Interesting link posted by Franklin_Restores

[BDB57]

He posted a link that listed all the NCAA wrestling champions from 1929 till today who went to HS in PA and what College they attended when they won their championships. He pointed out that 7 of the last 10 Champions from PA attended PSU.

While looking over the list I noticed that PA produced 6 Champions in 1988, 5 in 1965, 4 in 1957 & 1989 and 3 in 8 other years. All told 106 NCAA champs in that time frame.

Is there a stats historian type individual that might be able to come up with how other top wrestling states compare to these incredible numbers??

This my attempt at posting the link: If it does not link it is on page 2 of the thread "All About Recruiting"

http://d6wrestling.com/NCAA Champs/PaNCAAchamps.htm


PS(U)
My thanks to Franklin_Restores for the post!

 

[Mpchillin]

http://mwolverine.com/Top_Wrestling_States.html

 

[Mpchillin]

It appears Oklahoma is the leader per state with 153 but 100 came before 1960. Iowa has 116 total after adding McDonough (2012), St.John (2013), and Gadson (2015). Pennsylvania is 3rd with 108. Also, interesting to see the top high schools listed. Blair Academy is first with 7 individuals and 14 total titles after adding Ruth's 3. Waterloo West is second with 5 individual champions, producing 7 total titles after adding Gadson.

 

[BDB57]

Any figures as to the highest number of champs in a single year by any other program???

 

[Mpchillin]

Any figures as to the highest number of champs in a single year by any other program???

Do you mean by state? I just glanced through and looked for Iowa and the most I saw was 3 in a year a number of times but could be mistaken.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

It appears Oklahoma is the leader per state with 153 but 100 came before 1960. Iowa has 116 total after adding McDonough (2012), St.John (2013), and Gadson (2015). Pennsylvania is 3rd with 108. Also, interesting to see the top high schools listed. Blair Academy is first with 7 individuals and 14 total titles after adding Ruth's 3. Waterloo West is second with 5 individual champions, producing 7 total titles after adding Gadson.

Over the last 25 years (i.e., 1987 NCAA Championships through 2016 NCAA Championships) Native Pennsylvania wrestlers have produced 46 NCAA Titles - IOW almost 2 per year. Over the last 50 years, (1967 NCAA Championships through 2016 NCAA Championships), Native Pennsylvania wrestlers have produced 70 NCAA Titles. No other state has come close to these numbers over the last quarter-century or half-century and Pennsylvania has dominated the production of NCAA All-Americans over these time periods in the same manner.

Since Cael's arrival at PSU (i.e., beginning with the 2010 NCAA Championships), there have been 10 titles won by Native Pennsylvania wrestlers (again, I'm willing to wager more than any other state over this 6 year span) - 70% of those titles were recorded at PSU. The engine driving Cael's Ferrari is quite clear.......and it is precisely what Cael said it was going to be all the way back in 2009 when he took the PSU (i.e., the explanation as to why he left his alma mater, ISU, and took the PSU Head Coaching position - IOW, there were resources and opportunities available to him in Pennsylvania that would allow him to accomplish his coaching goals of building a "dynasty" that simply were not present at ISU and never would be present at ISU because many of the unique advantages of his new job had to do with PSU being located in Pennsylvania and in the heart of the most fertile recruiting territory in the nation.).

Here is another great link that I have posted in the past - hit the hotlink below:

Native Pennsylvania NCAA All-Americans by Year​

Pennsylvania has produced a staggering 86 All-Americans since Cael took the PSU Head Coaching position (i.e., 2010 NCAA Championships to present) - that's over 14 per year. 18 of those 86 (~20%) were recorded at PSU despite all of PSU's 18 Native Pennsylvania AAs under Cael coming in the last 5 years (i.e., 2011-2016....PSU had zero Native Pennsylvania AAs in 2010).

 

[Mpchillin]

I would guess Ohio is right up there as far as champions in the last 6 years with Taylor, Stieber and Heil with 8 off of the top of my head but yes, Pennsylvania is the top dog over the past 25 years.

