Major flaws in pundit predictions.

[Howie'81]

Some of the analyses out there of this game are terribly flawed.

I know some of you like Phil Steele. Well, last night I heard him give a 5 minute analysis favoring Ohio State without a single mention of Saquon Barkley. Not one comment that the leading Heisman candidate is playing in the game.

And these guys should be considered credible?

C'mon now!

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Some of the analyses out there of this game are terribly flawed.

I know some of you like Phil Steele. Well, last night I heard him give a 5 minute analysis favoring Ohio State without a single mention of Saquon Barkley. Not one comment that the leading Heisman candidate is playing in the game.

And these guys should be considered credible?

C'mon now!

I don't understand why people pick one interview, play the victim, and act like some people don't know anything like Phil Steele. Let's put it like this...you and Phil Steel go head to head talking about every roster in the country, their schedule, and staff's....who wins that trivia challenge? I'll bet the house on Phil. Now, if it is just PSU and PSU alone...I like your chances, but the man and a few others do have a decent understanding of college football overall. It's not as if he doesn't know who Barkley is. Not everyone is picking PSU on the road....yet that makes them dumb? Really? PSU has won...what 1 time there since joining the Big Ten. Everyone gets so crazy of these guesses like they matter. They don't. It doens't make him dumb or lacking knowledge. Home team favorites are the easy pick in college football and that is nothing new. They are a 6-7 point favorite at home against a team they tend to dominate there.

Saying Phil Steele isn't credible about college ball isn't credible in itself. Is he wrong sometimes...sure. Picking the home team here is the safer pick...like it or not.

 

[NittanyChris]

The McSorley TD at the end of the first half vs scUM showed the true power of having Barkley on the field. His misdirection drew no less than FOUR defenders to the other side of the field to clear a huge lane for Trace to score the easy TD.
Barkley can finish the game with 35 rushing yards and still have a huge impact on the outcome.

 

[Madsol]

I don't understand why people pick one interview, play the victim, and act like some people don't know anything like Phil Steele. Let's put it like this...you and Phil Steel go head to head talking about every roster in the country, their schedule, and staff's....who wins that trivia challenge? I'll bet the house on Phil. Now, if it is just PSU and PSU alone...I like your chances, but the man and a few others do have a decent understanding of college football overall. It's not as if he doesn't know who Barkley is. Not everyone is picking PSU on the road....yet that makes them dumb? Really? PSU has won...what 1 time there since joining the Big Ten. Everyone gets so crazy of these guesses like they matter. They don't. It doens't make him dumb or lacking knowledge. Home team favorites are the easy pick in college football and that is nothing new. They are a 6-7 point favorite at home against a team they tend to dominate there.

Saying Phil Steele isn't credible about college ball isn't credible in itself. Is he wrong sometimes...sure. Picking the home team here is the safer pick...like it or not.

I agree with you. Putting too much stock in any one person's prediction is a fool's errand IMO. Now, that being said, any detailed analysis of this game without even mentioning Barkley and his impact is, at the least, incomplete.

 

[Howie'81]

I don't understand why people pick one interview, play the victim, and act like some people don't know anything like Phil Steele. Let's put it like this...you and Phil Steel go head to head talking about every roster in the country, their schedule, and staff's....who wins that trivia challenge? I'll bet the house on Phil. Now, if it is just PSU and PSU alone...I like your chances, but the man and a few others do have a decent understanding of college football overall. It's not as if he doesn't know who Barkley is. Not everyone is picking PSU on the road....yet that makes them dumb? Really? PSU has won...what 1 time there since joining the Big Ten. Everyone gets so crazy of these guesses like they matter. They don't. It doens't make him dumb or lacking knowledge. Home team favorites are the easy pick in college football and that is nothing new. They are a 6-7 point favorite at home against a team they tend to dominate there.

Saying Phil Steele isn't credible about college ball isn't credible in itself. Is he wrong sometimes...sure. Picking the home team here is the safer pick...like it or not.

It was an example. You seem more bothered than me. You're smart La Jolla. You don't analyze this game and omit the best player in the game. Geez.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

It was an example. You seem more bothered than me. You're smart La Jolla. You don't analyze this game and omit the best player in the game. Geez.

Was he asked about Barkley?

 

[Uh Clem]

I would also mention that Steele is an OSU alumnus.

 

[lionroar88]

The McSorley TD at the end of the first half vs scUM showed the true power of having Barkley on the field. His misdirection drew no less than FOUR defenders to the other side of the field to clear a huge lane for Trace to score the easy TD.
Barkley can finish the game with 35 rushing yards and still have a huge impact on the outcome.

It also highlighted the importance of maintaining your assignment, not over pursuing, and playing disciplined football. Had only one or two defenders followed Barkley, Trace most likely does not score. We'll see how disciplined OSU is tomorrow... my bet... they are much more disciplined than UM was.

 

[mjh218]

You know the saying about opinions. Steele is a smart guy and knows a lot about football. His analysis Means nothing though. Its just his opinion (biased or not). Only thing that matters is the score at the end of the game. Steele or anyone else’s opinion will not change the outcome of the game.

 

[Madsol]

Was he asked about Barkley?

