Iowa Prediction

[bdgan]

From collegefootballnews.com. FWIW I think it's pretty fair except for one thing. They are counting on McSorley being intercepted 3 times. I don't think that happens but if it does PSU is in trouble. If PSU protects the football they should win 31-23.

Finally, the Nittany Lions play a team that isn’t miserable at playing college football.

Akron? Miserable. Pitt? Yeah, miserable. Georgia State? Probably the most miserable team in college football.

And we’re all supposed to gush over a 3-0 start against this slate?

Beat Iowa, and yeah, it’ll be time to gush away.

One Reason Why Penn State Will Win
Akrum Wadley is a special back working behind a great line, but so far the ground game has been solid, not amazing averaging 180 yards per game.

The pass protection has been there, and the line has come through when absolutely needed, but Penn State has had the defensive front dialed up to a whole other level.

Again, the Nittany Lions have played the equivalent of a bowl of soggy Crunch Berries so far, but they’re No. 1 in the nation in tackles for loss with 34 so far, and they’re crushing it with the pass rush.

Iowa’s offensive line is at a whole other level from what Penn State has faced so far, but the pressure in the backfield should still be there from the start.

One Reason Why Iowa Will Win
Penn State might never have the ball.

As long as the the Hawkeyes can keep the explosive Nittany Lion plays to a bare minimum, they should be able to stay in control of the game by grinding down the clock and going on decent, long marches.

Even with everything Penn State has done right, it’s been awful so far on third downs – Iowa is 11th in the nation in third down defense.

Penn State might hit on big play after big play against bad defenses, but it’s still going to be a problem if it holds on to the ball for just 24 minutes like it’s been doing. Iowa is sixth in the country in time of possession.

There will be times when the Hawkeyes offense will bog down, or will need a big play and won’t be able to get it. But the defense will clean up a whole slew of messes.

What’s Going To Happen
If you want to use the Michigan win last year as a comp, go ahead, but this is a better Iowa team than the one that pulled off the thriller last season.

Penn State will have its moments when Saquon Barkley is Saquon Barkley, but he’ll also be bottled up just enough to make Trace McSorley try to win the game. Three picks from the Iowa secondary and a solid day from the pounding running game later, and the top five in the polls will see a major shakeup.

Penn State vs. Iowa Prediction
Final Score
Iowa 23, Penn State 20

http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/09/penn-state-iowa-prediction-game-preview

 

[tboyer]

Seems pretty mainstream -- Iowa can win if their offense can hold on to the ball for 35-40 minutes and reduce the number of PSU possessions. Then if McSorley has a bad day and produces turnovers, PSU blows too many of those possessions and loses.

But .... McSorley is being more careful with the ball this year, as he should be. Secondaries are going to understand what PSU is doing and will be trying to bait him into mistakes.

 

[Rollin Stone]

Most people think that the Iowa OL is significantly better than what Pitt had. Just asking I haven't watched Iowa at all this season.

Tia

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Yawn.

Penn State looks great but has beaten nobody. They'll lose.
Iowa looks OK but has beaten nobody and struggled at points. They'll win.

 

[fairgambit]

Stating the obvious, the Iowa game will tell us a lot about this team. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not convinced the defense is of championship caliber and I think the offense is capable of being shut down if Trace has an off game. I expect a 10-2 season, and one of the losses could be this week. If we win easily, with a sold defensive performance, I may revise my thinking. We'll know soon enough.

 

[Cosmos]

From collegefootballnews.com. FWIW I think it's pretty fair except for one thing. They are counting on McSorley being intercepted 3 times. I don't think that happens but if it does PSU is in trouble. If PSU protects the football they should win 31-23.

Finally, the Nittany Lions play a team that isn’t miserable at playing college football.

Akron? Miserable. Pitt? Yeah, miserable. Georgia State? Probably the most miserable team in college football.

And we’re all supposed to gush over a 3-0 start against this slate?

Beat Iowa, and yeah, it’ll be time to gush away.

One Reason Why Penn State Will Win
Akrum Wadley is a special back working behind a great line, but so far the ground game has been solid, not amazing averaging 180 yards per game.

