I honestly have a lot of confidence in PSU tomorrow but have no idea how the line is -12. If you assume home field is worth 3 as we are always told - Michigan was favored by 7 at MSU 2 weeks ago. We were favored by 13.5 vs MSU 3 weeks ago which means Michigan would have been favored by 13 vs MSU if the game were in Ann Arbor - almost the same as the PSU/MSU spread. Granted we lost and Michigan's D dominated them the following week (vs a banged up QB) and we haven't looked great since, but has enough happened to swing the spread 9 points in Michigan's favor (giving Mich 3 for being home)? Vegas is usually on top of things so either it is a taller task tomorrow than I thought or Trace is more banged up than I thought. Just don't get it.
Don't understand Mich -12
- Thread starter Snappy
- Start date
No worries snappy, Vegas is just preparing you for the butt whipping your team is about to receive from the Wolverines.
It's actually modern math. No real thinking involved.
Thanks for the insight. Makes a ton of sense. I'm sure you said the same thing before last year's game.
I think posters on this site talk each other into believing Michigan isn’t very good. They are a very solid team with few weaknesses. I believe we always have a shot at winning and will root like heck, but will not be surprised if we lose by 12.
You funny! Michigan trolls are like the 15 year secados - they come out every 15 year when they are relevant for a nanosecond and then crawl back into the dirt where they belong.
Personally I see this as a single digit win either way. Impressed with psu d line. And really wish hamler had picked michigan.
He has been practicing all week but with a brace on the knee. So he will be playing but no idea how close to 100% he is.
Each game and week is it's own event, but a little more goes into the odds than that, but appreciate your effort in trying to help me. And by your theory, PSU could be favored by 12 this week.Well:
PSU beat Pitt by 45
Pitt hung within 5 of ND
ND beat UMich by 7.....
So - obviously- PSU will beat UMich by 47.
Or, maybe, every week - and every matchup - is its own unique event?
Anything else you have trouble "getting"?
You're close... it's a CICADA and the cycle is 17 years
Has nothing to do with the teams.....the line moves according to how much and how the money is being bet!
I'm waiting for someone to pay me what I'm worth to do math.
I was also, but I think that was because a loss to Iowa could have had an avalanche effect with regard to national perception and even negative recruiting ramifications. This week a road loss to a team like Michigan is expected, and a win would be gravy.
I don't think their Receivers/Tight Ends are anything our secondary can't handle. I don't think their QB is much better than Lewerke. I don't think their Running Backs are special. I think our DLine is good. I think our OLine is good. I think Miles Sanders is serviceable, and certainly capable of a special play or two with the right scheming. I think our special teams are equal or better. This game all comes down to McSorley playing more like 2017, our Receivers fixing their drop problems, and our Linebackers doing enough to not put the other groups in a bad spot. I don't think either team, barring some colossal screw ups (or shifty officiating), should be down my more than 9 points by the end of the game, and it's kind of a pick em, just because it's a road game for us.
Are secados spanish cicadas?
We will crush michigan and after the game we will hear the lamentations of their women.
You guys are forgetting the importance of a Michigan win to Delany and the conference, and the fact that it is in An Arbor. If everything were truly neutral I'd say it's a pickem. As it is, two scores is the cushion I expect to see by crunch time. If that doesn't happen, it's due to the unpredictable -- turnovers. To me the line makes sense.
“Who” is making the bet is more important today than how much.
And really, it has everything to do with the teams (if Trace was ruled out and they could get to it quickly enough, the line would climb without a cent being wagered).
Unbelievable, someone on these forums who actually understands how line movement works.
Some big casino player could bet 20k on a game and the number isn’t going to move, but if a known wiseguy bets 5k on the same game the spread is going to be adjusted immediately.
Well done sir.
They're good, not great and they certainly do have weaknesses.
(This was probably already explained, but I didn't read past the first three responses to your post)
Vegas only "calculates" the initial line. The bettors, for all intents and purposes, control the line after that. The line went away from us, so the people betting favor us even less than does "Vegas."
Yes, that is true, but the decision would be 100% based on how "vegas" expects the injury news to affect the betting. It's still the betting driving the line -- Not some casino's projection of what the score delta will actually be.
They are trying to put up a line that won’t be susceptible to sharp money on either side. So, they kinda are using their power ratings and information to set the sharpest line possible. They could have 400 guys coming in and betting $50 a pop and they won’t sweat it. But Billy Walters’ group gets down 20k at a soft number and they’ll be concerned.
