Sugar: (1) Clemson vs. (4) Auburn
Rose: (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Wisconsin
Orange: (8) Miami vs. (5) Alabama
Peach: (6) Georgia vs. (10) UCF
Cotton: (7) PSU vs. (12) Washington
Fiesta: (9) USC vs. (11) Ohio State
* - Rankings as I see them after CCG week.
Key notes:
- I'm expecting Auburn and Clemson to win. Regardless of the outcome of those two games, the winners of those two games are in. Additionally, the losers of those two games are largely interchangeable with their winners. For example, if miami wins over Clemson, you could move Miami into the playoff and put Clemson into the Orange. If Georgia wins, you could put Georgia in the playoff and Auburn in the Peach Bowl.
- It's hard not to like Oklahoma to win against TCU. I just don't know with the way that Oklahoma is playing right now, if anyone can stop that offense. If you want chaos though, root for Oklahoma and Wisconsin to lose. That opens a giant can of worms.
- Body language, body language, body language. Up until this past week, I would have liked OSU to defeat Wisconsin. Not so anymore. Urban's body language on Saturday worries me. That's not a coach with a killer instinct or a passion right now (blaming a cameraman???). Conversely, I think Wisconsin is peaking at exactly the right time. They also let one slip away last year, so I think they know they've got to close the deal this year. Give me the Badgers.
- This one will excite most people here. With the Alabama loss last week, Ohio State was effectively eliminated from the Playoff. How? With two spots taken up already by the ACC and SEC champions, there are only two spots open. Alabama, with only one loss, will be ranked ahead of OSU (and really any 2-loss team not named Auburn) no matter what. So, if OSU beats Wisconsin, Alabama will go as the 4th team, assuming Oklahoma also wins. If Oklahoma also loses, then I would expect TCU to go. The teams in contention for the 4th berth at that point, assuming Alabama as the 3rd berth after ACC/SEC, would be OSU, TCU, Oklahoma, and maybe USC (don't think so). The Oklahoma head-to-head win would likely knock out OSU, and then I think it becomes a decision between Oklahoma and TCU. Tough call. Oklahoma has an additional better win on the road at OSU, but TCU would have the title of champion despite the two teams splitting the regular season. Bottom line: as much as other outlets want to tell you OSU has a chance, there is no viable path. OSU is done-zo. TCU on the other hand, is not.
- Also, to reiterate from some earlier conversation, the odds of PSU landing in the Orange bowl are between slim and none. It would require Wisconsin to win, for Oklahoma to lose, and for Georgia to win. Then Auburn would need to be ranked behind PSU. This is the only path for Penn State to the Orange Bowl. All others would result in another Big Ten (Wisconsin or Ohio State) or SEC team (Alabama or Georgia) being ranked higher but not in the playoff. It would also require considerable upsets in the 3 biggest games this week.
- From last week, I also think SEC CCG loser vs. UCF is looking more probable than ever. The Peach has made their preference for an SEC team known. And particularly Georgia in the Peach means they can sell all the tickets to the game since the Georgia fans won't need to travel.
- PSU will not play USC again. The committee just WILL NOT assign that game.
- I like 10-2 Washington to get the nod over 10-3 TCU and over 9-3 Notre Dame (or even potentially a 10-3 USC). I just think that's the way the cookie is going to crumble if/when TCU loses again to Oklahoma.
- I'd be happy to discuss any other iterations throughout the evening.
Rose: (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Wisconsin
Orange: (8) Miami vs. (5) Alabama
Peach: (6) Georgia vs. (10) UCF
Cotton: (7) PSU vs. (12) Washington
Fiesta: (9) USC vs. (11) Ohio State
* - Rankings as I see them after CCG week.
Key notes:
- I'm expecting Auburn and Clemson to win. Regardless of the outcome of those two games, the winners of those two games are in. Additionally, the losers of those two games are largely interchangeable with their winners. For example, if miami wins over Clemson, you could move Miami into the playoff and put Clemson into the Orange. If Georgia wins, you could put Georgia in the playoff and Auburn in the Peach Bowl.
- It's hard not to like Oklahoma to win against TCU. I just don't know with the way that Oklahoma is playing right now, if anyone can stop that offense. If you want chaos though, root for Oklahoma and Wisconsin to lose. That opens a giant can of worms.
- Body language, body language, body language. Up until this past week, I would have liked OSU to defeat Wisconsin. Not so anymore. Urban's body language on Saturday worries me. That's not a coach with a killer instinct or a passion right now (blaming a cameraman???). Conversely, I think Wisconsin is peaking at exactly the right time. They also let one slip away last year, so I think they know they've got to close the deal this year. Give me the Badgers.
- This one will excite most people here. With the Alabama loss last week, Ohio State was effectively eliminated from the Playoff. How? With two spots taken up already by the ACC and SEC champions, there are only two spots open. Alabama, with only one loss, will be ranked ahead of OSU (and really any 2-loss team not named Auburn) no matter what. So, if OSU beats Wisconsin, Alabama will go as the 4th team, assuming Oklahoma also wins. If Oklahoma also loses, then I would expect TCU to go. The teams in contention for the 4th berth at that point, assuming Alabama as the 3rd berth after ACC/SEC, would be OSU, TCU, Oklahoma, and maybe USC (don't think so). The Oklahoma head-to-head win would likely knock out OSU, and then I think it becomes a decision between Oklahoma and TCU. Tough call. Oklahoma has an additional better win on the road at OSU, but TCU would have the title of champion despite the two teams splitting the regular season. Bottom line: as much as other outlets want to tell you OSU has a chance, there is no viable path. OSU is done-zo. TCU on the other hand, is not.
- Also, to reiterate from some earlier conversation, the odds of PSU landing in the Orange bowl are between slim and none. It would require Wisconsin to win, for Oklahoma to lose, and for Georgia to win. Then Auburn would need to be ranked behind PSU. This is the only path for Penn State to the Orange Bowl. All others would result in another Big Ten (Wisconsin or Ohio State) or SEC team (Alabama or Georgia) being ranked higher but not in the playoff. It would also require considerable upsets in the 3 biggest games this week.
- From last week, I also think SEC CCG loser vs. UCF is looking more probable than ever. The Peach has made their preference for an SEC team known. And particularly Georgia in the Peach means they can sell all the tickets to the game since the Georgia fans won't need to travel.
- PSU will not play USC again. The committee just WILL NOT assign that game.
- I like 10-2 Washington to get the nod over 10-3 TCU and over 9-3 Notre Dame (or even potentially a 10-3 USC). I just think that's the way the cookie is going to crumble if/when TCU loses again to Oklahoma.
- I'd be happy to discuss any other iterations throughout the evening.
