Curious, with the "James Franklin is 0-6 on the road vs. ranked teams" message being thrown around here lately: How many of those games was Penn State favored to win? And, how many of those games were we ourselves also ranked?
feeling good abt Iowa
- Thread starter tboyer
- Start date
So we should only beat teams that we are favored to win? Then I guess most yrs we shouldn't expect to ever beat OSU. Elite programs should be able to win gms like those sometimes
Keys for winning the game:
1) Win the turnover battle.
2) No stupid penalties
2) An unbiased and competent officiating crew.
1) Win the turnover battle.
2) No stupid penalties
2) An unbiased and competent officiating crew.
For sure that is their defensive gameplan. Maybe PSU surprises everybody and manages to run the ball a little. Iowa State ran for close to 5 yards per carry on this D. If PSU can get some inside yards, then the run fakes can bring the safeties down and the middle of the field opens up a little. It just comes down to the matchups at the LOS -- always does.
That's been my take. I believe that we'll be able to move the ball consistently, and we just need to convert the opportunities into points. One big difference between a road trip to Iowa and one to Maryland is that even when Iowa is down, they believe they can come back. The Maryland fans gave up by the end of the first quarter.. We were up in the last trip to Kinnick for most of the game, but we let them hang around and gave them a chance where they took the lead. We need to score early and often. I think 24 points would be enough to seal a victory for the good guys.
Agreed, but the hypothesis was that PSU can't defend the screen pass. Recent data says otherwise. Our defense tackles well in space. I'm really not worried about Iowa's offense unless they magically start hitting downfield YOLO balls.
Penn State will need to control the clock and maximize their time of possession on offense. This Penn State offense can be explosive so if you can dictate pace early on by establishing a bruising running game the passing game will be there for some deep completions. Easy game, NO WAY. But a game that you should win.
We were also ranked for:
2018 @Michigan
2017 @OSU and @MSU (probably favored at MSU)
And that's it. So really there's one game there (the weird weather delay game) that we probably should have won (on paper) and didn't. And we should have won 2017 @ OSU as well.
LOL. They don't need to control the clock. That is key when the other team has an explosive offense (Iowa does not). Score early, score quickly, score often.
Yep, until we win and then it's we've had 6 warmups, we will see how good we are next week. It's just rinse and repeat with posters like you. Tomorrow marks the midpoint of the season. Seems to me you're missing out on some real fun football waiting for the version of the team that checks all your boxes to show up. Too bad, it's been a fun year so far.
In my opinion, this game will be won or lost based on the performance of the PSU oline. If we can run the ball and have good pass pro it’s game over for Iowa. This is the area when Iowa can flip this game in their favor.
I understand your (stupid) "rah rah" take but some context is needed.
For example, was PSU with Hack at QB and a 50-man roster really expected to beat #1 Ohio State in the Shoe in 2015? Or also in '15, were the 6-5 Nits expected to go into MSU and beat #6 Sparty? C'mon, be realistic here. I'd bet half of those games on the road we were unranked and without a full roster. I would hardly call the '14 and '15 teams on the cusp of "elite."
I appreciate the name calling...it's a message board...relax turbo. When did I ever give dates back to 2014 or 15? With the roster we've had since 2016, with some legendary players, I don't think at this point of the program we should be getting blown out at Michigan, which happens every other year, nor should we be getting outclassed by MSU, a team that recruits at a much lower level. Just my opinion. I mean seriously, if we only expect PSU to win games on the road they are favored, unfortunately, we won't be elite anytime soon b/c most years OSU and/or Michigan will be favored at home.
Um ok...u are right, it has been a fun team and season so far...but is it untrue that this is the first real test? This team is incredibly young and would it be so far fetched that an upset prone program in Iowa wins? I mean seriously, you act like PSU is a proven commodity at this point...we just don't know that. Can we put the game on the ground and close it out? It's been tough sledding in recent yrs...can we improve a horrible 3rd down percentage since 2016? all of these are program turning stats that need to happen...i think and believe we have the personnel and staff do it, we just need to find a way. But, for you to not acknowledge that we have had five warmups is myopic...sorry, Pitt was a great team...I mean come on.
