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Cawlidge Hawkey This Week (2/26-2/29/2020) - PSU B1G Champions!!!

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NittanyLionFan

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So, we all know what needs to happen from the earlier thread... PSU leads OSU and Minnesota by 4 points and Notre Dame by 6 points in the conference standings and owns the tie-breakers over all three. So, the Lions need a SOL or outright loss by OSU and Minnesota each tonight or tomorrow night (and the ND games don't matter outside of a potential shared regular-season championship) to clinch the No. 1 seed in the tournament. At worst, hopefully one of those drops PSU's way so that they finish no worse than 2nd in the standings and have home ice through the conference tournament semifinal. Wisconsin @ OSU at 6 PM and Michigan @ Minnesota at 8:30 tonight (both on BTN) and Michigan State @ ND at 7 PM on NBCSN. Then Michigan @ Minnesota (FSN) and Michigan State @ Notre Dame (NBCPhi) at 6 PM and Wisconsin @ OSU at 8 PM (BTN) tomorrow night.

Other games of interest... Sacred Heart beat AIC on Wednesday (+) and Merrimack got pounded by BC last night (-). WMU (16) @ NDk (3), Denver (6) @ St. Cloud, and Bemidji State (11) @ Minnesota State (2) tonight and tomorrow night and Clarkson (7) @ Cornell (1) tomorrow night could help PSU or just otherwise be interesting games. WMU has been surging of late and St. Cloud went 1-0-1-1 at then-No. 1 NDk last weekend. Certainly could use some other upsets ahead of PSU in the Pairwise!
 
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OSU - Wisconsin tied 0-0 end of 1st. Wisky outshooting OSU 17-12 (no need to revisit the SOG convo lol).

2nd period - 8 min left - Badgers up 2-1. Trailed 0-1 5 min in. Out at dinner with college development staffer for my wife's college (with wife lol... staffer is PSU alumna lol), so might not get back to this until 3rd period.
 
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About 4 minutes left, Wisconsin up 3-2 over OSU. PP goal! They actually scored twice on that PP... not sure why the first was disallowed (was listening on radio, but had to turn off right about then... now on BTN!).

2:28 left... Wisconsin still up 3-2... OSU s/b pulling Napier soon...

0:45 left... still 3-2....

Whoo hoo!!! Badgers win 3-2!!! PSU guaranteed at least 2nd place now, pending outcome of the Minnesota series.
 
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Michigan scores!!! 1-0 over Minnesota. 15:31 left in 1st period. Yes, it pained me to add those happy exclamation marks after the first sentence, lol. ;-)

Michigan getting good pressure and going on a PP with ~9:39 left in the 1st, still up 1-0...

Minnesota now taking some control with about 3:46 left in the 1st... Michigan still up 1-0...

1st period ends with Michigan leading 1-0.
 
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Ok, I am out for another period as I get my youngest kid to bed (in trouble for letting her stay up late so that I could catch end of OSU game lol). Keep it up Michigan!
 
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Clarkson (7) tied at Colgate 1-1 (down in the mid 40s in the PWR) and St. Cloud leading No. 6 Denver 4-1 end of 2nd.

Also... UConn upset No. 8 UMass 3-2 and No. 11 Bemidji State update No. 2 Minnesota State 3-1.
 
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Crap. Michigan gets a 5-minute major with 6:33 left. Leading 2-1.

Was called a 2-minute but upgraded to a 5 following review.

Michigan PK looking good so far...

Minnesota scores half-way through the 5-minute. 2-2. Another 2:30 on the major.

Major over. 2-2. 1:20 left.
 
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If this goes to the 2nd OT, Minnesota has 4 SOWs (!) this season whereas Michigan has 1.

Both teams with good scoring opportunities late. 36 seconds left in OT1.

Going to the 2nd OT! Gotta give the advantage to the Gophers at home in the 3x3.

Half way through the 2nd OT. Each team with good opportunities. Michigan had a bad line change that almost cost them!

Another bad line change for Michigan, but Minnesota off sides. 62 seconds left.

Going to the shoot out!

Rnd 1 - Minnesota miss (off goal post), Michigan miss
Rnd 2 - Minnesota miss, Michigan hits it!

Whoo hoo!!! Minnesota with the SOL leaves PSU with the No. 1 seed!!!
 
