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Consensus shifting?

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Ja1339

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Feb 5, 2016
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Posting this in the vacumn between the 2 matches this weekend, and the updated rankings tomorrow, mainly to get opinions from the very knowledgeable folks on this board.

Wow, what a difference ten days makes! Prior to the Iowa match, many of us, myself included, were obsessed with our deficiencies at 33 and 41 and to a lesser extent 74 and 97. Ten days later Jimmy is hitting his stride, Hall is manning 74, Cutch continues to look like a threat to AA, Suriano looks like a decent bet to make the finals, and Cenzo/Nevills look like they definitely belong in the top 4.

Are we now the favorite going into Nationals or is it still a toss-up/too close to call or is OSU the favorite? With the recent developments, what is your top priority for the remainder of regular season? Good health, seeding improvements, victories over tOSU and possibly OSU, or something else. Thanks.
 
I have thought since last year you would be the favorites, even not expecting much at 133, 141, 184,and 197 (although that was before Nickal went up). Too much high end with the big 3, Suriano, Joseph, and Nevills have increased points from what I thought, and 97 looks better to me. Guillibon has even wrestled well the last few matches, and looks like he could score some solid points.

Takes a lot of 5-8 AA to make up for one finalist. OSU or the Bucknuts would have to have a helluva tournament to make up the ground. Still thinking we sit a solid 2nd, with the bucknuts 3rd and Iowa/VaTech fighting it out for 4th.
 
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What also factors into that is some loses by our competition.

JoJo smith still bugs me. Kid is too talented to only score a single E against anyone on the scene.

Then there is Dance, Epperly, Waltz....whether we win the NC or not, it surely will be fun as fan.
 
Ja1339 said:
Posting this in the vacumn between the 2 matches this weekend, and the updated rankings tomorrow, mainly to get opinions from the very knowledgeable folks on this board.

Wow, what a difference ten days makes! Prior to the Iowa match, many of us, myself included, were obsessed with our deficiencies at 33 and 41 and to a lesser extent 74 and 97. Ten days later Jimmy is hitting his stride, Hall is manning 74, Cutch continues to look like a threat to AA, Suriano looks like a decent bet to make the finals, and Cenzo/Nevills look like they definitely belong in the top 4.

Are we now the favorite going into Nationals or is it still a toss-up/too close to call or is OSU the favorite? With the recent developments, what is your top priority for the remainder of regular season? Good health, seeding improvements, victories over tOSU and possibly OSU, or something else. Thanks.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I thought we were the favorites in the offseason, when we still had tons of 'questions.' Back then, yes, we had our 3 likely Finalists, at least 2 Champs, plus the bonus those three bring that really equals a 4th Finalist, but opposing fans could point to all of our question marks, for Hope. They're Tier 1.

Now that many of those question marks are bringing more & more clarity, we're starting to get a little closer to our talented lineup's Ceiling, and its Floor is rising as well. Suriano's proven he can win a Semifinal match, and Joseph & Nevills just joined him this weekend. For their floors, depending on how seeding shakes out, a Quarterfinal loss by Suriano would be a huge shock, and one by Joseph or Nevills could be quite surprising. And even if, gawd, either of them would be an absolute nightmare for whoever they might encounter in the consis. And if we're being as objectively honest as possible, despite how distracting the loss to Meyer was in CHA, Mark Hall has got to be given the exact same treatment. Sure, you could throw around the "well, he IS a true freshman" bromide, but it would be as shocking for him to lose a Qtr bout as it would be for Suriano. And is there anybody in the 174 field you could say Hall cannot beat? Call them Tier 2, all four of whom are extremely strong AA candidates, and two of whom would not surprise a single legit college wrestling fan if they made the Finals.

Round all that out with a Tier 3 that consists of surging Gulibon and steady McCutcheon. One in a tough weight and one in a weak one. Throw the Question Mark thing on either, and I wouldn't argue. Jimmy's inconsistency is famous at this point, and Mouse looks a little dinged up as he continues to pile up W's. So, sure, you could set their floor at off the podium, but their ceilings include Quarterfinal wins, at the very least, right?

