College Football Playoff Outlook

[bdgan]

These are the possibilities that I see:

AAC - Army or Navy could get in if undefeated. Do we root for ND to beat both?
ACC - I think they get 2 teams, Clemson & Miami. Not Pitt even if 11-1.
Big 12 - BYU or ISU
Big 10 - Oregon, PSU, PSU
CUSA - Liberty if they remain undefeated
Independent - ND probably gets in if they beat Army & Navy but lose to USC
SEC - Texas for sure but probably 3 more (GA, AL, TN, LSU, Missouri)
Mountain West - Boise State or UNLV

That's 14 teams but only 12 make the playoffs. ND, Army/Navy winner, and Liberty are the most likely to miss the cut.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

• I think you only get one team from the AAC, CUSA, and MW.
• ACC - Yes, probably those 2 though I really don't think Miami is that good. Given the quirk in scheduling, you could see a 11-1 Clemson, 12-0 Miami, and 11-1 Pitt with Clemson/Miami in the ACC CG. If Clemson were to win, you'd have 3 1-loss ACC teams though the weakest of the big conferences.
• B12 - I think BYU drops a few before the B12 CG and they are out. I think ISU gets to the CG with a loss vs K-State. I think K-State also drops another so I think you could see a 1-loss ISU vs a 2-loss K-State in CG and in that case, the loser is eliminated from consideration.
• B10 - I think they take 3, provided they have 2 or less losses (prior to the CG game). If Indy somehow finishes 10-2 (losses to OSU/Mich), I wonder how they would be considered. Heck, if ILL could split the Mich/OR games (decent chance vs Mich), they could go 10-2. Would they be considered?
• SEC - I think we all have to assume as a conference, they will always get the benefit of the doubt. Texas and GA are givens. I dont think Missouri is that strong and should have been beat by BC.
• ND - The Northern ILL loss should knock them down quite a bit along with their schedule but if A&M keeps winning, their win may cancel out that bad loss. I could see them losing to SC but not any of the others. I think they get in cause of the brand.

By my math, that's 1 (G5) + 2 (ACC) + 1 (B12) + 3 (B10) + 4 (SEC) + 1 (ND) = 12

 

[bdgan]

• I think you only get one team from the AAC, CUSA, and MW.

That's what I said or at least tried to say. Army plays Navy so neither can go undefeated. I think if one goes undefeated they get in. The question is if they get in at 11-1 with a loss to ND.

 

[lazydave841]

The question is if they get in at 11-1 with a loss to ND.

Only if that team is deemed the best non-P4 team.

 

[LandoComando]

• I think you only get one team from the AAC, CUSA, and MW.
• ACC - Yes, probably those 2 though I really don't think Miami is that good. Given the quirk in scheduling, you could see a 11-1 Clemson, 12-0 Miami, and 11-1 Pitt with Clemson/Miami in the ACC CG. If Clemson were to win, you'd have 3 1-loss ACC teams though the weakest of the big conferences.
• B12 - I think BYU drops a few before the B12 CG and they are out. I think ISU gets to the CG with a loss vs K-State. I think K-State also drops another so I think you could see a 1-loss ISU vs a 2-loss K-State in CG and in that case, the loser is eliminated from consideration.
• B10 - I think they take 3, provided they have 2 or less losses (prior to the CG game). If Indy somehow finishes 10-2 (losses to OSU/Mich), I wonder how they would be considered. Heck, if ILL could split the Mich/OR games (decent chance vs Mich), they could go 10-2. Would they be considered?
• SEC - I think we all have to assume as a conference, they will always get the benefit of the doubt. Texas and GA are givens. I dont think Missouri is that strong and should have been beat by BC.
• ND - The Northern ILL loss should knock them down quite a bit along with their schedule but if A&M keeps winning, their win may cancel out that bad loss. I could see them losing to SC but not any of the others. I think they get in cause of the brand.

By my math, that's 1 (G5) + 2 (ACC) + 1 (B12) + 3 (B10) + 4 (SEC) + 1 (ND) = 12

I think that 2nd bid for the ACC and ND is very much in doubt

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I think that 2nd bid for the ACC and ND is very much in doubt

Are you assuming Miami loses before the ACC CG? Otherwise, it would mean a 11-2 Clemson (assuming they lose in the ACC CG) or 12-1 Miami (assuming their lone loss is in the CG) isn't included.

If ND loses once more, I would agree with you but if they go 11-1, hard to see them excluded in my opinion. Not because they are deserving but because it's ND. The Northern ILL loss should be an automatic disqualifier but it could be canceled out by the A&M win, if they continue do well.

I also think this 1st year, the selection committee is going to be mindful (consciously or not) of not over-packing the 12 slots with B10 and SEC teams. Imagine the screaming if they select 4 B10 teams and 5 SEC teams? Not saying the spots wouldnt be deserved but the there could be pushback.

It will be interesting weeks ahead...

 

[Obliviax]

FYI, Strength of schedule for the remaining undefeated teams

Oregon- 35th
Penn State- 50th
BYU- 60th
Miami FL- 71st
Iowa State- 76th
Texas- 82nd
Pitt- 96th
Indiana- 112th

 

[LandoComando]

Are you assuming Miami loses before the ACC CG? Otherwise, it would mean a 11-2 Clemson (assuming they lose in the ACC CG) or 12-1 Miami (assuming their lone loss is in the CG) isn't included.

