I don't really care who makes the MNC invitational this year, but I will be interested to see the logic used by the MNC committee to make their selection.
In 2016, when OSU and Washington were invited over Penn State, head to head wins didn't matter, conference championships didn't matter, and Washington's strength of schedule didn't matter. Penn State lost by too many points to Michigan, some said. But all that really mattered was that Penn State had 2 losses, and the MNC "playoff" teams didn't.
In 2017, conference championships still didn't matter, as Bama was taken over 2-loss OSU. Again, all that mattered was OSU having 2 losses, with one being a bad 55-24 loss to Iowa.
This year, there could be as many as 7 teams with zero or one loss. Will the "bad loss" logic that was used in 2016 against Penn State and in 2017 against OSU be applied to OSU's 49-20 loss to Purdue? If Oklahoma wins against Texas, Oklahoma will have avenged its only loss of the season, which was by only 3 points to Texas.
Will the "weak schedule" argument be used to keep UCF out of the playoff, even though Washington was invited to the MNC tournament in 2016 after playing a non-conference schedule that included Rutgres, Idaho, and Portland State? I do expect the weak schedule excuse will be used to keep UCF from this year's party.
I can't believe college football still can't get its postseason right after all these years, when the answer of having a true 8-team playoff is sitting there in front of them. What will hasten the 4-team invitational system's transition to an 8-team playoff will be the collapse of the MNC committee's internal logic from year to year. The committee can keep UCF out this year, and no one outside of central Florida will care. Further, there is no way this committee will keep out an undefeated Clemson or ND. The committee can still select Alabama, even if Bama loses a close game to Georgia, based on last year's MNC results and the committee's previous use of the "eye test" with respect to Bama. I believe Bama is the only program right now that deserves the benefit of the doubt of the "eye test". Every other team this year could get blown out in an MNC bowl game situation, and the committee knows it.
Where the committee previously screwed up was making conference championships not matter. By removing that perfectly definable selection criterion, the committee eliminated what effectively could have served as a first round of a playoff. As a result, the playoff system will now go to 8 teams once the committee's collapse in logic is exposed and hurts one too many name-brand teams. It happened to Penn State in 2016 and to OSU in 2017. Oklahoma or OSU could fill that role nicely this year--I hope it happens.
The committee is going to have a real logic conundrum if the final MNC spot comes down to Oklahoma vs. OSU. Even through I think OSU is the better team, I fully expect the CFP to select Oklahoma over OSU if both teams win this coming weekend. If they don't, the "bad loss" excuse will fall away, and the committee can't afford to have yet another one of its made-up criteria removed from its arsenal so soon after this bogus system was put into place.
In 2016, when OSU and Washington were invited over Penn State, head to head wins didn't matter, conference championships didn't matter, and Washington's strength of schedule didn't matter. Penn State lost by too many points to Michigan, some said. But all that really mattered was that Penn State had 2 losses, and the MNC "playoff" teams didn't.
In 2017, conference championships still didn't matter, as Bama was taken over 2-loss OSU. Again, all that mattered was OSU having 2 losses, with one being a bad 55-24 loss to Iowa.
This year, there could be as many as 7 teams with zero or one loss. Will the "bad loss" logic that was used in 2016 against Penn State and in 2017 against OSU be applied to OSU's 49-20 loss to Purdue? If Oklahoma wins against Texas, Oklahoma will have avenged its only loss of the season, which was by only 3 points to Texas.
Will the "weak schedule" argument be used to keep UCF out of the playoff, even though Washington was invited to the MNC tournament in 2016 after playing a non-conference schedule that included Rutgres, Idaho, and Portland State? I do expect the weak schedule excuse will be used to keep UCF from this year's party.
I can't believe college football still can't get its postseason right after all these years, when the answer of having a true 8-team playoff is sitting there in front of them. What will hasten the 4-team invitational system's transition to an 8-team playoff will be the collapse of the MNC committee's internal logic from year to year. The committee can keep UCF out this year, and no one outside of central Florida will care. Further, there is no way this committee will keep out an undefeated Clemson or ND. The committee can still select Alabama, even if Bama loses a close game to Georgia, based on last year's MNC results and the committee's previous use of the "eye test" with respect to Bama. I believe Bama is the only program right now that deserves the benefit of the doubt of the "eye test". Every other team this year could get blown out in an MNC bowl game situation, and the committee knows it.
Where the committee previously screwed up was making conference championships not matter. By removing that perfectly definable selection criterion, the committee eliminated what effectively could have served as a first round of a playoff. As a result, the playoff system will now go to 8 teams once the committee's collapse in logic is exposed and hurts one too many name-brand teams. It happened to Penn State in 2016 and to OSU in 2017. Oklahoma or OSU could fill that role nicely this year--I hope it happens.
The committee is going to have a real logic conundrum if the final MNC spot comes down to Oklahoma vs. OSU. Even through I think OSU is the better team, I fully expect the CFP to select Oklahoma over OSU if both teams win this coming weekend. If they don't, the "bad loss" excuse will fall away, and the committee can't afford to have yet another one of its made-up criteria removed from its arsenal so soon after this bogus system was put into place.