Lions vs Hawks -- NCAA Tournament

[AgSurfer]

Here's an interesting question that might shed some light on the apparent superiority of Cael's preparation for the NCAA tournament. In head to head match ups, what is the PSU vs Iowa record at the national tournament since Cael has been head coach? If my memory serves me correctly, I believe it has been pretty lopsided in favor of Penn State, but maybe some of you wrestling stat gurus can provide a more precise answer.

 

[jrod65]

17 wins for PSU. 8 for Iowa. The higher seed won in all but 5 matches:

2014:
5 seed Brown over 4 seed Evans(split wins that year)

2018:
5 seed Stoll over 3 seed Nevills

2021:
Starocci 3 seed over Kemerer
Lee 2 seed over Eierman
12 seed Berge over 5 seed Young.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

I'm thinking the lopsided nature tends to be more of a peak issue, PSU has performed best at the NCAA tournament but not always as well at the BIG tournament. Iowa has wrestled at a high level at both, but probably peaked at the BIG rather than NCAA tournament. Both are first world problems.

 

[js8793]

17 wins for PSU. 7 for Iowa. The higher seed won in all but 5 matches:

2014:
5 seed Brown over 4 seed Evans(split wins that year)

2018:
5 seed Stoll over 3 seed Nevills

2021:
Starocci 3 seed, Lee 2 seed and 12 seed Berge over 5 seed Young.

in fairness, it was a lot to ask of kaleb young to beat that 3 man tag team

 

[nerfstate]

in fairness, it was a lot to ask of kaleb young to beat that 3 man tag team

I figured Jrod just couldn’t bear repeating who it was those first 2 beat.

It was Eierman and Kemerer.

 

[jrod65]

in fairness, it was a lot to ask of kaleb young to beat that 3 man tag team

Whoops. Forgot to proofread....

 

[jrod65]

I figured Jrod just couldn’t bear repeating who it was those first 2 beat.

It was Eierman and Kemerer.

Well, I certainly wasn't ecstatic with the Hawks losing both.

Going in, I saw Eierman/Lee as a toss-up. While I was disappointed that he lost, I was mentally prepared for that outcome.

Kemerer was a different story. I really felt that he was the better wrestler last year. So his loss stung much more.

 

[tullfan68]

so when is iowa gonna wrestle there starters,the big tourney??

 

[js8793]

Well, I certainly wasn't ecstatic with the Hawks losing both.

Going in, I saw Eierman/Lee as a toss-up. While I was disappointed that he lost, I was mentally prepared for that outcome.

Kemerer was a different story. I really felt that he was the better wrestler last year. So his loss stung much more.

same here. i expected lee to win because eierman won the last one. also didn't sting that bad because Lee is an indiana kid who i followed through his high school career. last year, i felt starocci was good enough to beat him, but only if kem wrestled poorly. i think last year kem wins 8/10. with another year of progression, i view that as a true toss up, probably lean starocci if i'm really being honest. he just keeps getting better.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

Iowa has had some under achievement in the NCAA tournament, but some of that can be chalked up to bad luck. Bull has lost to the eventual champion three times I believe. Kem has had injuries plus Nolf in his way, a tournament canned when he was wrestling really well, and a nail biter against an emerging giant in C*. ADS is who he is. Bonus point machine who will place somewhere in the top half but probably never a title. Warner is solid but not going to ever win a title. Big Cass imo would win 285 most of the years I have watched wrestling and is a joy to watch compete. Young is another guy who works hard and scores points for his team, but isn't an elite talent imo. I love hating Iowa, but these guys individually are really hard to dislike. I think it is ok to say Iowa is a loaded team and the favorites at this point, but PSU is getting very close. Nicky or no Nicky at 125 for Michigan does nothing to help me see anything but a two horse come March. Two very good teams and somebody has to lose.