The pass protection has been there, and the line has come through when absolutely needed, but Penn State has had the defensive front dialed up to a whole other level.

Again, the Nittany Lions have played the equivalent of a bowl of soggy Crunch Berries so far, but they’re No. 1 in the nation in tackles for loss with 34 so far, and they’re crushing it with the pass rush.

Iowa’s offensive line is at a whole other level from what Penn State has faced so far, but the pressure in the backfield should still be there from the start.

One Reason Why Iowa Will Win
Penn State might never have the ball.

As long as the the Hawkeyes can keep the explosive Nittany Lion plays to a bare minimum, they should be able to stay in control of the game by grinding down the clock and going on decent, long marches.

Even with everything Penn State has done right, it’s been awful so far on third downs – Iowa is 11th in the nation in third down defense.

Penn State might hit on big play after big play against bad defenses, but it’s still going to be a problem if it holds on to the ball for just 24 minutes like it’s been doing. Iowa is sixth in the country in time of possession.

There will be times when the Hawkeyes offense will bog down, or will need a big play and won’t be able to get it. But the defense will clean up a whole slew of messes.

What’s Going To Happen
If you want to use the Michigan win last year as a comp, go ahead, but this is a better Iowa team than the one that pulled off the thriller last season.

Penn State will have its moments when Saquon Barkley is Saquon Barkley, but he’ll also be bottled up just enough to make Trace McSorley try to win the game. Three picks from the Iowa secondary and a solid day from the pounding running game later, and the top five in the polls will see a major shakeup.

Penn State vs. Iowa Prediction
Final Score
Iowa 23, Penn State 20

http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/09/penn-state-iowa-prediction-game-preview

Okay, so the premise is as follows...

• Pitt is $hitty because it lost to two top ten teams
• Iowa has improved over LY. PSU has not.
• Iowa has played a tougher schedule
• Iowa can win through TOP despite PSU proving it can win without it
• And of course TM must be a turnover machine in order to give Iowa a chance

It's the same ole $hit. Look, I recognize Iowa's strengths. I recognize PSU's weaknesses. I've watched Iowa. The planets must align in order for them to win. They have great lines but you don't play the game in a phone booth. They don't have the athletes on the perimeter. They'll get their yards and will score but they won't be able to keep pace. Our defenses pitches a few stops and it's all over but the crying in Iowa City. This aint Michigan from last year. This is the present. And this is Iowa!

 

[Dave-97]

Iowa matched up well against Paterno's style, that's why they beat us in close games, they out uglied us. We played them twice post Paterno, two blowouts.
It won't be close...

 

[Cosmos]

Yawn.

Penn State looks great but has beaten nobody. They'll lose.
Iowa looks OK but has beaten nobody and struggled at points. They'll win.

Exactly! It's conclusion selective.

 

[Cosmos]

Iowa matched up well against Paterno's style, that's why they beat us in close games, they out uglied us. We played them twice post Paterno, two blowouts.
It won't be close...

I wish I could be as optimistic, Dave. If the offense was uncorked I would agree. It's not quite there yet. We will win comfortably providing the kids don't come out flat.

 

[Obliviax]

I don't feel like Iowa has the horses to stop our offense. Josey Jewell, even with the coolest name in the B1G, cannot stop #26 at both run and pass. My concern is stopping Iowa's running game and TE (complimenting the running game). Our DL needs to bring pressure and the LBs need to step up.

Turnovers are always an issue but PSU has been great at controlling TO's (we don't give or get many). So I see this being a draw.

I feel like PSUs special teams are much better than they've been historically. I also wonder why people point out Iowa's beating UM but not getting trounced by us at home last year?

Regardless, I see it PSU 38 - Iowa 17.

 

[bdgan]

Okay, so the premise is as follows...

• Pitt is $hitty because it lost to two top ten teams

Pitt is $hitty because they got blown out in the 1st quarter by two top 10 teams and needed OT to beat Youngstown State.

I don't know if Iowa or PSU have improved but PSU hasn't proved anything so far. PSU's early schedule turned out to be horrible. I agree with you that PSU has much more explosive athletes on the perimeter and they are counting on PSU turnovers to allow Iowa to win. I don't think that happens but stranger things have happened during night games in Iowa.

