Continuing from last week, here are my updated bowl projections. A few key assumptions:
- I don't like Notre Dame at Stanford at all. Tough to win on the road. Even tougher when it's 2,000 miles and few time zone changes away.
- Auburn over Alabama (and Georgia). If the game were in Tuscaloosa, I'd like the Tide any day. But in Jordan Hare with a banged up Alabama defense and an Auburn offense peaking at the right time, give me the Tigers.
- Clemson over Miami. Until I see something from the Canes that tells me they can put it together on the road, I have to keep with the more experienced team in Clemson.
- OSU over Wisconsin. Could it go either way? Sure. Do I think Wisconsin has the speed or athletes to keep up? Absolutely not. If Ohio State gets up early, Wisconsin has zero ability to play come back ball.
- Washington to beat Washington State (game is at home for Washington). UW finishes 10-2, loses tiebreaker to Stanford. Stanford loses to USC in Pac12 Champ game.
- Oklahoma wins Big12 over TCU.
Without further adieu:
Sugar: (1) Clemson (ACC Champ) vs. (4) Alabama (SEC At-Large)
Rose: (2) Oklahoma (Big12 Champ) vs. (3) Auburn (SEC Champ)
Orange: (5) Miami (ACC At-Large) vs. (6) Ohio State (Big Ten Champ)
Peach: (9) Georgia (SEC At-Large) vs. (11) UCF (Group of 5 Rep)
Cotton: (7) Penn State (Big Ten At-Large) vs. (12) Washington (Pac12 At-Large)
Fiesta: (8) Wisconsin (Big Ten At-Large) vs. (9) USC (Pac12 Champ)
A few notes:
- Given the choice between 2-loss Ohio State, 1-loss Alabama, and 1-loss Miami, I'm expecting the committee to go with 1-loss Alabama. Probably the only team with enough cache to keep Ohio State out is Alabama (if the stars aligned, I'd give Clemson that status too).
- Orange bowl has auto-selections of ACC #2 Miami and Ohio State as the highest ranked Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame team.
- I've come around on Group of 5 assignment. It's tough to tell whether the committee favors fairness to bowl games (i.e. don's put the group of 5 team in the same game every year) or geographic proximity for the bowl teams not in the Big Ten (nowhere near any bowl site). Previously I favored the rotation of bowl games for the G5 team. I am shifting to a geographic proximity model. Thus, I expect UCF to end up in the Peach Bowl against Georgia rather than at the Fiesta (most time since hosting a G5 team).
- Cotton and Fiesta become pretty easy to slot. They'll keep USC closest to home as a conference champ, and they won't make them play PSU (played them last year) or Washington (same conference).
- Penn State as #7 is based on a theory that they are tethering PSU to OSU. So far the committee has ranked PSU just behind OSU in each of the rankings. The thought being that the game was effectively played to a tie after taking home field advantage into consideration. I expect the trend of considering PSU and OSU equal to continue. That ranking is irrelevant though.
- I like Washington at 10-2 to get in over 3-loss teams Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Mississippi State.
- If Notre Dame beats Stanford, I'd expect them in the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.
- I don't like Notre Dame at Stanford at all. Tough to win on the road. Even tougher when it's 2,000 miles and few time zone changes away.
- Auburn over Alabama (and Georgia). If the game were in Tuscaloosa, I'd like the Tide any day. But in Jordan Hare with a banged up Alabama defense and an Auburn offense peaking at the right time, give me the Tigers.
- Clemson over Miami. Until I see something from the Canes that tells me they can put it together on the road, I have to keep with the more experienced team in Clemson.
- OSU over Wisconsin. Could it go either way? Sure. Do I think Wisconsin has the speed or athletes to keep up? Absolutely not. If Ohio State gets up early, Wisconsin has zero ability to play come back ball.
- Washington to beat Washington State (game is at home for Washington). UW finishes 10-2, loses tiebreaker to Stanford. Stanford loses to USC in Pac12 Champ game.
- Oklahoma wins Big12 over TCU.
Without further adieu:
Sugar: (1) Clemson (ACC Champ) vs. (4) Alabama (SEC At-Large)
Rose: (2) Oklahoma (Big12 Champ) vs. (3) Auburn (SEC Champ)
Orange: (5) Miami (ACC At-Large) vs. (6) Ohio State (Big Ten Champ)
Peach: (9) Georgia (SEC At-Large) vs. (11) UCF (Group of 5 Rep)
Cotton: (7) Penn State (Big Ten At-Large) vs. (12) Washington (Pac12 At-Large)
Fiesta: (8) Wisconsin (Big Ten At-Large) vs. (9) USC (Pac12 Champ)
A few notes:
- Given the choice between 2-loss Ohio State, 1-loss Alabama, and 1-loss Miami, I'm expecting the committee to go with 1-loss Alabama. Probably the only team with enough cache to keep Ohio State out is Alabama (if the stars aligned, I'd give Clemson that status too).
- Orange bowl has auto-selections of ACC #2 Miami and Ohio State as the highest ranked Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame team.
- I've come around on Group of 5 assignment. It's tough to tell whether the committee favors fairness to bowl games (i.e. don's put the group of 5 team in the same game every year) or geographic proximity for the bowl teams not in the Big Ten (nowhere near any bowl site). Previously I favored the rotation of bowl games for the G5 team. I am shifting to a geographic proximity model. Thus, I expect UCF to end up in the Peach Bowl against Georgia rather than at the Fiesta (most time since hosting a G5 team).
- Cotton and Fiesta become pretty easy to slot. They'll keep USC closest to home as a conference champ, and they won't make them play PSU (played them last year) or Washington (same conference).
- Penn State as #7 is based on a theory that they are tethering PSU to OSU. So far the committee has ranked PSU just behind OSU in each of the rankings. The thought being that the game was effectively played to a tie after taking home field advantage into consideration. I expect the trend of considering PSU and OSU equal to continue. That ranking is irrelevant though.
- I like Washington at 10-2 to get in over 3-loss teams Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Mississippi State.
- If Notre Dame beats Stanford, I'd expect them in the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.