 

[SWPA]

 

[js8793]

Iowa has had some under achievement in the NCAA tournament, but some of that can be chalked up to bad luck. Bull has lost to the eventual champion three times I believe. Kem has had injuries plus Nolf in his way, a tournament canned when he was wrestling really well, and a nail biter against an emerging giant in C*. ADS is who he is. Bonus point machine who will place somewhere in the top half but probably never a title. Warner is solid but not going to ever win a title. Big Cass imo would win 285 most of the years I have watched wrestling and is a joy to watch compete. Young is another guy who works hard and scores points for his team, but isn't an elite talent imo. I love hating Iowa, but these guys individually are really hard to dislike. I think it is ok to say Iowa is a loaded team and the favorites at this point, but PSU is getting very close. Nicky or no Nicky at 125 for Michigan does nothing to help me see anything but a two horse come March. Two very good teams and somebody has to lose.

this is a good post. there's some holdover sentiment from the previous iowa teams that actually underachieved. when people talk about this team underachieving, it's elite iowa guys losing toss up matches to other elite wrestlers. we aren't talking nick moore, mike evans, and ethen lofthouse losing to unseeded guys and not even making the r12 as top 5 seeds to name a few examples.

 

[82bordeaux]

i think last year kem wins 8/10. with another year of progression, i view that as a true toss up, probably lean starocci if i'm really being honest. he just keeps getting better.

 

[ZepGraffiti]

Iowa has had some under achievement in the NCAA tournament, but some of that can be chalked up to bad luck. Bull has lost to the eventual champion three times I believe. Kem has had injuries plus Nolf in his way, a tournament canned when he was wrestling really well, and a nail biter against an emerging giant in C*. ADS is who he is. Bonus point machine who will place somewhere in the top half but probably never a title. Warner is solid but not going to ever win a title. Big Cass imo would win 285 most of the years I have watched wrestling and is a joy to watch compete. Young is another guy who works hard and scores points for his team, but isn't an elite talent imo. I love hating Iowa, but these guys individually are really hard to dislike. I think it is ok to say Iowa is a loaded team and the favorites at this point, but PSU is getting very close. Nicky or no Nicky at 125 for Michigan does nothing to help me see anything but a two horse come March. Two very good teams and somebody has to lose.

Has Spencer approved this message?

 

[RoarLions1]

I'd like to see an analysis comparing the delta's (actual NCAA finish vs their seed) for PSU guys vs Iowa guys. For several years, Iowa didn't have the horses, but that doesn't mean their team underachieved. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't.

An analysis I did years ago comparing Cael wrestlers vs Gable wrestlers showed Gable slightly better in "coaching up" his guys, meaning on average they outperformed their seed more so than the PSU guys. It was close though, and there are some traps in an analysis like that (one example: a No. 1 seed really can't do any better than their seed).

 

[pointingdogsrule]

Don't you guys know anything. It's because Cael recruits better... not because he coaches them up!!!!!

 

[jrod65]

I'd like to see an analysis comparing the delta's (actual NCAA finish vs their seed) for PSU guys vs Iowa guys. For several years, Iowa didn't have the horses, but that doesn't mean their team underachieved. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't.

An analysis I did years ago comparing Cael wrestlers vs Gable wrestlers showed Gable slightly better in "coaching up" his guys, meaning on average they outperformed their seed more so than the PSU guys. It was close though, and there are some traps in an analysis like that (one example: a No. 1 seed really can't do any better than their seed).

Roar,

Got a bunch of data for you to use as you see fit.

*disclaimer- I don't claim 100% accuracy, but believe these numbers should be very close to correct.

2010-2021 qualifiers(not counting 2020):
Iowa 102, PSU 95

AA's:
Iowa 65, PSU 64

Wrestlers placing above seed(I used anyone that was 9-33 as unseeded for these results):
Iowa 31, PSU 29

Wrestlers placing below seed:
Iowa 28, PSU 18

Wrestlers seeded 1-8 finishing at seed:
Iowa 15, PSU 23

Wrestlers seeded 9-33 finishes:
Iowa 6 AA's and 28 no placement
PSU 7 AA's and 25 no placement

Some percentages:

Iowa PSU
AA- 63.7% 67.4%
Above seed- 30.4% 30.5%
Below seed - 27.5% 18.9%
At seed(1-8) - 14.7% 24.2%
At seed(9-33) - 27.5% 26.3%

Other things of note.

PSU:
Had 16 #1 seeds. 13 were champs. The other 3 were 2nd.

Had 14 champs that were not the #1 seed, Q. Wright being the lowest to win from the 9 seed.