 

[bdgan]

Iowa matched up well against Paterno's style, that's why they beat us in close games, they out uglied us. We played them twice post Paterno, two blowouts.
It won't be close...

I agree that our offense is much different. As long as we don't turn the ball over we should be able to score 30 points. It will be interesting to see if Blacknall has more impact this week.

On defense I think PSU gives up rushing yards because of their approach. Not so many traditional 4-3 alignments. There's usually a LB lined up at the LOS with lots of blitzing. That leaves the middle soft and vulnerable to plenty of 5-6 yard gains. It also gives them a greater opportunity for negative plays. I'm not sure if that's a good trade-off or not.

 

[tboyer]

Most people think that the Iowa OL is significantly better than what Pitt had. Just asking I haven't watched Iowa at all this season.

Tia

I think we don't know a lot about Iowa yet. Their OL is in flux somewhat because of losing Boettiger. Their defense should have the horses to be a problem but they haven't played that well so far this year. They had to replace Desmond King who was their all-American corner, and Ferentz is juggling safeties right now because he's not happy with safety play.

The one way in which Iowa is improved is QB and receivers. Their receiver core is very young but at least they have guys who can run -- last year they didn't. They have a young QB who is playing well -- though someone noted he is not very accurate throwing deep.

 

[olelion]

Careful with that. This Pete Fiutak, whoever he is, does not like Penn State. Has consistently ranked them well below any norm and has Barkley as second or third team AA.
That aside, I'm quite worried about this game. Does Penn State have to play better than they have so far?.........maybe. Does Iowa have to play better than they have so far?.........definitely

 

[frydaze]

Iowa fan here.

Iowa will easily be the best team Penn State has faced all season (probably not saying much).

The atmosphere in Iowa City will be raucous. Fans having the entire day to tailgate before hand will make it a wild scene by kickoff time.

Historically Iowa has played very well in these national spotlight games in Kinnick Stadium. Iowa is 3-0 in their last 3 games played at home versus top 5 ranked teams coming in.

With all this said, however, I still am predicting a Penn State win in a close game.

 

[Limestone_Lion]

I do not think this game is going to be close. We have better players at every position group, other than O-line and linebacker. Their O-line will be neutralized with our D-line. I do not think they are good enough to prevent us from getting to Stanley, and I truly believe we are going to make them throw the ball by blitzing. We have not shown much of any blitzing in the Non Con, and I expect them to bring pressure from everywhere to slow down wadley, and make the Stanley beat us. Only issue for Iowa is that our Secondary is actually really good, and are way better athletes then they are.

Their linebackers are not even close to good enough to run with #26, #88, #2, or any of our receivers. Same goes for their secondary.
#26 is much bigger than any corner, faster than any safety or linebacker, and this doesnt just pertain to Iowa, this goes for the entire country. I would hate to be a DC against him

Our O-line has played very well when it comes to pass protection, and mediocre at best run blocking. This tells me we are going to see an air raid, with #26 running once they back off the LOS and only have 5-6 in the box.

They do not have the athletes to beat PSU.

PSU only loses if PSU plays like garbage and gives the ball away.

PSU wins, and covers. 42-21.

Side note: It is weird, I am very confident in this game.

 

[Obliviax]

I agree that our offense is much different. As long as we don't turn the ball over we should be able to score 30 points. It will be interesting to see if Blacknall has more impact this week.

On defense I think PSU gives up rushing yards because of their approach. Not so many traditional 4-3 alignments. There's usually a LB lined up at the LOS with lots of blitzing. That leaves the middle soft and vulnerable to plenty of 5-6 yard gains. It also gives them a greater opportunity for negative plays. I'm not sure if that's a good trade-off or not.

..and we give up yards because we've been up big in the first quarter. They want to win TOP and lose by double digits, fine by me.

 

[maxxedout]

Not close after the first quarter in terms of the scoreboard.

Iowa will win TOP but will not be able to stop Penn State on the perimeter and over the top. They will make our O line look flimsy at times and will challenge our run defense significantly.

