As tariffs choke overseas demand, China is pushing exporters to shift sales home — a move that risks deepening deflation in an economy already weighed down by weak consumption and excess capacity.
For the full year of 2025, Goldman Sachs expects China’s retail inflation to fall to 0%, from a 0.2% year-on-year growth in 2024, and wholesale prices to decline by 1.6% from a 2.2% drop last year.
Despite the mounting calls for more robust stimulus, many economists believe Beijing will likely wait to see concrete signs of economic deterioration before it exercises fiscal firepower.
