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Is January 17, 2025 The Day?

wrestleknownothing

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Aug 30, 2024
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B1G Day

What happens January 17, 2025 you reasonably ask?

Well Nebraska hosts Penn State for a Big Ten dual. Which means we should get Caleb Smith vs Luke Lilledahl. With their latest rankings drop Intermat has Smith #5 and Lilledahl #11. If Lilledahl wins that match up it is possible that he jumps into Intermat's top 5. But the real significance is that if no one else on PSU looses before then all ten PSU wrestlers will be ranked in the Intermat top five. And with only the Michigan State dual between now and Nebraska, a PSU lose to Sparty seems highly unlikely. Wild.

This is possible because with their respective 3-0 Sunday afternoons, Braeden Davis and Josh Barr moved into the Intermat top 5.

image.png.ef8805cb1849061e0a92ea8c2af6426b.png

Of course there are other landmines in the Nebraska dual that could derail the Top 5 Train. While wrestlestat has it 32-0 for PSU, among Jacob Van Dee, Brock Hardy, Ridge Lovett would anyone be surprised if there was at least one win for the Huskers? Two? Three?

Minnesota 2.0?

Right now PSU sits on 8 expected AAs. This is just shy of the 8.1 expected AAs they had going into the tournament last year.

They also improved their chances of achieving a tie with Minnesota as the only teams with 10 AAs to an absurd 6.65%.

image.thumb.png.7707fb2541a65bbe4ea0adef6587ece0.png

As a reminder, going into the 2007 tournament Minnesota had an expected AA count of just 6.5 with a 0.78% chance of ten.

Screw them odds, Poindexter.

And Merry Christmas everyone.

Christmas Eve Running GIF by MOODMAN
 
It's a nice thought, but Lilledahl isn't jumping 6 guys simply for beating #5. Not even if he teched Smith (which is unlikely). He'd need some help -- meaning several of those guys above him losing, preferably by upset or getting crushed by comparably/higher ranked opponents.

Better chance a month later on 2/14 when Lilledahl beats #6 McCrone, but even then it's not a given.
 
It's a nice thought, but Lilledahl isn't jumping 6 guys simply for beating #5. Not even if he teched Smith (which is unlikely). He'd need some help -- meaning several of those guys above him losing, preferably by upset or getting crushed by comparably/higher ranked opponents.

Better chance a month later on 2/14 when Lilledahl beats #6 McCrone, but even then it's not a given.
Except take a look at Davis. He was #10 last week, beat the #5 by 1-0, and jumped 5 spots to #5.
 
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B1G Day

What happens January 17, 2025 you reasonably ask?

Well Nebraska hosts Penn State for a Big Ten dual. Which means we should get Caleb Smith vs Luke Lilledahl. With their latest rankings drop Intermat has Smith #5 and Lilledahl #11. If Lilledahl wins that match up it is possible that he jumps into Intermat's top 5. But the real significance is that if no one else on PSU looses before then all ten PSU wrestlers will be ranked in the Intermat top five. And with only the Michigan State dual between now and Nebraska, a PSU lose to Sparty seems highly unlikely. Wild.

This is possible because with their respective 3-0 Sunday afternoons, Braeden Davis and Josh Barr moved into the Intermat top 5.

image.png.ef8805cb1849061e0a92ea8c2af6426b.png

Of course there are other landmines in the Nebraska dual that could derail the Top 5 Train. While wrestlestat has it 32-0 for PSU, among Jacob Van Dee, Brock Hardy, Ridge Lovett would anyone be surprised if there was at least one win for the Huskers? Two? Three?

Minnesota 2.0?

Right now PSU sits on 8 expected AAs. This is just shy of the 8.1 expected AAs they had going into the tournament last year.

They also improved their chances of achieving a tie with Minnesota as the only teams with 10 AAs to an absurd 6.65%.

image.thumb.png.7707fb2541a65bbe4ea0adef6587ece0.png

As a reminder, going into the 2007 tournament Minnesota had an expected AA count of just 6.5 with a 0.78% chance of ten.

Screw them odds, Poindexter.

And Merry Christmas everyone.

