It's the toughest qualifying tourney in the country. 14 schools wrestling in a tournament where an average of 9 wrestlers per weight class will wrestle less than two weeks later at the NCAA Championship. That's 64%! But that's not why I'm posting.
Eight wrestlers at each weight class earn placement points at B1G's, same as at NCAA's. The points are the same too, from 1st though 8th respectively; 16, 12, 10, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3.
Let's think about this for a second. 8 of 14 wrestlers earn placement points at B1G's, while it's 8 of 33 at the national tourney. I call that decompression. Once wrestlers from the other six qualifying tourneys are inserted, generally wrestlers move down the seeding ladder. The two exceptions are; (1) a #1 seed that's also ranked #1 won't move, and maybe a #2 and/or #3 (such as at 141) will stay high too if a conference is loaded at the top, and (2) a wrestler that has a tremendous qualifying tourney could actually IMPROVE their seed at NCAA's.
Why is this important? It's important because this "decompression" causes an entirely different dynamic at the NCAA's. Middle-placers, and low-placers at B1G's are less likely to score placement points at NCAA's. That is HUGE. Granted, there are exceptions each year, but on-average, it's true. Even high-end finishers, say 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place could be knocked down a peg or several, and will, on-average, score fewer placement points..
Let's take a look at two years, 2017 and 2018. Ohio State won Big Ten's those years by 9.5 and 16.5 points respectively. Yet Penn State won NCAA's by 36.5 and 8 points in those same years, with tOSU finishing second.
One fact that neutralizes decompression is having #1 ranked guys. #1 seeds fare pretty well at NCAA's, winning in the neighborhood of 60% of the titles. They do not decompress to a lower seed. Point is, having a lot of highest-end guys makes it more difficult for other teams to catch or overtake them. In years 2016 through 2019, when Penn State had 5 finalists each of those years, it was tough for other teams to overcome. In those years, only when Ohio State had arguably their best team ever in 2018 was it close as they were able to match us with 8 All-Americans, 6 of those being top-4.
Eight wrestlers at each weight class earn placement points at B1G's, same as at NCAA's. The points are the same too, from 1st though 8th respectively; 16, 12, 10, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3.
Let's think about this for a second. 8 of 14 wrestlers earn placement points at B1G's, while it's 8 of 33 at the national tourney. I call that decompression. Once wrestlers from the other six qualifying tourneys are inserted, generally wrestlers move down the seeding ladder. The two exceptions are; (1) a #1 seed that's also ranked #1 won't move, and maybe a #2 and/or #3 (such as at 141) will stay high too if a conference is loaded at the top, and (2) a wrestler that has a tremendous qualifying tourney could actually IMPROVE their seed at NCAA's.
Why is this important? It's important because this "decompression" causes an entirely different dynamic at the NCAA's. Middle-placers, and low-placers at B1G's are less likely to score placement points at NCAA's. That is HUGE. Granted, there are exceptions each year, but on-average, it's true. Even high-end finishers, say 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place could be knocked down a peg or several, and will, on-average, score fewer placement points..
Let's take a look at two years, 2017 and 2018. Ohio State won Big Ten's those years by 9.5 and 16.5 points respectively. Yet Penn State won NCAA's by 36.5 and 8 points in those same years, with tOSU finishing second.
One fact that neutralizes decompression is having #1 ranked guys. #1 seeds fare pretty well at NCAA's, winning in the neighborhood of 60% of the titles. They do not decompress to a lower seed. Point is, having a lot of highest-end guys makes it more difficult for other teams to catch or overtake them. In years 2016 through 2019, when Penn State had 5 finalists each of those years, it was tough for other teams to overcome. In those years, only when Ohio State had arguably their best team ever in 2018 was it close as they were able to match us with 8 All-Americans, 6 of those being top-4.