Had the least amount of wrestlers with the 4 and 7 seeds(2 each).

Iowa:

Had 7 #1 seeds, 4 of those were last year. Only 2 of the 7 were champs.

Had 8 champs that were not the #1 seed.

Biggest overperformance was Grambrall placing 3rd from the 12 spot.

*also of note

Each team had wrestlers seeded 1-8 that DNP, injury defaults/med ff included:

PSU had 6 coming from the 2,3,5,6(x2)and 8 seeds.

Iowa had 10 from the 1,3,5(x4),6(x2), and 7(x2) seeds.

 

[AgSurfer]

This is a really interesting discussion, and with minimal trash talk! One thing is so definitely clear -- Iowa vs PSU is a great rivalry. If the Big 10 had some real creativity, they would really pump up the volume and arrange to have the dual held every year on neutral venue where they can maximize the seating. I could see ESPN wanting the broadcast rights for that one too. Everyone would come out a winner one way or another.

 

[dunkej01]

Roar,

Got a bunch of data for you to use as you see fit.

*disclaimer- I don't claim 100% accuracy, but believe these numbers should be very close to correct.

2010-2021 qualifiers(not counting 2020):
Iowa 102, PSU 95

AA's:
Iowa 65, PSU 64

Wrestlers placing above seed(I used anyone that was 9-33 as unseeded for these results):
Iowa 31, PSU 29

Wrestlers placing below seed:
Iowa 28, PSU 18

Wrestlers seeded 1-8 finishing at seed:
Iowa 15, PSU 23

Wrestlers seeded 9-33 finishes:
Iowa 6 AA's and 28 no placement
PSU 7 AA's and 25 no placement

Some percentages:

Iowa PSU
AA- 63.7% 67.4%
Above seed- 30.4% 30.5%
Below seed - 27.5% 18.9%
At seed(1-8) - 14.7% 24.2%
At seed(9-33) - 27.5% 26.3%

Other things of note.

PSU:
Had 16 #1 seeds. 13 were champs. The other 3 were 2nd.

Had 14 champs that were not the #1 seed, Q. Wright being the lowest to win from the 9 seed.

Had the least amount of wrestlers with the 4 and 7 seeds(2 each).

Iowa:

Had 7 #1 seeds, 4 of those were last year. Only 2 of the 7 were champs.

Had 8 champs that were not the #1 seed.

Biggest overperformance was Grambrall placing 3rd from the 12 spot.

*also of note

Each team had wrestlers seeded 1-8 that DNP, injury defaults/med ff included:

PSU had 6 coming from the 2,3,5,6(x2)and 8 seeds.

Iowa had 10 from the 1,3,5(x4),6(x2), and 7(x2) seeds.

Thanks for pulling this together

 

[nitlion6]

This is a really interesting discussion, and with minimal trash talk! One thing is so definitely clear -- Iowa vs PSU is a great rivalry. If the Big 10 had some real creativity, they would really pump up the volume and arrange to have the dual held every year on neutral venue where they can maximize the seating. I could see ESPN wanting the broadcast rights for that one too. Everyone would come out a winner one way or another.

The only way Brands is wrestling his guys against Cael's guys on an annual basis is if the Big10 mandates it.
For a corner that likes to scream at other coaching corners that "you don't like tough wrestling", the Iowa corner leaves the black at home and dons pure yellow when Cael offers off year meets and some good old fashion tough wrestling.

 

[HawkFan1986]

The only way Brands is wrestling his guys against Cael's guys on an annual basis is if the Big10 mandates it.
For a corner that likes to scream at other coaching corners that "you don't like tough wrestling", the Iowa corner leaves the black at home and dons pure yellow when Cael offers off year meets and some good old fashion tough wrestling.

I believe he yelled that at a ref that was a little quick to stop a bar arm, but carry on with the Iowa bashing. You guys must chuckle every time someone takes a crack at the ole U of I, cuz that sure happens a lot. Practically every thread here devolves into a why Iowa sucks convo. Some of you guys need a new horse to ride.