Christmas Eve Running GIF by MOODMAN
Good stuff as usual.
 
It's a nice thought, but Lilledahl isn't jumping 6 guys simply for beating #5. Not even if he teched Smith (which is unlikely). He'd need some help -- meaning several of those guys above him losing, preferably by upset or getting crushed by comparably/higher ranked opponents.

Better chance a month later on 2/14 when Lilledahl beats #6 McCrone, but even then it's not a given.
I think it could happen. He’d be undefeated still and finally have that elite win along with the historical pedigree that solidifies freshmen in climbing the rankings. He’d jump a few at least, the publications are looking for substantiation and that would be it for them.
 
I think it could happen. He’d be undefeated still and finally have that elite win along with the historical pedigree that solidifies freshmen in climbing the rankings. He’d jump a few at least, the publications are looking for substantiation and that would be it for them.
I think Id rather over achieving much more than than just going chalk with the rankings or expecting more and getting less ie. Davis ranked one and being losing in the blood round. Every one can put our guys outside the top 8 and they all AA is a great feeling, I'd have to assume.
 
Who else lost last week?
Among the guys he leapfrogged?

Tyler Wells did not wrestle.
Tyler Knox did not wrestle.
Nic Bouzakis beat Anthony Noto.
Evan Frost beat Ethan Oakley.
Kai Orine was newly ranked at 133 after being ranked 10 at 141 the prior week. Oh, and he beat Tyler Ferrera.

So, just the guy he beat.

As I said, it is possible. Especially given the precedence of just this week with just this team at just the next weight.
 
I think Id rather over achieving much more than than just going chalk with the rankings or expecting more and getting less ie. Davis ranked one and being losing in the blood round. Every one can put our guys outside the top 8 and they all AA is a great feeling, I'd have to assume.
I can certainly understand that mindset. I love numbers, rankings, and brackets and how they work in individual tournaments. Not as much as wkn most likely, but another reason why I love wrestling so much. But if I were the coach…none of this stuff would be focused on at all.

Fun fact, my dad taught Cael in AP Statistics in high school. I only took a couple classes in college for business and a math endorsement. The numbers involved here are very fascinating and fun to talk about as they evolve/change
 
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No doubt Luke earned the spot, but I have seen enough of McHenry to have been more than happy with him maning the spot this year. I am a little bummed for him being oh so close in his last year. I wanted him as a recruit.

I see an AA there in Kurt and imagine LL after a full year in the room? He is likely getting better by the week as do all PSU true freshman. I won't be surprised by even a couple of losses before bigs.

I suspect there are concerns that Luke won't prove a career 125 so why not have the best go right away?

PS - was it just me or did McHenry not look like a SVN mini me this past weekend, both in person and style?
 
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No doubt Luke earned the spot, but I have seen enough of McHenry to have been more than happy with him maning the spot this year. I am a little bummed for him being oh so close. I wanted him as a recruit.

I see an AA there in Kurt and imagine LL after a full year in the room? He is likely getting better by the week as do all PSU true freshman. I won't be surprised by even a couple of losses before bigs.

I suspect there are concerns that Luke won't prove a career 125 so why not have the best go right away?

PS - was it just me or did McHenry not look like a SVN mini n me this past weekend?
It was not just you
 
The chances for 10 AAs slipped a bit this week with Intermat moving Lilledahl down a slot to #12.

If these Intermat rankings hold PSU has a 5.9% chance of 10 AAs come March.

Caleb Smith dropped a match and dropped two slots to #7 making a Lilledahl win on Jan 17. worth a bit less than it otherwise would have been. Smith does have a chance to redeem himself on Jan. 11 when he wrestles the man who took his #5 slot, Cooper Flynn of Minnesota.

If Smith can knock of Flynn, and Lilledahl can knock off Smith, you could be looking at a lineup of 10 top 5 wrestlers by the morning of January 19.
 
The chances for 10 AAs slipped a bit this week with Intermat moving Lilledahl down a slot to #12.

If these Intermat rankings hold PSU has a 5.9% chance of 10 AAs come March.