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Definitely cool for PSU to clinch its first regular season conference hockey championship and the No. 1 seed!!! Not to fret too much, but the team will have a two-week layover before they host a semi on March 14th. I hope that they keep it moving in the off-time and come out ready to play in two weeks! This should also clinch the NCAA bid if it ever was in jeopardy, since the worst that can happen is that PSU would lose one game in the conference tourney. WE ARE!
 
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St. Cloud state held on to upset Denver (6) 5-1. Denver was just ahead of PSU in the PWR... not sure if that upset will move PSU up into a tie with others for 4th.
 
MJG-90 said:
Well, Minnesota can still tie us but we win the tiebreaker and get the bye.
Click to expand...

Correct. If we lose, there could be a crazy four way tie for second place. We would lose that tie- breaker as well. Just heard it on the radio. Can't remember all of the details.Too many ties.

Penn State should be a lock for the NCAA's. I think we have to win the BigTen Tourney.
 
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STPGopherfan said:
Correct. If we lose, there could be a crazy four way tie for second place. We would lose that tie- breaker as well. Just heard it on the radio. Can't remember all of the details.Too many ties.
Click to expand...
Crazy. ND and Michigan can finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th and MSU can finish anywhere from 4th (think that they lose the tie-breaker with OSU if OSU loses tomorrow night) to 6th. Too many scenarios to think about it, lol. Go get those two points tomorrow night! ;-)

PSU - 1

Scenario 1 - All Home Teams Win
2 Minnesota 41
3 OSU 40
4 ND 38
5 Michigan 35
6 MSU 34
7 Wisconsin 23

Scenario 2 - All Road Teams Win
2 Michigan 38 (more conference Ws)
3 Minnesota 38
4 MSU 37 (more conference Ws)
5 Ohio State 37
6 Notre Dame 35
7 Wisconsin 26

Scenario 3+
CHAOS!!!
 
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So, it seems to me that the NCAA is pretty set for us at this point. We are very likely to be a 2 seed no matter what happens in our games (I don't think we could get to a 1 seed even by winning the Big Ten tournament and I think we are probably going to stay as a 2 seed even with a loss).

We know we're playing in Allentown. Since it is the "Midwest" bracket, we'll get a team like Minnesota St/Deluth/Denver as the one seed in the bracket so we should have decided home ice advantage.

How does the Big Ten tournament work? I think we host the semis and final as the 1 seed, right?
 
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doctornick said:
How does the Big Ten tournament work? I think we host the semis and final as the 1 seed, right?
Click to expand...
Yes - correct. Host one of the semis (winner of 4/5 match-up, I think) and, assuming a "W," host the final. The No. 1 seed doesn't have a good track record, though... the layoff can be an issue! It would suck to lose that semi, as they would have another layoff before the NCAAs (they are now a 100% lock). Gotta get that "W" in the semi to keep mo going into the NCAAs!

CORRECTION: No. 1 seed hosts the lowest-advancing seed in the semis while the next highest seed to No. 1 hosts the other team.

https://bigten.org/sports/2019/12/20/2020HKYTournament.aspx
 
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So, current PPM has PSU anywhere between a 1 and 3 seed based on 2,510 Monte Carlo simulations (using KRACH).

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

PWR / % Chance / % Chance Min / Seed
4 / 0.3% / 0.3% / 1
5 / 3.0% / 3.3% / 2
6 / 13.0% / 16.3% / 2
7 / 26.0% / 42.3% / 2
8 / 29.0% / 71.3% / 2
9 / 20.0% / 91.3% / 3
10 / 7.0% / 98.3% / 3
11 / 2.0% / 100.0% / 3
12 / 0.2% / 100.0% / 3
(Note: some missing fractions are causing rounding issues!)

EDIT: Slightly updated results this morning (2/29) based on full 20,000 simulations (perhaps I caught it in the midst of an auto-update last night!), but essentially the same picture with a slightly worse chance at a No. 1 seed at 0.2%.
 
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doctornick said:
So, it seems to me that the NCAA is pretty set for us at this point. We are very likely to be a 2 seed no matter what happens in our games (I don't think we could get to a 1 seed even by winning the Big Ten tournament and I think we are probably going to stay as a 2 seed even with a loss).

We know we're playing in Allentown. Since it is the "Midwest" bracket, we'll get a team like Minnesota St/Deluth/Denver as the one seed in the bracket so we should have decided home ice advantage.

How does the Big Ten tournament work? I think we host the semis and final as the 1 seed, right?
Click to expand...

It cannot be Denver has they are a host team like Penn State. It could be Cornell or BC as well. Way too many games to play yet to know for sure.
 