Man. I mean, we rave about OkSt's breadth and lack of holes (Weigel & Schafer are insane surprises to me), but I don't have any problem picturing Penn State matching them AA for AA, and they can't hold a candle to PSU's top-end firepower. Or Bonus!

Yeah, I thought we were the favorite in August, and I don't mean this to be anticlimactic, because there's gonna be a shit-ton of tense, excellent wrestling across the board these next two months, but I think we're beginning to look like a runaway.

Dominant, I believe is the preferred term in the wrestling lexicon.
 
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hlstone said:
My top priority is knocking a few back at Whiskers before the Illinois dual.

If this team stays healthy, they win.
Click to expand...

Stonelayer, what up! I'm coming up for the Illinois dual too and am very much interested in subscribing to this newsletter ;) See you soon, homie!
 
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jtothemfp said:
Stonelayer, what up! I'm coming up for the Illinois dual too and am very much interested in subscribing to this newsletter ;) See you soon, homie!
Click to expand...

Sweet! Kenny will be joining me as well. He will be stoked that you will be there! my email is waydepost at gmail
 
RoarLions1 said:
May make it as well. Saw jto and NoVa in Philly...longer for hl...man, I gotta get to Whiskers. Hope to see y'all there.
Click to expand...

Roar I hope to see you and Nova! Weekends are tough for me(work and kid has field hockey all the time)
 
CowboyUp61 said:
I have thought since last year you would be the favorites, even not expecting much at 133, 141, 184,and 197 (although that was before Nickal went up). Too much high end with the big 3, Suriano, Joseph, and Nevills have increased points from what I thought, and 97 looks better to me. Guillibon has even wrestled well the last few matches, and looks like he could score some solid points.

Takes a lot of 5-8 AA to make up for one finalist. OSU or the Bucknuts would have to have a helluva tournament to make up the ground. Still thinking we sit a solid 2nd, with the bucknuts 3rd and Iowa/VaTech fighting it out for 4th.
Click to expand...

Wow I read this post and got Bi polar disorder. I believe we are now solid favorites and need to keep our eyes on the rear view mirror. The losses by OSU this weekend can really hurt their NCAA seeding and make the path much harder for Collica (Could slip to 4 and in Zain's Bracket with a tough Jordan in the quarters. JoJo is not wrestling up to expectations and is slipping to low AA status, and Crutch Just lost to an unranked kid so he may have a tough NCAA. Chandler Rogers also took a hit. On top of that Nevilles, Suriano, and Joseph all take losses in matches that did not hurt them and actually placed them all in the top tier in their respective weight classes. That laong with losses by Dance, Epperly and Walz did not hurt our guys.
 
Here are the current bonus point percentages between PSU and Oklahoma State. These are the sorted values for the ten starters, blue PSU, orange OSU.

93

93

87

68
65

65
57

57
55

47

45

43
38

37
33

31

23
21
20
10
 
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jtothemfp said:
Yeah, I thought we were the favorites in the offseason, when we still had tons of 'questions.' Back then, yes, we had our 3 likely Finalists, at least 2 Champs, plus the bonus those three bring that really equals a 4th Finalist, but opposing fans could point to all of our question marks, for Hope. They're Tier 1.

Now that many of those question marks are bringing more & more clarity, we're starting to get a little closer to our talented lineup's Ceiling, and its Floor is rising as well. Suriano's proven he can win a Semifinal match, and Joseph & Nevills just joined him this weekend. For their floors, depending on how seeding shakes out, a Quarterfinal loss by Suriano would be a huge shock, and one by Joseph or Nevills could be quite surprising. And even if, gawd, either of them would be an absolute nightmare for whoever they might encounter in the consis. And if we're being as objectively honest as possible, despite how distracting the loss to Meyer was in CHA, Mark Hall has got to be given the exact same treatment. Sure, you could throw around the "well, he IS a true freshman" bromide, but it would be as shocking for him to lose a Qtr bout as it would be for Suriano. And is there anybody in the 174 field you could say Hall cannot beat? Call them Tier 2, all four of whom are extremely strong AA candidates, and two of whom would not surprise a single legit college wrestling fan if they made the Finals.