First Q: 10-3 PSU
Second Q: 17-3 PSU
Third Q: 21-10
Final: 35-13

 

[frydaze]

I do not think this game is going to be close. We have better players at every position group, other than O-line and linebacker. Their O-line will be neutralized with our D-line. I do not think they are good enough to prevent us from getting to Stanley, and I truly believe we are going to make them throw the ball by blitzing. We have not shown much of any blitzing in the Non Con, and I expect them to bring pressure from everywhere to slow down wadley, and make the Stanley beat us. Only issue for Iowa is that our Secondary is actually really good, and are way better athletes then they are.

Their linebackers are not even close to good enough to run with #26, #88, #2, or any of our receivers. Same goes for their secondary.
#26 is much bigger than any corner, faster than any safety or linebacker, and this doesnt just pertain to Iowa, this goes for the entire country. I would hate to be a DC against him

Our O-line has played very well when it comes to pass protection, and mediocre at best run blocking. This tells me we are going to see an air raid, with #26 running once they back off the LOS and only have 5-6 in the box.

They do not have the athletes to beat PSU.

PSU only loses if PSU plays like garbage and gives the ball away.

PSU wins, and covers. 42-21.

Side note: It is weird, I am very confident in this game.

WHo knows, you may end up being right.

But in reading your analysis I remember reading an analysis in the Hawkeye Lounge the day before the Iowa-Michigan game last year from a Michigan fan about his Wolverines and how they matched up against us. And actually he was likely pretty close to being accurate in his analysis. But then.........

Hoping for the same thing tomorrow.

 

[BisbeeMike]

...except for one small thing: "College Football News" is the biggest hater of PSU in all of media. Hands down.

 

[olelion]

Remember this. Iowa under Ferentz has seldom played against this type of offense. Their pre-conference schedule consists of ISU and a couple of other directional schools (occasional variations with Pitt and Arizona) that run traditional type offenses. They recruit and develop players to play against traditional Big Ten offenses. That is a disadvantage when going against wide open, talented, fast wide open offenses.

 

[Limestone_Lion]

WHo knows, you may end up being right.

But in reading your analysis I remember reading an analysis in the Hawkeye Lounge the day before the Iowa-Michigan game last year from a Michigan fan about his Wolverines and how they matched up against us. And actually he was likely pretty close to being accurate in his analysis. But then.........

Hoping for the same thing tomorrow.

I agree, anything can happen. I just do not think it is tomorrow night. It is not meant to be disparaging against Iowa, just that I think PSU is that good.

 

[Madsol]

Reading that preview, Iowa fans really should be upset that they needed OT with ISU and struggled for a while with N. Texas. Talk about a bunch of underachievers, what with their great running back and great OL and great defense that can clean up all kinds of messes. Wonder if it's too late for James to just cancel the charter flight and stay home.

I bet you a nickel that if PSU wins convincingly that the yahoo who wrote this will just add Iowa to the list of no-good teams we've played. Play with a chip on your shoulders boys and shut up these jerks.​

 

[JWB389]

I think people are discounting the Pitt team that showed up at the Beav. Maybe they played out of their minds? Their Super Bowl? They shot their wad on us.

 

[BisbeeMike]

Iowa is one game, out of 12. Nothing more, nothing less. Just win baby.

 

[psualt]

PSU 38-13. Going under the assumption that our defense has been pretty bland and not needed to show a whole lot.

 

[tboyer]

Iowa matched up well against Paterno's style, that's why they beat us in close games, they out uglied us. We played them twice post Paterno, two blowouts.
It won't be close...

Paterno offenses were never able to really exploit the speed advantages in space.

But to be fair, Iowa had a lot of great players when they were chewing up Paterno teams.They usually had a great back, like Shonn Greene, at least one and sometimes two great wideouts, often 1 great corner, and usually a couple of NFL quality defensive linemen to go with the usual excellence on the OL.

This Iowa team has a couple great players -- Wadley, Jewell, and their phenom true freshman DE. But overall maybe not as talented as Ferentz has had in the past.