Caleb Smith dropped a match and dropped two slots to #7 making a Lilledahl win on Jan 17. worth a bit less than it otherwise would have been. Smith does have a chance to redeem himself on Jan. 11 when he wrestles the man who took his #5 slot, Cooper Flynn of Minnesota.

If Smith can knock of Flynn, and Lilledahl can knock off Smith, you could be looking at a lineup of 10 top 5 wrestlers by the morning of January 19.
Not sure if this is satire but if not, then how does where Intermat has our guys ranked have anything to do with us getting 10 AA's in March?
 
Not sure if this is satire but if not, then how does where Intermat has our guys ranked have anything to do with us getting 10 AA's in March?
Not satire.

I calculate the probability of finishing in the top 8 by seed based on the prior ten years of tournaments (with a bunch of iterations of fitting). Then I assume the current set of rankings are the assumed seeds at any point in time. Summing the 10 probabilities gets you the expected number of AAs (8.03) and multiplying the 10 probabilities gets you the chances of all 10 AAing.

This is the distribution I am using this year.



The two obvious weaknesses are the two obvious assumption:

1. The current ranking will not equal the final seeds. Yep. So I update as the year goes by. For the most part the rankings converge on the seeds with some exceptions (like Starocci getting the 9 seed last year, or Brooks getting the 3 seed in 2023). But it tends to all come out in the wash. For example, last year I calculated 8.1 expected AAs for PSU. They got 8. Not bad. I did worse on others (NC State crapped the bed).

2. PSU will perform to the expected level. This is sometimes true and sometimes false, but more false than true. You can expect a little overperformance for PSU generally. But not always. For example, the field is at 98.7% AA for #1 seeds in the last 10 years, but thanks to Braeden Davis PSU is only at 95.5%.
 
Not satire.

I calculate the probability of finishing in the top 8 by seed based on the prior ten years of tournaments (with a bunch of iterations of fitting). Then I assume the current set of rankings are the assumed seeds at any point in time. Summing the 10 probabilities gets you the expected number of AAs (8.03) and multiplying the 10 probabilities gets you the chances of all 10 AAing.

This is the distribution I am using this year.



The two obvious weaknesses are the two obvious assumption:

1. The current ranking will not equal the final seeds. Yep. So I update as the year goes by. For the most part the rankings converge on the seeds with some exceptions (like Starocci getting the 9 seed last year, or Brooks getting the 3 seed in 2023). But it tends to all come out in the wash. For example, last year I calculated 8.1 expected AAs for PSU. They got 8. Not bad. I did worse on others (NC State crapped the bed).

2. PSU will perform to the expected level. This is sometimes true and sometimes false, but more false than true. You can expect a little overperformance for PSU generally. But not always. For example, the field is at 98.7% AA for #1 seeds in the last 10 years, but thanks to Braeden Davis PSU is only at 95.5%.
Did you take into account Ramos' fall over Spencer, and poor Mrs. Lee's glasses? Some things Iowa you can't calculate!
 
Not satire.

I calculate the probability of finishing in the top 8 by seed based on the prior ten years of tournaments (with a bunch of iterations of fitting). Then I assume the current set of rankings are the assumed seeds at any point in time. Summing the 10 probabilities gets you the expected number of AAs (8.03) and multiplying the 10 probabilities gets you the chances of all 10 AAing.

This is the distribution I am using this year.



The two obvious weaknesses are the two obvious assumption:

1. The current ranking will not equal the final seeds. Yep. So I update as the year goes by. For the most part the rankings converge on the seeds with some exceptions (like Starocci getting the 9 seed last year, or Brooks getting the 3 seed in 2023). But it tends to all come out in the wash. For example, last year I calculated 8.1 expected AAs for PSU. They got 8. Not bad. I did worse on others (NC State crapped the bed).

2. PSU will perform to the expected level. This is sometimes true and sometimes false, but more false than true. You can expect a little overperformance for PSU generally. But not always. For example, the field is at 98.7% AA for #1 seeds in the last 10 years, but thanks to Braeden Davis PSU is only at 95.5%.
I like the odds of all are ranked in top 4.
 
Not satire.