 

[jrod65]

Thanks for pulling this together

Honestly, I liked doing the research. Over/underperforming at NCAA's is something that I have looked into before, but never really a deep dive. I find myself digging into the results of previous NCAA brackets way too often anyway, so at least this time there was a reason for it.

I know that I put it in my previous post, but I do warn people that there could be a few errors in the numbers. For some reason(mostly just because I'm a bit weird) whenever I am researching wrestling info, I insist on doing everything with pen and paper.

 

[slushhead]

I believe he yelled that at a ref that was a little quick to stop a bar arm, but carry on with the Iowa bashing. You guys must chuckle every time someone takes a crack at the ole U of I, cuz that sure happens a lot. Practically every thread here devolves into a why Iowa sucks convo. Some of you guys need a new horse to ride.

You don’t like tough bashing!!

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

I believe he yelled that at a ref that was a little quick to stop a bar arm, but carry on with the Iowa bashing. You guys must chuckle every time someone takes a crack at the ole U of I, cuz that sure happens a lot. Practically every thread here devolves into a why Iowa sucks convo. Some of you guys need a new horse to ride.

Jeez, I thought thats what rivals do. There are plenty of other forums, maybe if you look around you will find one where everyone is on the same page.

 

[NittanyChris]

I believe he yelled that at a ref that was a little quick to stop a bar arm, but carry on with the Iowa bashing. You guys must chuckle every time someone takes a crack at the ole U of I, cuz that sure happens a lot. Practically every thread here devolves into a why Iowa sucks convo. Some of you guys need a new horse to ride.

You should take it as a compliment. Despite winning only one title in the past decade we still consider Iowa our main rival.

You’ll have to improve your success rate though if you want to remain in the #2 slot. Ohio State and Oklahoma State are nipping at your heels.

 

[PAgeologist]

I'd like to see an analysis comparing the delta's (actual NCAA finish vs their seed) for PSU guys vs Iowa guys. For several years, Iowa didn't have the horses, but that doesn't mean their team underachieved. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't.

An analysis I did years ago comparing Cael wrestlers vs Gable wrestlers showed Gable slightly better in "coaching up" his guys, meaning on average they outperformed their seed more so than the PSU guys. It was close though, and there are some traps in an analysis like that (one example: a No. 1 seed really can't do any better than their seed).

Maybe it's just me, but I always thought the true greatness of Cael was allowing the wrestlers to develop and wrestle their own style. And pushing for bonus points, not settling for the decision win.

I'm not putting down his ability to develop and advance wrestlers, but there are plenty of coaches that can do that.

 

[ZepGraffiti]

I believe he yelled that at a ref that was a little quick to stop a bar arm, but carry on with the Iowa bashing. You guys must chuckle every time someone takes a crack at the ole U of I, cuz that sure happens a lot. Practically every thread here devolves into a why Iowa sucks convo. Some of you guys need a new horse to ride.

I thought it was part of the UM coaches are politicians tizzy?

 

[nitlion6]

I believe he yelled that at a ref that was a little quick to stop a bar arm, but carry on with the Iowa bashing. You guys must chuckle every time someone takes a crack at the ole U of I, cuz that sure happens a lot. Practically every thread here devolves into a why Iowa sucks convo. Some of you guys need a new horse to ride.

Glad to see you agreed with the entire Brands is afraid of wrestling tough Penn State teams.

 

[HawkFan1986]

Glad to see you agreed with the entire Brands is afraid of wrestling tough Penn State teams.

Huh? Just because I didn’t comment on something doesn’t imply that I agree with it. Idk why Iowa and Psu don’t wrestle every year. I’m assuming it’s because they only schedule 8 big ten dual meets a year and there are 14 teams. I know math is hard but that’s not great odds. Could be that. Iowa also has non breakable commitments with teams that have been rivals for more than 11 years. Could be that.

I’m fully aware of the narrative that Iowa owes Cael a home mat ass whopping, but if he didn’t wanna wrestle us at National duals maybe he doesn’t wanna wrestle us in blue and white country. Maybe the reason Iowa doesn’t wrestle the kitty cats every year isn’t all Iowa’s fault? Could be that too. Just speculation, of course.

And yes, I did take a fair amount of shots in this post and I expect a few fired back. It’s all in good fun. Stay healthy and we’ll see ya in January.