Last year they had almost a total absence of wideouts when the played PSU. This year their wideout situation is much improved but still not ideal -- a lot of inexperience.

Really an argument could be made that the game will come down to how well Iowa matches up with PSU on the LOS. And right now that's nearly impossible to predict. Both teams' lines haven't been dominant but they've done some good work as well.

If Iowa OL can't push PSU around between the tackles, they will have trouble with their sweeps because PSU is so quick to the edge (that was a problem for Iowa last year). If PSU can't push the Iowa DL around enough to get passing lanes, McSorley could have some difficulty seeing people open like he did vs. Pitt.

I think CFN's prediction is just a little flip. Forecast 3 INTs and a lot of teams will lose. But how likely is it for Trace to suddenly throw three picks in a game? He hasn't done that yet, and his picks are probably going down this year with experience. PItt did everything they could do bait McSorley into INTs but he didn't take the bait.

 

[Woodpecker]

Josey Jewell, even with the coolest name in the B1G

Maybe. But don't discount
Dawson (I am) DeGroot
Tito Odenigbo
Ayo Shogbonyo
Coy Cronk (OK, not as good as that shy piece of meat, Coy Bacon)
Mike Fiacable (I feel bad for his sister)
Whop Philyor (Great first name for a football player)
Fofie Bazzie
Jake Funk (Does he bring it?)
Jacquille Veii
Noah Furbush
Elysee Mbem-Bosse
Messiah deWeaver
Brock Annexstad
Adekunle Ayinde
Ken Handy-Holly
Freedom Akinmoladun
Chee Anyanwu
Paddy (Stix?) Fisher
Mason Weissenhofer
Tuf Borland
Semisi Fakasiieiki (4 consecutive vowels!)
Richie Worship
McDerby Ceneus
Quintez Cephus
Olive Sagapolu
and others.

 

[PSU87]

Not close after the first quarter in terms of the scoreboard.

Iowa will win TOP but will not be able to stop Penn State on the perimeter and over the top. They will make our O line look flimsy at times and will challenge our run defense significantly.

First Q: 10-3 PSU
Second Q: 17-3 PSU
Third Q: 21-10
Final: 35-13

So we only score 2 safeties in the 3rd quarter?

 

[Madsol]

I think people are discounting the Pitt team that showed up at the Beav. Maybe they played out of their minds? Their Super Bowl? They shot their wad on us.

I agree with this. Pitt did the same thing last year, but last year they were good enough and experienced enough to play a close game with OSU the next week. This year a less talented and less experienced Pitt team combined with a better OSU team led to the result we saw last week. Not sure if that means anything in terms of what to expect tomorrow but the Pitt game will be helpful for us preparing for Iowa.

 

[greenmanRD]

WHo knows, you may end up being right.

But in reading your analysis I remember reading an analysis in the Hawkeye Lounge the day before the Iowa-Michigan game last year from a Michigan fan about his Wolverines and how they matched up against us. And actually he was likely pretty close to being accurate in his analysis. But then.........

Hoping for the same thing tomorrow.

The difference is Michigan plays a style that plays into Iowa's hands. Iowa doesn't have the athletes on the perimeter to keep up with our playmakers. If Saquon gets the edge I'm not sure who on Iowa is stopping him.

 

[Gonzo Bloor]

Iowa's 3-0 record is veiling the fact that this is very much a transitional/rebuilding year. New QB, new WRs, new TEs, new DBs, new OC. The offense has looked better than expected, the defense has looked worse than expected. The OL has underwhelmed. The DL can't penetrate and is struggling to keep opposing OL off of our LBs. I think there'll be a lot of energy and we'll have a solid gameplan. I see it being a tight game early but into the 2nd half I don't think we have the horses to keep pace with all of PSU's offensive weapons. Lions pull away late. 38-20.

 

[Long Live The King (JoePa)]

From collegefootballnews.com. FWIW I think it's pretty fair except for one thing. They are counting on McSorley being intercepted 3 times. I don't think that happens but if it does PSU is in trouble. If PSU protects the football they should win 31-23.

Finally, the Nittany Lions play a team that isn’t miserable at playing college football.