I calculate the probability of finishing in the top 8 by seed based on the prior ten years of tournaments (with a bunch of iterations of fitting). Then I assume the current set of rankings are the assumed seeds at any point in time. Summing the 10 probabilities gets you the expected number of AAs (8.03) and multiplying the 10 probabilities gets you the chances of all 10 AAing.

This is the distribution I am using this year.



The two obvious weaknesses are the two obvious assumption:

1. The current ranking will not equal the final seeds. Yep. So I update as the year goes by. For the most part the rankings converge on the seeds with some exceptions (like Starocci getting the 9 seed last year, or Brooks getting the 3 seed in 2023). But it tends to all come out in the wash. For example, last year I calculated 8.1 expected AAs for PSU. They got 8. Not bad. I did worse on others (NC State crapped the bed).

2. PSU will perform to the expected level. This is sometimes true and sometimes false, but more false than true. You can expect a little overperformance for PSU generally. But not always. For example, the field is at 98.7% AA for #1 seeds in the last 10 years, but thanks to Braeden Davis PSU is only at 95.5%.
You lost me at "assume" lol

No just kiddin bro, you go right ahead and run your numbers.
 
In my book January 31st is the day that could rock the wrestling world.

Unlikely IMO, but certainly possible.

What if the #1 team in the country sweeps #2, 10-0?

If it were to happen I guarantee a chorus of social media discord insisting something needs to be done to protect the integrity of the sport, level the playing field, address the unfairness, what have you....

A CERTAIN individual in particular MIGHT just go BALLISTIC, and literally have his HEAD EXPLODE!!!

That week would be glorious!
Interestingly that CERTAIN individual called out one of his own when they claimed it would be boring to be a PSU fan watching all this dominance. Several others joined the chorus saying they would not mind it at all if it was their team.
 
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You lost me at "assume" lol

No just kiddin bro, you go right ahead and run your numbers.
Any estimate of how many AAs PSU will have 2 months from now is based on assumptions. This whole message board is a pile of assumptions. Gambling exists to express assumptions. People start businesses based on assumptions. You live in a world of assumptions.
 
Any estimate of how many AAs PSU will have 2 months from now is based on assumptions. This whole message board is a pile of assumptions. Gambling exists to express assumptions. People start businesses based on assumptions. You live in a world of assumptions.
Hey. Gambling conversations belong on the Iowa board.
Gambling and the Constitutional right to yell "heeeessss staaaalllllinnnnn" at a HS wrestling match, those conversations are to be held on HR, those are the two areas of their expertise.
 
Any estimate of how many AAs PSU will have 2 months from now is based on assumptions. This whole message board is a pile of assumptions. Gambling exists to express assumptions. People start businesses based on assumptions. You live in a world of assumptions.
Assumptions is the mother of all **** ups
 
The chances for 10 AAs slipped a bit this week with Intermat moving Lilledahl down a slot to #12.

If these Intermat rankings hold PSU has a 5.9% chance of 10 AAs come March.

Caleb Smith dropped a match and dropped two slots to #7 making a Lilledahl win on Jan 17. worth a bit less than it otherwise would have been. Smith does have a chance to redeem himself on Jan. 11 when he wrestles the man who took his #5 slot, Cooper Flynn of Minnesota.

If Smith can knock of Flynn, and Lilledahl can knock off Smith, you could be looking at a lineup of 10 top 5 wrestlers by the morning of January 19
Doesn't that all American thing get settled at the tournament?
 
The chances for 10 AAs slipped a bit this week with Intermat moving Lilledahl down a slot to #12.

If these Intermat rankings hold PSU has a 5.9% chance of 10 AAs come March.

Caleb Smith dropped a match and dropped two slots to #7 making a Lilledahl win on Jan 17. worth a bit less than it otherwise would have been. Smith does have a chance to redeem himself on Jan. 11 when he wrestles the man who took his #5 slot, Cooper Flynn of Minnesota.

If Smith can knock off Flynn, and Lilledahl can knock off Smith, you could be looking at a lineup of 10 top 5 wrestlers by the morning of January 19.
Step one. Check.
 
wrestleknownothing said:
This whole message board is a pile of assumptions


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