Round all that out with a Tier 3 that consists of surging Gulibon and steady McCutcheon. One in a tough weight and one in a weak one. Throw the Question Mark thing on either, and I wouldn't argue. Jimmy's inconsistency is famous at this point, and Mouse looks a little dinged up as he continues to pile up W's. So, sure, you could set their floor at off the podium, but their ceilings include Quarterfinal wins, at the very least, right?

Man. I mean, we rave about OkSt's breadth and lack of holes (Weigel & Schafer are insane surprises to me), but I don't have any problem picturing Penn State matching them AA for AA, and they can't hold a candle to PSU's top-end firepower. Or Bonus!

Yeah, I thought we were the favorite in August, and I don't mean this to be anticlimactic, because there's gonna be a shit-ton of tense, excellent wrestling across the board these next two months, but I think we're beginning to look like a runaway.

Dominant, I believe is the preferred term in the wrestling lexicon.
Click to expand...
Agree with almost everything you wrote, but it would definitely not shock me if Hall loses in quarters.
 
If Hall is seeded 6-9 or so, it wouldn't be a shocker if he lost in the quarters at NCAAs

But the kid is mature and going to be focused on the team race. As a HS kid and currently, he knows the importance of team.

I can see him duplicating an Ed Ruth of 2011 - lose in the quarters and then make a huge charge for the benefit of the team, finishing 5th-3rd.
 
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Lyco1990 said:
Wow I read this post and got Bi polar disorder. I believe we are now solid favorites and need to keep our eyes on the rear view mirror. The losses by OSU this weekend can really hurt their NCAA seeding and make the path much harder for Collica (Could slip to 4 and in Zain's Bracket with a tough Jordan in the quarters. JoJo is not wrestling up to expectations and is slipping to low AA status, and Crutch Just lost to an unranked kid so he may have a tough NCAA. Chandler Rogers also took a hit. On top of that Nevilles, Suriano, and Joseph all take losses in matches that did not hurt them and actually placed them all in the top tier in their respective weight classes. That laong with losses by Dance, Epperly and Walz did not hurt our guys.
Click to expand...
I agree with all but maybe Rogers. May actually have helped him, would rather be a 5 seed than a 4.

But anyone who thought OSU was the favorite, without a huge tournament, doesn't understand team scoring at the tournament. We would have to be perfect, and your other 7 would have to have a bad tournament. Still could happen, but I like the odds less now than even 2 months ago.

Joseph and Crutchmer especially have to turn lose. Both are better than they have shown. Hopefully, they are just burning through now to peak in March! Schafer has been a very pleasant surprise. Brock can still make a foolish mistake occasionally, but has been good enough to recover from them for the most part.
 
Not sure where the Joesph underperforming myth is coming from. He lost his first varsity match when he gave up 12 points in the first 30 seconds of the match, and he lost to last year's runner-up in OT in a match he should have won.
 
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Since I have been consistent in expressing who I believed the favorite to be - my consensus has been unwavering.
 
nitlion6 said:
Not sure where the Joesph underperforming myth is coming from. He lost his first varsity match when he gave up 12 points in the first 30 seconds of the match, and he lost to last year's runner-up in OT in a match he should have won.
Click to expand...
Cowboy was discussing Joseph Smith not our Cenzo J.
 
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Posted last week.

PSU is beginning to separate itself from the field. The O$U match should be tough as will the Okie St match for the dual championships.

But with B1Gs just around the corner, PSU will have 9 guys seeded in top 4. Ohio State is next with 7, max. Iowa with 6.