Akron? Miserable. Pitt? Yeah, miserable. Georgia State? Probably the most miserable team in college football.

And we’re all supposed to gush over a 3-0 start against this slate?

Beat Iowa, and yeah, it’ll be time to gush away.

One Reason Why Penn State Will Win
Akrum Wadley is a special back working behind a great line, but so far the ground game has been solid, not amazing averaging 180 yards per game.

The pass protection has been there, and the line has come through when absolutely needed, but Penn State has had the defensive front dialed up to a whole other level.

Again, the Nittany Lions have played the equivalent of a bowl of soggy Crunch Berries so far, but they’re No. 1 in the nation in tackles for loss with 34 so far, and they’re crushing it with the pass rush.

Iowa’s offensive line is at a whole other level from what Penn State has faced so far, but the pressure in the backfield should still be there from the start.

One Reason Why Iowa Will Win
Penn State might never have the ball.

As long as the the Hawkeyes can keep the explosive Nittany Lion plays to a bare minimum, they should be able to stay in control of the game by grinding down the clock and going on decent, long marches.

Even with everything Penn State has done right, it’s been awful so far on third downs – Iowa is 11th in the nation in third down defense.

Penn State might hit on big play after big play against bad defenses, but it’s still going to be a problem if it holds on to the ball for just 24 minutes like it’s been doing. Iowa is sixth in the country in time of possession.

There will be times when the Hawkeyes offense will bog down, or will need a big play and won’t be able to get it. But the defense will clean up a whole slew of messes.

What’s Going To Happen
If you want to use the Michigan win last year as a comp, go ahead, but this is a better Iowa team than the one that pulled off the thriller last season.

Penn State will have its moments when Saquon Barkley is Saquon Barkley, but he’ll also be bottled up just enough to make Trace McSorley try to win the game. Three picks from the Iowa secondary and a solid day from the pounding running game later, and the top five in the polls will see a major shakeup.

Penn State vs. Iowa Prediction
Final Score
Iowa 23, Penn State 20

http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/09/penn-state-iowa-prediction-game-preview

38-17 Penn State.

 

[Mixolydian]

Not close after the first quarter in terms of the scoreboard.

Iowa will win TOP but will not be able to stop Penn State on the perimeter and over the top. They will make our O line look flimsy at times and will challenge our run defense significantly.

First Q: 10-3 PSU
Second Q: 17-3 PSU
Third Q: 21-10
Final: 35-13

So we get two safeties in the third quarter?

 

[lionville]

If PSU brings their 'A' game it might be a long evening for the other team. We have not seen it thus far this year. They are due to play well in all facets of the game.

 

[Diego Badman]

I agree that our offense is much different. As long as we don't turn the ball over we should be able to score 30 points. It will be interesting to see if Blacknall has more impact this week.

On defense I think PSU gives up rushing yards because of their approach. Not so many traditional 4-3 alignments. There's usually a LB lined up at the LOS with lots of blitzing. That leaves the middle soft and vulnerable to plenty of 5-6 yard gains. It also gives them a greater opportunity for negative plays. I'm not sure if that's a good trade-off or not.

I'm one of those guys (too much Paterno influence, I guess) who thinks you have to play solid defense.

I think Penn State needs to tackle better. Through three games, I just have not been impressed. Again, that may be the Paterno influence on me.

Iowa is always a physical team, and if Penn State isn't tackling well, the offense may be watching a lot.

 

[MilesBarkley]

Iowa is built around power football on offense and defense. They matched up well vs Penn State teams a few years back and their record against us in that time period shows.
Penn State now will spread you out and use speed on offense. Not the kind of offense Iowa's defense can handle for 4 quarters.

I like PSU over Iowa 27-17

 

[cidsports]

Should Pitt be 0-3? They took OT vs. Youngstown State. The Panthers are not good in 2017.

 

[LafayetteBear]

Maybe. But don't discount

Mike Fiacable (I feel bad for his sister)

LOL. Props. We need someone to track down a photo of her.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Folks, Iowa is not good. If Penn State is a playoff-level team, they will beat Iowa by something like 42-17. I think Penn State is a playoff-level team.