 

[RoarLions1]

The info I've collected over the recent past (2010 to 2016, inclusive) can give a snapshot by state, if interested. Will take some time, and only contains NCAA Qualifier and All-American data by state (i.e. not by "National Champs by State").

 

[BDB57]

Mpchillin.......I made a mistake.

"Any figures as to the highest number of champs in a single year by any other program???"

Should have been..... Any figures on the highest number of NCAA champions in a single year by another state? I had previously posted that PA had 6 individual champs in 1988.

 

[Mpchillin]

Mpchillin.......I made a mistake.

"Any figures as to the highest number of champs in a single year by any other program???"

Should have been..... Any figures on the highest number of NCAA champions in a single year by another state? I had previously posted that PA had 6 individual champs in 1988.

I haven't really looked into any other state other than Iowa and the most I found for them was 3 unless I missed someone. My guess would be 6 is the most unless Oklahoma had more in the pre-1960 era.

 

[jmadden1998]

Newbie here. First off, I am a Hawkeye fan but like to follow BWI as well. Lots of great info being shared. I am kind of a statistics geek so I went back to 1987 and looked up home states for each of the champions.

Pennsylvania 46
Iowa 34
Ohio 31
Oklahoma 28
New Jersey 21
California 21
New York 18
Illinois 16
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 9

As mentioned previously, Pennsylvania had 6 champions in 1988 which is the most. The second most is 4 for PA in 1989 and 4 for IA in 1987. I'm not sure how to attach the spreadsheet so if anyone wants to see it, I will need some help. Thanks.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Newbie here. First off, I am a Hawkeye fan but like to follow BWI as well. Lots of great info being shared. I am kind of a statistics geek so I went back to 1987 and looked up home states for each of the champions.

Pennsylvania 46
Iowa 34
Ohio 31
Oklahoma 28
New Jersey 21
California 21
New York 18
Illinois 16
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 9

As mentioned previously, Pennsylvania had 6 champions in 1988 which is the most. The second most is 4 for PA in 1989 and 4 for IA in 1987. I'm not sure how to attach the spreadsheet so if anyone wants to see it, I will need some help. Thanks.

Just curious, where did you count Ed Ruth's Championships?

 

[jmadden1998]

I counted all 3 as PA. Did he only wrestle at Blair his senior year?

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

I counted all 3 as PA. Did he only wrestle at Blair his senior year?

Believe so. He's from the Harrisburg area I believe, which is not even the part of Pennsylvania directly across the border from Blair (Blair Academy is in Blair, NJ which is a couple miles over the border across the Delaware River from Pennsylvania on I-80. The Pennsylvania town on I-80 directly across the Delaware River is East Stroudsburg -- home of East Stroudsburg State University.).

 

[jmadden1998]

I took the data a step further and looked up the total high school wrestling participants for the 10 states from 1987-2015. This is available at nfhs.org. I then averaged this for the time period and then calculated the chances of a high school wrestler from each state winning an NCAA championship. The results

Oklahoma 28 champs 2855 average 1 in 102 chance
Iowa 34 champs 7040 average 1 in 207 chance
Pennsylvania 46 champs 10149 average 1 in 221 chance
New Jersey 21 champs 9069 average 1 in 432 chance
Ohio 31 champs 13582 average 1 in 438 chance
New York 18 champs 12785 average 1 in 710 chance
Wisconsin 10 champs 7531 average 1 in 753 chance
Illinois 16 champs 15276 average 1 in 955 chance
California 21 champs 23423 average 1 in 1115 chance
Michigan 9 champs 11292 average 1 in 1255 chance

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

I took the data a step further and looked up the total high school wrestling participants for the 10 states from 1987-2015. This is available at nfhs.org. I then averaged this for the time period and then calculated the chances of a high school wrestler from each state winning an NCAA championship. The results