Stick with the PSU will win by 30 ... it is pretty ignorant actually, but by all means run with it! Maybe you are too young to remember 2008 (or too old and you have already forgot about the game), but you should remember 2017. You had a once in a generation RB and had to score on the last play of the game to win ...
PSU won at Kinnick in 2012, congratulations, that was a 4 win team (KF's worst after his first 2 transition years as Iowa's coach).
PSU could win the game for sure, maybe even win by 2 scores if things fall right, but 30 points???? Wow, the arrogance in some of you guys is off the charts.
Considering we’ve only had 7 this year total and we only had like 20 all year last year, it’s a pretty reasonable conclusion.
I don’t see it happening with us...if we had a turnover chain, it would likely get rusty. We’re not a stellar turnover team.
PSU might only get to 35...so if you're all pissy because of the 30pt margin it could only be 23...either way the Hawks won't score more than 1 TD
While I agree that PSU winning by 30 isn't the most likely outcome (I'd put it at a 3% chance), would you agree that it is more likely that PSU win by 30 than Iowa win by 30?
There are posters on the Iowa boards predicting an Iowa blowout. LOL.
I think Stanley's pretty good if he's protected. I've been seeing some stuff about Tyler Goodson as being the most Wadley-like back they have. I imagine he'll get some looks tomorrow. I still think we win, but while I've predicted we'd win 31-0 on the Iowa board (that's the 1993 score) 42-12 seems a little high. I don't think Iowa will score more than 14, but I'm not sure we score a whole lot more - maybe 17-20. If we beat Iowa by 30 in Kinnick at night I'm somehow getting tickets to the CFB National Championship game.
Ok, I'm myopic. I don't really care. People like you just move the goalposts. That's what you do. And I'd bet you a nickel that if/when we beat Iowa, you're on here badmouthing them and talking about how unproven we are. It gets really old. Maryland is not a strong football team. But we beat them 59-0. And even with our 3rd and 4th string players in on defense, they couldn't move the ball a lick. That counts for something. IMHO, much more than what we did or didn't do in 2016 and 2017.
Not at all..I think a road win at Iowa for this very young team is quite a litmus test...how can anyone bad mouth a win at Iowa? Way to generalize "people like you." So many people on here get so defensive when anything critical is said...relax, it's a board. But, funny, you bring up 2016 and 2017, which were two teams who obviously were championship quality (at least conference wise). We don't know that yet about this squad..not even close...so wouldn't it make more sense for me to be questioning how good we are now rather than if I was doing it with the virtual all star team we had those two years on offense? we have very few proven commodities at this point through five games...just my opinion.
The odds of Iowa winning by 30 are remote - that's not who they generally are and this Penn State team isn't coming off a taxing performance like Ohio State in 2017. The Iowa fans at work are expecting something like 38-3 Penn State. I think it will be a little closer than that. We'll see how much the offense has improved since Pitt.
I was at the Maryland game and it was not really that loud except when Penn State fans cheered.
True, they have no Wadley. People bringing up our last trip to Kinnick forget that this Iowa teams doesn’t have Wadley or the two TE’s.
I sure hope to hell the words "loss of containment" aren't mentioned and associated with this defense on Saturday night. I hope the ends and OLBs stay at home and play their assignments and don't got for the "knockout/splash" plays and end up out of position and leaving running lanes open. Grrr. I wish this damn game would get here already!!!
Maryland was the first "real test". Until it wasn't. Multiple media outlets had that game circled as an upset special. Night game. Cancelled Classes. Black out and then Penn State punched them in the mouth. and it was no longer a test.
If PSU wins big tomorrow, it'll be the same narrative. Iowa wasn't very good, they looked bad against Michigan, Penn State is still untested.
A test doesn't become not a test because you ace it.
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No Because this is a different team. They shouldn't be saddled with the failures of past teams. Plus, this team looks to have a championship calibre defense. That changes everything. Before, we were counting on our offense to be able to outscore people. That's not the case this year.
I don't know what's going to happen in Iowa on Saturday night. But, I'm pretty sure that whatever happens it won't be because we lost to OSU and MSU on the road in 2017.
