If the bleeding stopped today (it won't!), how many years b4 our portfolios are back to...
- Thread starter emertmakeshiteup
- Start date
If the markets came back from 2008 it will come back from this. It will probable take a few years and of course the longer this pandemic goes on the longer the time before any recovery can begin.
The economy was fundamentally strong heading into this.
I think we recover somewhat quickly.
The $1000 checks will be a big boost
LdN
Expectations are horribly low right now. Fed is expecting an 18 month pandemic. We are probably at low ebb today. We may have to live with a 2 to 3% death rate for a year and a half. Perhaps we simply get used to that reality in a few months and business goes on as usual. My opinion is that the govt is going to have to move off of the self quarantine for most of the workforce inside of two months (and, unfortunately, take on additional loss of life risk). By June, the medicine may be more harmful than the disease. In other words, more people may die by financial contraction than the disease itself.
If you were invested in Chinese bat scrotum futures probably never.
If you were in surgical masks, you should be riding high today.
If you were in surgical masks, you should be riding high today.
Most "experts" predict a "V" shape in the market. Fast down and fast up. Our economy was strong hopefully a quick recovery. We see that China is on the health road to recovery.
No, the Fed is preparing themselves for a pandemic that could last up to 18 months. The 18 months is a worst-case scenario, not an expectation.
No question there is a lot of panic in this country about what could possibly turn out to be a "worst case" scenario. There is certainly a chance that could happen.
There is also a chance that within a couple of months the following will occur:
There will be an understanding that for 90% of the people that get this virus, symptoms are mild to moderate - causing what would ordinarily be a "few" days off work.
For the 10% that have more severe symptoms, there will be announcements that are some positive results from medications, thus lessening the severity of the disease for anyone in this category.
For all of us, there will be announcements regarding creation of a vaccine will be readily available in about a year.
If these three things happen, people will get out and back to work and the recovery will be quicker than the "worst case" scenario.
I am going to take the optimistic point of view and hope the worst is behind us within 3 months - not 18.
I hope you’re right about the three months. I’m sure it won’t be 18 months but have no idea about the short end.
Let me try to be clear. People will still be getting sick from this 18 months from now, unless there is a silver bullet discovered. The problem is, there is also some expectation that this virus introduced a "brave new world". The world will come out of this differently, than it is today. We are talking about office space, real estate, brick and mortar locations...etc. As first hand experience, I am being told this event will be much more challenging than 2008 and it won't be close.
I think it depends on your stocks. I had a small portfolio, just barely 6 digits in size, that has taken about a 15% hit. But the stocks were Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Disney, Berkshire-Hathaway B, and a few others. Those will be back by this time next year, more or less.
No V shaped recovery, more like an L shaped and then a slow but steady rise starting late spring in 2021, but Hey I could be wrong. I am thinking 18k on DOW may be a bottom but smart money won't pile in until more positive news on virus surfaces. I guess they are using Chloroquine Phosphate in China and South Korea to ease some of the recovery.
Nobody here knows the answer to that question.
Look at Pearl Harbor to D-Day. Hopefully we are somewhere between PH and Coral Sea.
So we have a range of 2-3 months to maybe never. This was a useful exercise.
95% of Starbucks are open again in China. Of course they are able to address the problem in a different fashion.
I like your thinking. It lacks hysteria. Surely, the panic will bring about a vaccine more quickly than in other cases. Israel is on the verge of a vaccine that may be available to the public in a shorter period of time then we might expect - if the story is accurate. And, there will be developed medications that will reduce the impact of infection. I can also see the market subject to a feeding frenzy on the low prices.
The last few deaths from this will likely come 18 months from January 2020. A vaccine may come in 13 months at best; but it will take some time before everyone gets it.
About the same answers that would have been to the question of when you get laid next.
People need to STFU about 18 months. That's a SWAG instilling fear and nothing more
Thats because it had only a 0.02% mortality rate, only 1/5 that of normal flu. It also didn’t pose the threat to overburden our health industry to the point of not having treatment available. Also, they had better treatments available. So it’s really completely pointless to compare swine flu to this.
As I said in a different thread, I have confidence in our people. We are a great nation, great people. No, everything is not perfect, that is impossible in the human condition. The American people want to succeed and they are willing to work.
Keep taxes and regulations as low as possible, keep rates low and the economy will come roaring back. Get an Infrastructure program going, it’s needed badly and will provide future assets.
I think it will take a year but I’m optimistic.
Keep taxes and regulations as low as possible, keep rates low and the economy will come roaring back. Get an Infrastructure program going, it’s needed badly and will provide future assets.
I think it will take a year but I’m optimistic.
How can China recover if the rest of the world can't afford to buy their products?
We’ll get back to 90% of the highs in 3 years, and hit new ones in 5-6, barring a major setback, most likely in political/war arena.
Business cycles dont call for 18 month contractions. What are you talking about? Yes the business cycle is real, but if you want to bet that it will last 18 months, I'll take you up on that
