Covid and Wrestling 2020/2021

[Unbiased_football_fan]

Hi it is UFF! I have WrestleSim ready to go if we have a wrestling season. I thought about providing some copies to some of you that may have interest in testing it out. I also thought of setting the random seed (say to 2020) and running the virtual simulation for last year with the results from every round to establish THE 2020 virtual champion. The end of the last season was so utterly and completely sad, I hope and pray we can avoid it this year. I just haven't had time because I have been working on a number of things including Covid-19.

I have done some work on Covid-19 that is interesting, I wrote a paper (about 15 pages). I don't see how to attach a pdf here. It would be of particular interest to those of you that have businesses. I have some recommendations for engineering solutions. Summary points:

• Lockdowns had limited effect (second order)
• Airborne transmission is the primary exposure pathway
• Covid-19 positive case rates have tracked heating and cooling cycles in most states and many foreign countries: HVAC (probably commercial) transmission could be a dominant "super spreader" in poorly designed/operated systems
• The activity-controlled and triggered view of the virus I think is not complete and possibly not correct - the virus is controlling us not the other way around
• Based on the data in the paper, some states may be close to reaching the herd immunity threshold (HIT) (NJ, NY, CT, MA), the question will be how long that lasts. Many that are struggling now are a long ways off, likely to be ugly for the remainder of summer. Fall heating cycle could be nasty for some states.

Lots of details in the paper. Please contact me through rivals with your email address or you can email me: deshconsulting @ that email provided by Google. You can share my paper with those you think it could help and comments are welcome. Yes this does somewhat "out" myself, but I am not the type to feel the need to challenge someone to meet at a bridge to fight so this doesn't seem to be an issue.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

Some of you asked for an updated chart, here is a dropbox link to the paper and the most recent states chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ku52qcx90lb2qts/CovidVsMan.pdf?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/eff7j1dvvvh43d3/States0714.pdf?dl=0

 

[Callthestall]

What is your thought on the antibodies and how long they will stay effective in a person.
I read an article today that suggested that the antibodies would only be active for a person for approximately 90 days.?
What is your thought on finding vaccine?They tried to develop vaccine for SARS Covid 2 but results were not good. The vaccine stopped the virus but had major consequences on immune system in the lab animals they used.

 

[dmm53]

Japan might not want to risk an Olympic outbreak.

Japan, a country of about 127 million people, has had about 20,000 cases of COVID-19 and 980 deaths. The United States, which has about 328 million, has nearly 3.3 million cases as of Tuesday and nearly 135,000 deaths.

 

[baccafarmer]

What is your thought on the antibodies and how long they will stay effective in a person.
I read an article today that suggested that the antibodies would only be active for a person for approximately 90 days.?
What is your thought on finding vaccine?They tried to develop vaccine for SARS Covid 2 but results were not good. The vaccine stopped the virus but had major consequences on immune system in the lab animals they used.

Worked with vaccines in PA for both the ARMY and a large multinational. Getting to market with a new vaccine is exceedingly difficult and risky. Almost everyone in the US got out of the business in the 80’s due to liability issues. Abundant caution is required when testing unproven vaccines. The design of a phase 3 clinical trial is very complex as the manufacturer must account for age, race and a host of other factors. With new technologies (almost all of which have never obtained a single FDA approval) the challenges are multiplied.
Almost everything you read or see in the media is dumbed down and/or engineered to convey a optimistic or pessimistic “opinion”. Fact is that no one knows if a new Vaccine will be efficacious, long lasting, or dangerous as hell. I’ve worked with some gene jockeys and most of them have gigantic egos. When you put them together with their private equity masters (interested in skyrocketing stock prices) and government backers (interested in quelling public anxiety), you have a joy machine that plays the base instincts of the media. I’d be highly skeptical of anything you see on the internet.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

What is your thought on the antibodies and how long they will stay effective in a person.
I read an article today that suggested that the antibodies would only be active for a person for approximately 90 days.?
What is your thought on finding vaccine?They tried to develop vaccine for SARS Covid 2 but results were not good. The vaccine stopped the virus but had major consequences on immune system in the lab animals they used.

I agree 100% with baccafarmer. The Moderna news is being hyped this morning, but if you read the report I don't think it is nearly as encouraging as portrayed. Vaccine development is exceedingly difficult business.

They tested 45 individuals, 45 healthy (and not old) people. All had antibody responses (this is good). Though they stated they didn't have to remove anyone they actually dropped one person out because of hives after the first injection. They gave a second injection about 30 days in. Almost all people had reactions (chills, fever, fatigue) and one had a fever of over 103F. The most important part is antibody/protection responses dropped about 20-25% over the next 30 days (this is not good).

Let's just say the incident fatality rate (IFR) is 0.005 (0.5%) for covid overall. That means the IFR for the age of people tested in the vaccine trial would be about 0.00015 (0.015%). If you gave 45 healthy (and not old) people covid, they would likely have less or similar health effects that the vaccine test subjects did from the vaccine. What you want to see is how the vaccines work for old people because they are the most vulnerable and their immune systems work differently.

I am not an anti-vaccine person by any sense, but rushed science on a complex problem is asking for big trouble. Based on the risks as currently understood I wouldn't think of having my kids get a covid vaccine (covid risk is low, vaccine risk is ? = easy risk decision).

 

[El-Jefe]

Merck's CEO on Monday: “If you’re going to use a vaccine on billions of people, you better know what that vaccine does.”

He's right.

That said, the usual development/approval cycle is unacceptable. Delays and technical errors both cost lives. Once the vaccine risk < disease risk, then it's time.

 

[82bordeaux]

The Moderna CEO is a great self-promoter. It remains to be seen how good he is at bringing a product to market. So far he is zero for 10 years.

 

[Dogwelder]

The Moderna CEO is a great self-promoter. It remains to be seen how good he is at bringing a product to market. So far he is zero for 10 years.

Tom Brands is Moderna CEO?

 

[82bordeaux]

Tom Brands is Moderna CEO?

I wish I had the option to like this 100 times.