If ND loses once more, I would agree with you but if they go 11-1, hard to see them excluded in my opinion. Not because they are deserving but because it's ND. The Northern ILL loss should be an automatic disqualifier but it could be canceled out by the A&M win, if they continue do well.

I also think this 1st year, the selection committee is going to be mindful (consciously or not) of not over-packing the 12 slots with B10 and SEC teams. Imagine the screaming if they select 4 B10 teams and 5 SEC teams? Not saying the spots wouldnt be deserved but the there could be pushback.

It will be interesting weeks ahead...

Yeah I don't think an 11-2 Clemson is a lock...a 12-1 Miami is...they need someone other than Miami to win the ACC IMO to get 2

ND at 11-1 is probably a lock but I'm not counting on them to run the table. A&M continuing to win is important to their resume.

See, I think the opposite. I think the committee will be most worried about backlash from leaving out an SEC or Big Ten team for, let's say Clemson at 10-2, with their only quality win being Pitt.

Definitely interesting and this is why an expanded playoff is great. There's a ton of teams (even Army and Navy) with a shot.

 

[Jerry]

These are the possibilities that I see:

AAC - Army or Navy could get in if undefeated. Do we root for ND to beat both?
ACC - I think they get 2 teams, Clemson & Miami. Not Pitt even if 11-1.
Big 12 - BYU or ISU
Big 10 - Oregon, PSU, PSU
CUSA - Liberty if they remain undefeated
Independent - ND probably gets in if they beat Army & Navy but lose to USC
SEC - Texas for sure but probably 3 more (GA, AL, TN, LSU, Missouri)
Mountain West - Boise State or UNLV

That's 14 teams but only 12 make the playoffs. ND, Army/Navy winner, and Liberty are the most likely to miss the cut.

Well for a good chuckle, here's the ESPN FPI playoff odds as ranked after Saturday's games.

Some people are very impressed with ESPN's FPI. I've never been much into it myself.

Here's why:

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Notre Dame
7. Tennessee
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Miami
11. Clemson
12. Texas A&M
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Indiana
16. Louisville
17. Iowa State
18. SMU
19. Missouri
20. Oklahoma
21. Kansas State
22. Boise State
23. Iowa
24. Tulane
25. Arkansas

 

[LandoComando]

Well for a good chuckle, here's the ESPN FPI playoff odds as ranked after Saturday's games.

Some people are very impressed with ESPN's FPI. I've never been much into it myself.

Here's why:

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Ole Miss
6. Notre Dame
7. Tennessee
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Miami
11. Clemson
12. Texas A&M
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Indiana
16. Louisville
17. Iowa State
18. SMU
19. Missouri
20. Oklahoma
21. Kansas State
22. Boise State
23. Iowa
24. Tulane
25. Arkansas

That's not playoff odds

Use this link for playoff odds

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

USC is 0.5%--they're ranked 13th in difficulty (how difficult they are to play against)

 

[Jerry]

That's not playoff odds

Use this link for playoff odds

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

USC is 0.5%--they're ranked 13th in difficulty (how difficult they are to play against)

OK, thanks, I stand corrected. Googled playoff odds. Should have known. Your list looks a lot more sane.

See how easy that is to do, Lando. Adults have no problem admitting they made a mistake. Non-adults...different story.

 

[LandoComando]

OK, thanks, I stand corrected. Googled playoff odds. Should have known. Your list looks a lot more sane.

See how easy that is to do, Lando. Adults have no problem admitting they made a mistake. Non-adults...different story.

Lol I admit when I'm wrong...not when others believe something happened that didn't.

I bet on Ohio State and lost that Saturday
I also thought we easily cover
Wrong is wrong. Believing you're interpretation of something proves me wrong is illogical

 

[PurposePitch]

OK, thanks, I stand corrected. Googled playoff odds. Should have known. Your list looks a lot more sane.

See how easy that is to do, Lando. Adults have no problem admitting they made a mistake. Non-adults...different story.

An "adult" would have just said "OK, thanks, I stand corrected. Googled playoff odds. Should have known. Your list looks a lot more sane." and not included the childish personal attack that followed.

 

[diontechristmas]

Every prognostication I’ve seen, including ESPN, had PSU at 6 or 7 seed. One had us at 5. I assume all of these are expecting a PSU loss to OSU and running the table otherwise. I haven’t seen one mainstream site predicting PSU to not make the playoffs.

 

[LandoComando]

Every prognostication I’ve seen, including ESPN, had PSU at 6 or 7 seed. One had us at 5. I assume all of these are expecting a PSU loss to OSU and running the table otherwise. I haven’t seen one mainstream site predicting PSU to not make the playoffs.

Yeah, honestly, I don't see how any credible site could have us out. Barring a historical meltdown we'll be in
Palm still has at 8 which I'm struggling with....but in his scenario we at least get BYU at home which I like

 

[bcspsu]

Every prognostication I’ve seen, including ESPN, had PSU at 6 or 7 seed. One had us at 5. I assume all of these are expecting a PSU loss to OSU and running the table otherwise. I haven’t seen one mainstream site predicting PSU to not make the playoffs.

Last week, the bracket that I saw had PSU at #6 with a home game against Clemson.