Oklahoma 28 champs 2855 average 1 in 102 chance
Iowa 34 champs 7040 average 1 in 207 chance
Pennsylvania 46 champs 10149 average 1 in 221 chance
New Jersey 21 champs 9069 average 1 in 432 chance
Ohio 31 champs 13582 average 1 in 438 chance
New York 18 champs 12785 average 1 in 710 chance
Wisconsin 10 champs 7531 average 1 in 753 chance
Illinois 16 champs 15276 average 1 in 955 chance
California 21 champs 23423 average 1 in 1115 chance
Michigan 9 champs 11292 average 1 in 1255 chance

The number of AAs is where PA really shows as well though..... Pennsy produces numbers for a "large population" state like no other which translates into a large number of individuals. IOW, Cael is absolutely correct, he has a massive ocean of highly populated quality wrestlers to chose from (especially when you consider that PA is surrounded by NY to North, NJ to East and OH to West) - not a good fishing pond or watering hole.

 

[RoarLions1]

South Dakota had the highest AA's per capita (population) 3 of the last 7 years .

 

[jmadden1998]

The most accurate method is to use the participation numbers for each state. That way high population states aren't showing low percentages of AA's or champions just because of their size. We have to look at actual kids wrestling in high school in each state. PA had 9860 high school wrestlers and IA had 6424 in 2015. That's 53.5% higher for PA but if we used just population PA would be 400% higher since they have about 4 times as many people. Like I said, I'm a statistics geek so I will go through and calculate chances of becoming an AA like Franklin mentioned above.

 

[dunkej01]

The most accurate method is to use the participation numbers for each state. That way high population states aren't showing low percentages of AA's or champions just because of their size. We have to look at actual kids wrestling in high school in each state. PA had 9860 high school wrestlers and IA had 6424 in 2015. That's 53.5% higher for PA but if we used just population PA would be 400% higher since they have about 4 times as many people. Like I said, I'm a statistics geek so I will go through and calculate chances of becoming an AA like Franklin mentioned above.

Great info and welcome!

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

The most accurate method is to use the participation numbers for each state. That way high population states aren't showing low percentages of AA's or champions just because of their size. We have to look at actual kids wrestling in high school in each state. PA had 9860 high school wrestlers and IA had 6424 in 2015. That's 53.5% higher for PA but if we used just population PA would be 400% higher since they have about 4 times as many people. Like I said, I'm a statistics geek so I will go through and calculate chances of becoming an AA like Franklin mentioned above.

Yep, get all that, but even adjusted for participation as you did, it doesn't change the fact that Pennsylvania will generate 53.5% more AAs, DI wrestlers, etc... even if the states are producing quality wrestlers at the same "rate". IOW, Pennsylvania is unique in that it produces quality wrestlers at a high rate relative to participation, but it also has one of the highest participation numbers due to being a high-population state (for instance, it isn't coincidence that CA, NY, PA, IL, OH and MI are all over 10K in participation --- the large number of participants accrues primarily to the fact that these States are all among the 10 largest by population - CA #1, NY #3, IL#5, PA #6, OH #7 and MI #10). Despite 100% of the states over 10K in participation being among the Top 10 largest states by population in the U.S., Pennsylvania is the only one that creates ultra high quality wrestlers (i.e., AAs) at a rate comparable to the small-population states of Iowa and Oklahoma - translated, this means that PSU produces way more ultra high quality wrestlers than anywhere else in the US on an "absolute basis", not a "relative basis".

 

[jmadden1998]

I agree with you. I hope you don't think I was trying to diminish the performances of PA wrestlers. That was not my intention at all. I know some will try to argue that the only reason PA has more champions or AA's is because they have more people. If that was the case, California should have the most every year. I think the AA numbers will back this up so I'm interested to see how they come out.

 

[raslen007]

The southeastern part of PA (Philly area) which is very populated does not have the highest of wrestling participation.

 

[RoarLions1]

7 years of data, by state, by population and raw data, for both Qualifiers and AA's. Interested? Just a couple...ok, more than a couple...clicks.