For Nationals, PSU probably will have 7 guys seeded in top 4 with 4/5 at 1or 2. Next best is Iowa and O$U with 4 top 4's. Okie St. has 3. Just too much top end talent for PSU.

Next year will be even better as both Iowa and Okie State lose 4 seniors while State loses 1 and O$U 0.
 
Ian said:
Posted last week.

PSU is beginning to separate itself from the field. The O$U match should be tough as will the Okie St match for the dual championships.

But with B1Gs just around the corner, PSU will have 9 guys seeded in top 4. Ohio State is next with 7, max. Iowa with 6.

For Nationals, PSU probably will have 7 guys seeded in top 4 with 4/5 at 1or 2. Next best is Iowa and O$U with 4 top 4's. Okie St. has 3. Just too much top end talent for PSU.

Next year will be even better as both Iowa and Okie State lose 4 seniors while State loses 1 and O$U 0.
Click to expand...

For Nationals, PSU probably will have
7 guys seeded in top 4
with 4/5 at 1or 2.​

Q Ian: Which PSU guys do you see "probably" seeded at 1or 2 at Nationals, besides ZPain, Nolf and Nickal?

Not a challenge - just interested in your expanded thoughts. Thanks in advance.
 
I am assuming he is thinking Suriano at 2 unless he knocks off Gilman at B1G's. The other one would be tough. Nevills at 2 if he knocks off Medbery and Walz beats Kasper is possible
 
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Not Ian, but here goes:

Suriano is a near-lock. If he wins out, he's the 1. If he only loses to Gilman at B10s, he's the 2 unless Dance beats Gilman in the Orange Bowl.

Nevills has an outside shot. He would have to reach the B10 finals including a semis win over Medbery. And he would need ACC help -- Kasper or Walz may or may not get seeded ahead of him anyway. (Some total mayhem, say Ryan Solomon winning ACCs, would help.)

Cenzo has a remote chance but can't be officially ruled out yet. He would have to win out the rest of the way -- including Martinez on 2/10, Rogers at NWCA Duals, and winning B10s with Martinez, Massa, and Jordan in the field. Pretty daunting if theoretically possible.
 
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El-Jefe said:
Not Ian, but here goes:

Suriano is a near-lock. If he wins out, he's the 1. If he only loses to Gilman at B10s, he's the 2 unless Dance beats Gilman in the Orange Bowl.

Nevills has an outside shot. He would have to reach the B10 finals including a semis win over Medbery. And he would need ACC help -- Kasper or Walz may or may not get seeded ahead of him anyway. (Some total mayhem, say Ryan Solomon winning ACCs, would help.)

Cenzo has a remote chance but can't be officially ruled out yet. He would have to win out the rest of the way -- including Martinez on 2/10, Rogers at NWCA Duals, and winning B10s with Martinez, Massa, and Jordan in the field. Pretty daunting if theoretically possible.
Click to expand...

This wrestling season is a little different this year with unanimous #1 ranked wrestlers in many weight classes:

125, 133, 149, 157, 165, 184, 197 & 285 undoubtedly has the heavy favorite being undefeated and expected 1-seed at NCAAs.

That said, a 3-seed is just as valuable as a 2-seed.

And a 6-seed is almost more desirable than the dreaded 4 or 5 seed this year.

Cenzo getting reversed late against Issac really hurt him, seed wise for B1Gs, as he's kind of stuck as a 4 seed (unless if he shocks the world Feb 10th).

Depending on what Cenzo does vs Rogers and at B1Gs, hopefully he earns a 3 or 6 seed at NCAAs. That would give him a manageable path to face IMar Saturday evening.

My point:
Even if Suriano is only PSU's only 2 seed, if Nevills can get a 3 seed and Cenzo can get a 3 or 6 seed at NCAAs, damn - I really like our opportunities for a bunch of finalists.

It'll be fun to watch it play out.


