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LionJim; here's a CNBC look at the oil price crash

The Spin Meister

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Nov 27, 2012
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An altered state
The article linked discusses some of the financial ramifications as oil and gas companies go bankrupt, banks/investors suffer losses, stockholders loss value;


Oil and gas companies borrowed heavily when oil prices were soaring above $70 a barrel. But in the past 24 months, they've seen their values and cash flows erode ferociously as oil prices plunge — and that's made it hard for some to pay back that debt.

This could lead to a massive credit crunch like the one we saw in 2008. With our economy just getting back on its feet from the global 2008 financial crisis, timing could not be worse, especially in an election year. It makes you wonder: How could this happen again? Quite easily, as it turns out.


There are more issues that the article doesn't cover. In the major drilling areas of W Pa and NE Pa, restaurants and hotels are reporting a 35% drop in business. Tax revenue is down. Job losses in the US could total a couple hundred thousand. Many of these workers bought houses and may lose them. And its not just oil field workers as law firms are laying off or closing offices, steel plants/pipe mills shut down, trucking companies, suppliers of sand, heavy equipment, tools, uniforms, and more are all laying off people.

Internationally, governments that rely on oil revenues are in danger of collapse. Venezuela, Iraq, Nigeria, Liberia, Libya and others all all hurting as are North Sea/Scandinavian countries(although these aren't in danger of collapse).

And with other issues like massive global debt it could spell serious trouble. For a scary look, read this CNBC article. which predicts a major recession worse than the 2008 one we just had.

Not sayin' its gonna happen, just pointing out the possibilities. The problem is that the price of oil/nat gas fell too fast for the industry to make adjustments. Enjoy the $2 gas but keep an eye open to future srtresses.
 
there was NO worry when they were charging $140/bbl.
I can't feel sorry for big oil. I feel bad for the people losing their jobs. Maybe the CEO who's gonna take home about $30 mill can kick some back.
 
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there was NO worry when they were charging $140/bbl.
I can't feel sorry for big oil. I feel bad for the people losing their jobs. Maybe the CEO who's gonna take home about $30 mill can kick some back.
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Has nothing to do with worrying about big oil. Its about what could happen to the entire financial system and how that would affect us all.
 
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Thanks, man. Kinda what I was looking for. I guess this is the short-term pain people spoke of.
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All week CNBC has been talking about the stresses in the high yield market....meaning junk bonds. Seems a lot of investors were looking for higher yield than the paltry yields on 1% bonds and invested in riskier oil ventures that were paying 6-7%.

And late in the week several big banks were disclosing their oil portfolio holdings so as to calm stock holders. JP Morgan said close to billion in loans are in arrears with a total of 17-20 billions in investments ( I think, IIRC) JP said their exposure i a small part of their overall portfolio. Other major banks were also saying 'nothing to worry about here.'

It was the sudden drop in oil prices that sparked the savings and loan crisis in the '80s. Don't know if it will happen again but as we saw in the 2008 credit collapse, a lot of these hedge and derivative funds are all so cross leveraged that no one knows the true exposure.
 
Maybe the CEO who's gonna take home about $30 mill can kick some back.

I'm pretty sure these guys won't be getting bonuses this year. Also, a lot of their compensation is in company stock which has tanked. Their options are also out of the money.
 
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All week CNBC has been talking about the stresses in the high yield market....meaning junk bonds. Seems a lot of investors were looking for higher yield than the paltry yields on 1% bonds and invested in riskier oil ventures that were paying 6-7%.

And late in the week several big banks were disclosing their oil portfolio holdings so as to calm stock holders. JP Morgan said close to billion in loans are in arrears with a total of 17-20 billions in investments ( I think, IIRC) JP said their exposure i a small part of their overall portfolio. Other major banks were also saying 'nothing to worry about here.'

It was the sudden drop in oil prices that sparked the savings and loan crisis in the '80s. Don't know if it will happen again but as we saw in the 2008 credit collapse, a lot of these hedge and derivative funds are all so cross leveraged that no one knows the true exposure.
... And were those oil stocks bought with pretty much free money on margin?
 
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