 

[Dogwelder]

I took the data a step further and looked up the total high school wrestling participants for the 10 states from 1987-2015. This is available at nfhs.org. I then averaged this for the time period and then calculated the chances of a high school wrestler from each state winning an NCAA championship. The results

Oklahoma 28 champs 2855 average 1 in 102 chance
Iowa 34 champs 7040 average 1 in 207 chance
Pennsylvania 46 champs 10149 average 1 in 221 chance
New Jersey 21 champs 9069 average 1 in 432 chance
Ohio 31 champs 13582 average 1 in 438 chance
New York 18 champs 12785 average 1 in 710 chance
Wisconsin 10 champs 7531 average 1 in 753 chance
Illinois 16 champs 15276 average 1 in 955 chance
California 21 champs 23423 average 1 in 1115 chance
Michigan 9 champs 11292 average 1 in 1255 chance

Nice information and work, jmadden.

Just to clarify your terminology, the 1 in 102 "chance" you give is a scaled number that is good for comparisons to other states but that does not have an everyday use (chance = 1 in "wrestlers per year per champ"). Just for fun, I de-scaled your numbers by 28 years to obtain the chance that a random high school wrestler in a state would have of becoming an NCAA champ (chance = 1 in "wrestlers per champ"). EDIT: Actually, my numbers will be pessimistic by a factor within the range of 1 to 4, because participants number would count a 4-year wrestler as 4 wrestlers and 2-year wrestlers as 2 wrestlers. [footnote]

1 in 2,855 Oklahoma
1 in 5,798 Iowa
1 in 6,178 Pennsylvania
1 in 12,092 New Jersey
1 in 12,268 Ohio
1 in 19,888 New York
1 in 21,087 Wisconsin
1 in 26,733 Illinois
1 in 31,231 California
1 in 35,131 Michigan

[footnote: I also don't know whether you're counting champs by counting gold medals or unique champs, but either way, the numbers would be useful, we'd just have to call it something different. And we can just ignore the minor complications that the class of 2015 have not finished their college careers, since it'll be a ~wash with the champs of 1987, 1988, etc., etc.]

 

[jmadden1998]

My numbers are total champions, not number of wrestlers. For example, Oklahoma State had 28 titles but 15 wrestlers accounted for those titles.

 

[Dogwelder]

My numbers are total champions, not number of wrestlers. For example, Oklahoma State had 28 titles but 15 wrestlers accounted for those titles.

Thanks!

 

[RoarLions1]

Adding to all the great stats...from 2010 through 2016, or 7 years of the national tournament, this is the normalized data for National Qualifiers and All-Americans, top 15 only;

Qualifiers per million people (state population)
IA 4.39
PA 4.25
SD 3.29
NJ 2.88
OH 2.67
DE 2.20
MT 2.00
CO 1.87
UT 1.72
MN 1.63
OK 1.62
MO 1.59
MI 1.58
IL 1.51
WY 1.51

All-Americans per million people (state population)
IA 1.68
SD 1.21
PA 0.98
ID 0.81
DE 0.79
OH 0.71
MN 0.69
VT 0.68
ND 0.63
UT 0.61
NJ 0.58
CO 0.56
MO 0.52
WY 0.50
OK 0.41

National Qualifiers per thousand High School Wrestlers;
PA 5.56
VT 5.04
OH 2.66
NJ 2.57
SD 2.07
IA 2.00
CO 1.79
DE 1.76
OK 1.69
MI 1.50
NY 1.48
UT 1.44
MT 1.33
NH 1.28
MO 1.26

AA's per thousand High School Wrestlers
VT 2.52 (all credit to Vermonster, in a very small wrestling state)
PA 1.28
IA 0.77
SD 0.76
OH 0.70
DE 0.63
CO 0.53
NJ 0.52
ID 0.52
UT 0.51
ND 0.50
MN 0.46
OK 0.43
MO 0.41
MI 0.36