Iowa had a strong run vs PSU for one reason:
Norm Parker vs Jay Paterno
PSU and Iowa faced off 10 times while Parker led the Iowa defense, and JVP Jr led the PSU offense.
2011: (PSU wins 13-3 vs a horrid Iowa team)
2010: Iowa 24-3
2009: Iowa 21-10
2008: Iowa 24-23
2007: (PSU wins 27-7 vs a horrid Iowa team)
2004: Iowa 6-4
2003: Iowa 26-14
2002: Iowa 42-35 in OT
2001: Iowa 24-18
2000: Iowa 26-23
Iowa won 8 of the 10...… by an average score of 23-16 (and PSU's offense even stunk in the two PSU wins).
In those 8 games, the PSU offense was clicking for exactly one quarter (the 4th quarter comeback in 2002)
Parker powned the JVP Jr PSU offense and beat on it like a red-headed rented stepchild of a mule.
When anyone other than Norm Parker was running the Iowa D, or JVP Jr was running the PSU O..... PSU won 8 out of 9 (since joining B10)
By an average score of 35 to 16.
PSU scored 10 points in the 1st quarter of the 2009 game. A TD on the 1st play from scrimmage and then an incredibly long drive (20 or so plays) that ended in a FG. They were clicking early that game.
That i'll give u....past experiences don't predict the future...but they do lay the groundwork for perceptions at least....I mean, what is probably an accurate perspective on our program right now? I would say, tremendous talent, a young, upbeat staff that is on the cusp...but needs to get over the hurdle winning big games on the road. To me, that is the perspective until it isn't anymore. Now, upsets happen all the time...even to the elites...i.e. Clemson to Pitt, Ohio St to Iowa and Purdue...but those teams still make the playoffs and win monster games. Hence, why I'm skeptical until I shouldn't be. But, you are right, your overall point is true...each team is independent of each other, but I do think past trends play a part until they don't anymore.
Very good point...but most people who watch the sport realize that Iowa is a far more prolific program than MD, which is a lightweight propped up by media BS. Iowa has actually consistently beat great B1G teams and have nationwide respect. People know how good a win it is at Iowa.
This is an Iowa team coming off a 3 point performance. What about the 2019 Iowa Hawkeyes makes this a "monster" game?
If the game tomorrow is a blow out the narrative won't be that its a good win, itll be that Iowa isn't very good/wasn't a test. If Penn State eeked one out against Maryland it would have probably led to stories about how the team showed "moxie" in a hostile night road game.
It doesn't, I was using it independent of us playing Iowa. That even though elite teams lose, they still win enough big games to get in. We don't yet...Iowa would be a very good win...if we can actually beat Michigan and MSU in the same season, those are great wins IMO due to all the trouble we have had.
Iowa's odds of winning just went way down. The team plane just landed.
Depends on how you define "real test." I think no one is going to dispute that this is the biggest test of the season.
But really taking the second half from Buffalo was a test of sorts. A goal- line stand to win the Pitt game was a test. And going to College Park and turning that game into a clinic was a test of sorts.
Anyway, as you say, it's a young team, and you put young players under pressure, stuff happens. A few turnovers and special teams lapses and this could be an Iowa rout.
At the same time we're all aware of how different PSU's talent and depth is from even two years ago. We haven't really seen that depth win a tough game yet, but it will.
The fourth quarter has been painful for PSU in big games, back to the Rose Bowl -- the offense stalled and the defense would get gassed and allow easy scores. But in the future, maybe this year, PSU will be pulling away in the fourth quarter in some of these games instead of losing leads.
But really taking the second half from Buffalo was a test of sorts. A goal- line stand to win the Pitt game was a test. And going to College Park and turning that game into a clinic was a test of sorts.
Anyway, as you say, it's a young team, and you put young players under pressure, stuff happens. A few turnovers and special teams lapses and this could be an Iowa rout.
At the same time we're all aware of how different PSU's talent and depth is from even two years ago. We haven't really seen that depth win a tough game yet, but it will.
The fourth quarter has been painful for PSU in big games, back to the Rose Bowl -- the offense stalled and the defense would get gassed and allow easy scores. But in the future, maybe this year, PSU will be pulling away in the fourth quarter in some of these games instead of losing leads.
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