RGWhirly said:
It cannot be Denver has they are a host team like Penn State. It could be Cornell or BC as well. Way too many games to play yet to know for sure.
Click to expand...
Two recent guesses have PSU as a 2 seed facing Bemidji State with NDk or Minnesota State as the 1 seed (with WMU the 4 in one guess... that would be a tough regional!!!). As RGWhirly says, too early to say and a lot of hockey left to play! It is nice to know that PSU is in... double March Madness (hoops and hockey)!!!

https://www.uscho.com/2020/02/26/br...aa-hockey-up-until-upcoming-selection-sunday/
 
Saturday Night/Leap Day Action!!!

1st Period (B1G Early Games)
Michigan at Minnesota scoreless end of 1st. MSU at ND scoreless with about 2 minutes left in 1st.
 
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Saturday Night/Leap Day Action (Continued)!!!

2nd Period (B1G Early Games)
Michigan scores midway through the 2nd, taking a 1-0 lead over Minnesota. MSU at ND still scoreless early 2nd.
Minnesota ties it up 1-1 on a breakaway not too long after Michigan scores. MSU up 1-0 over ND about halfway through the 2nd.
Michigan and Minnesota tied at end of 2nd. MSU still up 1-0 with about 6 minutes left in 2nd.
MSU stays on top 1-0 end of 2nd over ND.
 
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NittanyLionFan said:
About 4 minutes left, Wisconsin up 3-2 over OSU. PP goal! They actually scored twice on that PP... not sure why the first was disallowed (was listening on radio, but had to turn off right about then... now on BTN!).

2:28 left... Wisconsin still up 3-2... OSU s/b pulling Napier soon...

0:45 left... still 3-2....

Whoo hoo!!! Badgers win 3-2!!! PSU guaranteed at least 2nd place now, pending outcome of the Minnesota series.
Click to expand...
They said the 1st PP goal was disallowed because a defender had his skate in the crease. As far as I know, that's legal as long as if doesn't interfere with the goalie. On the replay it sure didn't look like any sort of interference occurred.
 
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Saturday Night/Leap Day Action (Continued)!!!

3rd Period (B1G Early Games)
Michigan at Minnesota starts 3rd period knotted at 1 each.
Michigan takes a 2-1 over Minnesota lead early in the 3rd.
Midway through 3rd, still 2-1 Michigan. Minnesota starting to get some OZP.
6 minutes left in Michigan/Minnesota game... Michigan still leads 2-1... getting very intense/ physical! 4:44 left same score. 2:18 left same score. 1:58, Minnesota empty net! 1:34 left, someone lost their helmet (just fell off... not caused by another player!). One minute! 0:54 left, icing. 7 seconds left, face off outside the Michigan zone due to an offside.
Wow. Michigan wins 2-1. PSU outright B1G Champs!
Quite a turnaround for Michigan. They started 2020 either dead last in conference and have just secured home ice for the quarterfinals.
Michigan may host the loser of the MSU/ND series, which is looking like it will be ND. ND just swept Michigan last weekend in Ann Arbor. Crazy regular season!

MSU up 2-0 over ND about 5 minutes into the 3rd.
Still MSU up 2-0 over ND about 6 minutes left.
Hold the phone... ND ties it up 2-2 with 3 minutes left!
Going to OT...
Interesting... PxP guys for this game suggesting ND should pull their goalie in the OT given that OSU up and conference standings on the line. ND needs 3 points to host quarters or get a SOW and have OSU lose.
OT1 in the books. Going to the 3x3 OT2.
Bedlam as the announcer said! Both teams had 2-on-1s and couldn't score. ND just got called for too many men on the ice, so MSU going up 4x3 with 3:46 left.
Lol... penalty on MSU! Back to 3x3! 3:04 left.
ND got about 30 seconds of 4x3. That ended... 1:02 left. Lethemon coming up big for Sparty in OT.
OT2 ends. Going to a SO.
Rnd 1 - MSU (Kho) scores [reversed... went backwards... no goal], ND (Dello) scores. Irish SO victory.
 
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BOSCO2 said:
They said the 1st PP goal was disallowed because a defender had his skate in the crease. As far as I know, that's legal as long as if doesn't interfere with the goalie. On the replay it sure didn't look like any sort of interference occurred.
Click to expand...
I saw that replay and agree with you. I am by no means a hockey pro, but that seemed like a weak call! Luckily it didn't seem to impact the final outcome.
 
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