS national championship anymore?
- Thread starter dcf4psu
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Well, they have to get invited first...kind of hard to win it when you’re not in it.
I mean Ohio State did it 4 years ago. You could really make the same statement about "Teams not in the southeast".
Everyone is playing the same game. Everyone has access to the same pool of recruits. If you can recruit well enough, you can beat anyone. It might be a little harder to pull kids up north, but its not impossible. And as for Penn State, we've demonstrated recruiting success in the DMV area and in Jersey, areas still with heavy talent. If Seider and crew can make more inroads in Florida, Penn State will have their shot at it.
It's also worth noting that Clemson has not recruited as well as Ohio State or Alabama, though its within striking distance. You don't necessarily need all the best players (it helps a lot), but you do need to have a transcendent QB if you don't. And great offensive gameplanning and successful aggression are big too.
Everyone is playing the same game. Everyone has access to the same pool of recruits. If you can recruit well enough, you can beat anyone. It might be a little harder to pull kids up north, but its not impossible. And as for Penn State, we've demonstrated recruiting success in the DMV area and in Jersey, areas still with heavy talent. If Seider and crew can make more inroads in Florida, Penn State will have their shot at it.
It's also worth noting that Clemson has not recruited as well as Ohio State or Alabama, though its within striking distance. You don't necessarily need all the best players (it helps a lot), but you do need to have a transcendent QB if you don't. And great offensive gameplanning and successful aggression are big too.
The issue in my opinion is Total Scholarships / Athletes.
The north, and the west, have several smaller basketball programs along with their top tier football programs. Look at PA and NJ for example, the number of programs in each state is considerable.
In the south, in general, the schools are just catching up to the athletes. This is what IMO has brought down UF/FSU from their perennial perch since the 90s. The state went from four Div 1 football programs to eight or nine. Same goes for basketball.
Compare NJ or PA with FL in the below map. And look at Texas...
So to answer your question, when the number of programs in the south catches up with the number of athletes the world will flatten again,.
LdN
ahh the ole population shift myth. While it is true that the south is growing mainly to retirees, of the top 20 states by population, 12 are northern.
I have another theory. More educated people won't allow their kids to play football.
I played and would not ever allow my son to play.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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I think these are the only teams who can/will ever win a NC going forward:
Pac 12 - USC, Oregon
SEC - LSU, Auburn, Bama, Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia
Big Ten - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Big XII - Oklahoma, Texas
ACC - Clemson, Florida State
Notre Dame
The last time any of these schools didn't win a NC was Miami, in 2001. Maybe a Nebraska, or Wisconsin, or Washington, or Tennessee sneaks in there, but really, that's about it with how big a role money has become.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
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Right. OSU has won it. Oregon played for it, ND got to the playoffs and, among others, PSU and others (even Michigan) nearly got into the playoff.
Yes, a northern team can win it all. My memory is fuzzy, but didn't THE Ohio State University beat Alabama a few years back? With a 3rd string QB?
I'd love to see an expanded playoff where a lower seeded southern team has to travel to a place like University Park in December or January. I'd even watch if they had to go to Columbus or Ann Arbor.
It won't happen.
I'd love to see an expanded playoff where a lower seeded southern team has to travel to a place like University Park in December or January. I'd even watch if they had to go to Columbus or Ann Arbor.
It won't happen.
I was ready to disagree and then saw your last paragraph. Yeah, that's pretty much it.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Sure. But, already 18 years since a team I didn't list won one. Pretty f'n boring.
I may be on an Island, here...but I’m adding Syracuse to your list.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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LOL. Gone are the days when a program like Georgia Tech, or Colorado, or BYU can win a championship. Hell, if you add Miami, Nebraska, and Tennessee to the list I made you would have to go back to 1991 to find a NC team not on the list (Washington).
I would add a few teams to the list. I think UCLA if they ever figure out how to not screw the pooch. I would put Washington above Oregon.
20 years ago - you wouldn't have had Oregon or Clemson on that list. Both have increased there football commitment.
But I for the most part agree with your sentiment. I think this will be the biggest driver to expanding the playoffs. Teams like Pitt/BC/NW/etc can't expect to make the playoff. They may put pressure on their leagues to have conference champs automatically make the playoff to give them a chance.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Point is the number of teams with a real chance of winning is really, really small if and until there is an automatic bid for conference champions. And Clemson won a NC in '81. UCLA could do it but they're not invested in football there and won't sell out to win.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Sure. As soon as this fake Southern intramural Invitational is scrapped. Ohio State deserved to be in over both Oklahoma and Notre Dame this year, but never got the chance. They had the athletes to match up with both of ESPN's two final beauty queens, but got left out so ESPN could promote Notre Dame for a month as being a member of their new ACC linear Network.
What people don't realize is that if Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Jersey were all one state, they would be still be smaller than either California or Texas. But even though Pennohjersey (as I would call this new state : ^ ) ) would be smaller, it would actually produce more future NFL talent than either California or Texas. So the football players are here. Many of our best players just like the paychecks down south better.
Dont think everyone is playing the same game -- not pointing to the one on the field by the way--
your list is way too long. right now only Clemson and Alabama belong on the list
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Midnighter: You forgot Cal.
But seriously, I think you are correct. The number of schools with a viable chance of contending tor an NC is very small. I would add that it is not just the money programs devote to football. It is also the operating environment they create and foster. Meaning things like lower admissions standards, classes tailored for academically challenged athletes, a less rigorous academic curriculum in general, and a student demographic that is academically less competitive. I believe Alabama and Clemson feature ALL of those things.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Midnighter: You forgot Cal.
