First a disclaimer
.IMO our 12 CFP rank is way too high
. I still expect 1 more loss and would be thrilled at 9-3.
. after scUm game i wasn't sure we would reach 6 wins
However just for grins look at this
Rank
A&M- gets beat late by LSU [might require double digit loss]
Washington - loses to USC or Wash St. -PAC 12 is so weak 1 loss knocks them out
tOSU - gets beat by 2 scores vs Mich. late decisive loss knocks them out
Louisville - gets upset by Kentucky or Houston 2 loses weak schedule out
Wisconsin - loses to Mich again in championship game 3 loses they're gone
Auburn gets beat late by Alabama, 3 losses they're gone
Nebraska - loses to tOSU. they drop below us and never make it back
Florida - loses decisively to Alabama in SEC title game - late big loss = out
Penn State -wins out 8 straight wins. Could only be jumped by an LSU team that beats Alabama
LSU - Loses to Alabama
Of everything I listed except maybe us winning out I think only a Louisville loss or maybe A&M loss would be a big surprise.
Now that would be scary.
.IMO our 12 CFP rank is way too high
. I still expect 1 more loss and would be thrilled at 9-3.
. after scUm game i wasn't sure we would reach 6 wins
However just for grins look at this
Rank
A&M- gets beat late by LSU [might require double digit loss]
Washington - loses to USC or Wash St. -PAC 12 is so weak 1 loss knocks them out
tOSU - gets beat by 2 scores vs Mich. late decisive loss knocks them out
Louisville - gets upset by Kentucky or Houston 2 loses weak schedule out
Wisconsin - loses to Mich again in championship game 3 loses they're gone
Auburn gets beat late by Alabama, 3 losses they're gone
Nebraska - loses to tOSU. they drop below us and never make it back
Florida - loses decisively to Alabama in SEC title game - late big loss = out
Penn State -wins out 8 straight wins. Could only be jumped by an LSU team that beats Alabama
LSU - Loses to Alabama
Of everything I listed except maybe us winning out I think only a Louisville loss or maybe A&M loss would be a big surprise.
Now that would be scary.