EDIT: Hall's NCAA seed ? I'm curious to see Hall wrestle BoJo and what BoJo's health status is. 174 still seems really unsettled still with BoJo's health, Hall added to the mix, Epperly's recent loss and arguably the toughest kid stuck at #2 (Zahid).

2nd EDIT: Likelihood is probably less than 5%, and would take some mild semifinal upsets but if all the stars/seeding aligned PSU could end up with 5; 6 or even 7 NCAA Finalists. It's not a crazy notion.
 
Last edited:
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Suriano, Retherford, Nolf, and Nickal for a 1 or 2 seed. Maybe Hall and Nevills with Joseph an outside shot for a 2 seed.

No one can compete with that high end level of talent. That's seven guys with Gulibon and MM in support.

Okie State squad is mostly ranked 6-10.
 
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T J said:
For Nationals, PSU probably will have
7 guys seeded in top 4
with 4/5 at 1or 2.​

Q Ian: Which PSU guys do you see "probably" seeded at 1or 2 at Nationals, besides ZPain, Nolf and Nickal?

Not a challenge - just interested in your expanded thoughts. Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing Suriano (already #2 Intermat) and Nevills (would have to beat Medbery at B1Gs). I could see PSU with 5 in top 3 - and there is little difference between a 2 or 3 seed as they match up in the same Semi.
 
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diggerpup said:
This wrestling season is a little different this year with unanimous #1 ranked wrestlers in many weight classes:

125, 133, 149, 157, 165, 184, 197 & 285 undoubtedly has the heavy favorite being undefeated and expected 1-seed at NCAAs.

That said, a 3-seed is just as valuable as a 2-seed.

And a 6-seed is almost more desirable than the dreaded 4 or 5 seed this year.

Cenzo getting reversed late against Issac really hurt him, seed wise for B1Gs, as he's kind of stuck as a 4 seed (unless if he shocks the world Feb 10th).

Depending on what Cenzo does vs Rogers and at B1Gs, hopefully he earns a 3 or 6 seed at NCAAs. That would give him a manageable path to face IMar Saturday evening.

My point:
Even if Suriano is only PSU's only 2 seed, if Nevills can get a 3 seed and Cenzo can get a 3 or 6 seed at NCAAs, damn - I really like our opportunities for a bunch of finalists.

It'll be fun to watch it play out.


EDIT: Hall's NCAA seed ? I'm curious to see Hall wrestle BoJo and what BoJo's health status is. 174 still seems really unsettled still with BoJo's health, Hall added to the mix, Epperly's recent loss and arguably the toughest kid stuck at #2 (Zahid).

2nd EDIT: Likelihood is probably less than 5%, and would take some mild semifinal upsets but if all the stars/seeding aligned PSU could end up with 5; 6 or even 7 NCAA Finalists. It's not a crazy notion.
Click to expand...
Lots of hay made in wrestle-backs.
 
PSU B1G/ NCAA Seeds?

125: 2/2
133: NA
141: 3/12
149: 1/1
157: 1/1
165: 4/4
174: 4/6?? Could win B1Gs
184: 1/2
197: 4/10
285: 3/3

Hard to beat that if they just wrestle their seed!
 
I don't think Cenzo will be a top 4 seed at nationals if he finishes 4th at B10s -- a one-loss Lewis (who avenged the loss) will likely pass him. And that assumes Cenzo beats Rogers on the road, which I think he will, but stranger things have happened.
 
RoarLions1 said:
Lots of hay made in wrestle-backs.
Click to expand...

Obviously, yeah. And PSU will need strong wresltbacks to win NCAAs.


I'm just being selfish and looking at possible finalists because I think it's fun to have a bunch of PSU kids wrestle Saturday night, live on ESPN, the whole nation watching.

It's been pretty darn cool in years where we have had finalists in half the weight classes.

Much easier to get causal PSU fans to watch the finals on ESPN when there are 5 finalists.
 
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