But seriously, I think you are correct. The number of schools with a viable chance of contending tor an NC is very small. I would add that it is not just the money programs devote to football. It is also the operating environment they create and foster. Meaning things like lower admissions standards, classes tailored for academically challenged athletes, a less rigorous academic curriculum in general, and a student demographic that is academically less competitive. I believe Alabama and Clemson feature ALL of those things.
Right - the playing field is not level. One way to help would be to change the playoff to include all major conference champions; once you get to the dance, even though your chance is small, at least you have one. As it stands, you're not getting invited for any number of ridiculous subjective reasons (don't pass eye test, have the 'worst win' but 'best loss' WTF?). Having said that, until ND joins a conference and there is some scheduling standardization, the schools who game the system (Bama, Clemson, most of the SEC, etc.) are going to continue to win.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
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I was thinking Washington belonged. And some others will come on eventually. OR after the Nike $ and OKST after Pickens’ $ some to mind. But the list isn’t as important as the point, which was a good one. And I agree there’s little expectation of many new greats, which has made the landscape at the top pretty boring for way too long.
Of course, even a salary cap and free agency hasn’t leveled the field for all teams in the NFL. And I believe your list is longer than the list of all teams to have ever won a Super Bowl.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Agree - and at least with the NFL, the framework is in place to help the bad teams get better (schedules, draft slots). Of course, bad decisions hurt a lot in the NFL and it can take years to recover (see: Washington, Cleveland).
As for the Super Bowl, there are 12 teams who have never won, but eight of those have played for the Super Bowl at least once. So, only four of 32 have never participated in the Super Bowl. In college football, going back to 1980, only 21 teams have won a National Championship (including years where there were multiple champions). Several of those will never win again (BYU, Colorado, Georgia Tech).
So pretty much the same teams that have vied for it the last 50 years, throw in Miami and Nebraska
Ever? Sure, every so often a northern school will catch lightening in a bottle. But it's not going to happen that often. Geographic distribution of top prospects favors the South. That could change if one team dominates on the West Coast e.g. USC in the Carroll era.
Pennsylvania is actually an aging state. We have a lot of retirees moving in to my area, and actually State College is a fairly popular retirement area. I'm on the alumni board at my state college, and the dwindling number of Pa. high school graduates is concerning to us.
When Babers goes the success goes with him. They don’t have the resources to find anyone close to his level. It quite frankly amazes someone hasn’t offered him big money already. He is a West Coast guy born in Hawaii, but also has a ton of experience in the Midwest. I could see a program like Illinois going hard after him when the figure out Lovie isn’t the answer. He is paid in the lower tier of ACC coach’s now.
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It is truly in the best interests of the sport if all conference champs get a bid. Regionalizing the playoffs to the southeast teams is a very bad idea for the future of CFB. If it lasts much longer, the damage may become permanent.
The system needs to give some semblance of hope to more fan bases than it does. This sport needs a shot in the arm, and fast. An 8-team playoff that includes conference champs is just what the doctor ordered.
short term the only way it changes is if Saban or Dabo take a job at OSU, UM, ND, etc
Then the power balance shifts to Kirby Smart and UGa and the newbies at Bama and Clemson fight for his leavings, unless those
schools can replicate what they lost, which is certainly not a given.
I'm not going to diminish the coaching abilities of Saban and Swinney. They are likely to win titles at the schools you mention, but less frequently. Change in geography makes it more difficult to accumulate the talent advantages they currently enjoy.
If there is a school to challenge Alabama and Clemson, it's Oklahoma. Lincoln Riley has shown he can assemble offensive juggernauts. By hiring Alex Grinch he's recognized that he needs to fix his defense to break the duopoly.
Difficult. I can only speak factually about Ohio State. Ohio high school football was always the foundation of the OSU program. 28% fewer Ohio high school kids play football as opposed to 10 years ago. 40 years ago, the majority of OSU players were from Ohio. Now the majority is from out of state. College football seems to be going the way of baseball, the best is played in the south. This is due to population shifts, culture, climate, oversigning etc. I am going to guess that many southern schools are also more lenient on academics. I say this knowing that OSU is not as stringent as say Northwestern is.
For sure, a Western team such as USC can win. If Urban Meyer ends up there, he will probably win multiple championships. Don't think he will, but if he did he would be a crazy good recruiter there.
On Sept. 1, Greg McElroy, former Alabama qb, who knows something about talented teams stated that "if there was a more talented team than OSU, he would like to see it." https://twitter.com/gregmcelroy Chris Fowler stated: "A day @OhioStateFB practice. Very. Very. Impressive physically. Elite athletes EVERYWHERE." [Sept. 12 tweet]
The reason OSU under performed on defense this year was horrendous defensive coaching. (Bill Davis with the LBs in particular) With good defensive coaching, it would have been interesting to see what OSU could have done. Don't know whether OSU would have won, but it could have competed with Clemson and Alabama based on the athletic ability of its players.
On the bigger point, college football is all coaching and recruiting. Great coaches reside outside of the South, and the recruits will go to where the great coaches are.
On Sept. 1, Greg McElroy, former Alabama qb, who knows something about talented teams stated that "if there was a more talented team than OSU, he would like to see it." https://twitter.com/gregmcelroy Chris Fowler stated: "A day @OhioStateFB practice. Very. Very. Impressive physically. Elite athletes EVERYWHERE." [Sept. 12 tweet]
The reason OSU under performed on defense this year was horrendous defensive coaching. (Bill Davis with the LBs in particular) With good defensive coaching, it would have been interesting to see what OSU could have done. Don't know whether OSU would have won, but it could have competed with Clemson and Alabama based on the athletic ability of its players.
On the bigger point, college football is all coaching and recruiting. Great coaches reside outside of the South, and the recruits will go to where the great coaches are.
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