From my view, I can honestly say I don't know. There has indeed been a softening, and the ISM manufacturing index has been decreasing (and yes CDW, it is now below 50), but for some customers, we cannot get enough product out of the door.
If stocks keep diving, individuals may become more hesitant to spend. That would not be good.
But alas, the article.
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/01/16/is_us_heading_toward_recession_101956.html
So, yes, as we start 2016, a recession is a real possibility. Add to that the likelihood of three or four Fed rate hikes this year, and the economy's brakes will be on.
What do we do? The standard Keynesian answer is to boost consumer spending by redistributing money from the 1% to the middle class and by more government "stimulus." After all, consumers are two-thirds of all spending. So they need to be stimulated for the economy to grow, right?
Wrong. This would be a huge mistake - as it was in 2010. What really ails the economy right now is a lack of business investment. That's real stimulus. Investment creates consumption by making products to consume, and the income with which to buy them.
Unfortunately, orders for nondefense capital goods, a proxy for business investment, have fallen 11 straight months, averaging a 3.4% year-over-year decline every month in 2015 - a sign of extraordinary weakness.
How can this be after years of record-low interest rates and stock market gains?
Obamanomics has created the most anti-business environment in postwar history. Businesses face a record onslaught of regulation, a world-high 35% tax rate, higher minimum wages, hostile legislators who routinely demonize profits and success, an erratic Fed and growing uncertainty about the U.S.' political future. Why invest?
If stocks keep diving, individuals may become more hesitant to spend. That would not be good.
But alas, the article.
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/01/16/is_us_heading_toward_recession_101956.html
So, yes, as we start 2016, a recession is a real possibility. Add to that the likelihood of three or four Fed rate hikes this year, and the economy's brakes will be on.
What do we do? The standard Keynesian answer is to boost consumer spending by redistributing money from the 1% to the middle class and by more government "stimulus." After all, consumers are two-thirds of all spending. So they need to be stimulated for the economy to grow, right?
Wrong. This would be a huge mistake - as it was in 2010. What really ails the economy right now is a lack of business investment. That's real stimulus. Investment creates consumption by making products to consume, and the income with which to buy them.
Unfortunately, orders for nondefense capital goods, a proxy for business investment, have fallen 11 straight months, averaging a 3.4% year-over-year decline every month in 2015 - a sign of extraordinary weakness.
How can this be after years of record-low interest rates and stock market gains?
Obamanomics has created the most anti-business environment in postwar history. Businesses face a record onslaught of regulation, a world-high 35% tax rate, higher minimum wages, hostile legislators who routinely demonize profits and success, an erratic Fed and growing uncertainty about the U.S.' political future. Why invest?