Yikes. So I guess you'd expect someone to analyze a New England game without mentioning Tom Brady...unless they're asked to comment specifically on Brady, huh? Weird.

 

[Howie'81]

Was he asked about Barkley?

Not relevant.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Yikes. So I guess you'd expect someone to analyze a New England game without mentioning Tom Brady...unless they're asked to comment specifically on Brady, huh? Weird.

But if that person cover the NFL for decades and was known to have a firm grasp of the league and didn't mention Brady in ONE interview...he's clueless? Really? Sorry not buying that Steele isn't legit because he didn't say the word Barkley in an interview. Had he said Barkley..it made it legit...come on? You either know who Steele is or you don't. One interview on one game is now the line...weird for sure. Sorry...love Howie, but this is much to do about nothing.

 

[Obliviax]

Why do you guys even bother? Gambling guy on local radio, drumming up business for his insider gambling number, said that UM is 10-0 the year after a loss. What does that have to do with anything? He cited the "revenge factor" without citing that PSU was slighted for a team they beat.

Same dude picked Michigan to beat PSU stating that PSU doesn't have the athletes and is still building depth from sanctions.

Again, might as well talk to the drunk at the end of the bar at Hooters. At least their is tangential entertainment.

 

[marshall23]

Folks make money to be "experts" and go on TV or Radio and pick a winner. I could care less what they say. IMO, this is a game that could easily go either way.

 

[Madsol]

But if that person cover the NFL for decades and was known to have a firm grasp of the league and didn't mention Brady in ONE interview...he's clueless? Really? Sorry not buying that Steele isn't legit because he didn't say the word Barkley in an interview. Had he said Barkley..it made it legit...come on? You either know who Steele is or you don't. One interview on one game is now the line...weird for sure. Sorry...love Howie, but this is much to do about nothing.

No, I don't think it makes him clueless. But it's peculiar that an analyst talking about the biggest game of the year doesn't mention the best player on the field. That's it. I really don't think mine is an earth shattering opinion. Now if this was BTN and they're talking PSU-OSU all week and in one particular segment they don't mention Barkley, well that of course is understandable. But in a one-time analysis of the game and no mention of Barkley, then as I said that analysis is incomplete at the very least and frankly pretty silly.

 

[PSU0622]

The McSorley TD at the end of the first half vs scUM showed the true power of having Barkley on the field. His misdirection drew no less than FOUR defenders to the other side of the field to clear a huge lane for Trace to score the easy TD.
Barkley can finish the game with 35 rushing yards and still have a huge impact on the outcome.

I saw a GIF of this on twitter last night and it blew my mind. This is one of the best defenses in the country and every one of their play makers played the ball as if Barkley was getting it. Now I am obviously biased but little things like this show why he is the best player in college football and should win the Heisman. There are very few times one player can make an entire defense sell out to stop them.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

No, I don't think it makes him clueless. But it's peculiar that an analyst talking about the biggest game of the year doesn't mention the best player on the field. That's it. I really don't think mine is an earth shattering opinion. Now if this was BTN and they're talking PSU-OSU all week and in one particular segment they don't mention Barkley, well that of course is understandable. But in a one-time analysis of the game and no mention of Barkley, then as I said that analysis is incomplete at the very least and frankly pretty silly.

Yes it's silly...this whole discussion is. He didn't say Barkley...oh my GOD!!!! He must have never heard of him or PSU.

 

[Madsol]

Yes it's silly...this whole discussion is.

Yep, that's for sure. I'm sorry I ever got involved in it.

 

[lurkerlion]

Some of the analyses out there of this game are terribly flawed.

I know some of you like Phil Steele. Well, last night I heard him give a 5 minute analysis favoring Ohio State without a single mention of Saquon Barkley. Not one comment that the leading Heisman candidate is playing in the game.

And these guys should be considered credible?

C'mon now!

Perhaps he's like Franklin: "I don't have to tell you that Saquon is pretty good." He said that in a news conference not long ago.

Saquon is the game plan for both teams. Does Ohio State sell out on Barkley or accept that he will get his yards and points and shut down everyone else. Iowa tried using Jewell as the main "spy" on him and he gained 200 yards. NW sold out on him and McSorley systematically picked them apart.

It should be fun!

 

[garw]

It’s good for one thing @Howie'81. it generates conversation(new threads, you know). Yesterday we went to see the Ravens Dolphins game. 6 of 7 local Baltimore sports writers picked the “fins”. A massive 40-0 shellacking later and there is no talk this morning of yesterday’s prediction.
The players and coaches don’t pay attention to that stuff. I like it because it gets people worked up. This board would be worthless if not for differing view points and prognostications.
For the record I am picking “dear old state” to win. No way to know whether it will be on a SB run or a blocked field goal!
Enjoy the game fellas!

 

[Howie'81]

But if that person cover the NFL for decades and was known to have a firm grasp of the league and didn't mention Brady in ONE interview...he's clueless? Really? Sorry not buying that Steele isn't legit because he didn't say the word Barkley in an interview. Had he said Barkley..it made it legit...come on? You either know who Steele is or you don't. One interview on one game is now the line...weird for sure. Sorry...love Howie, but this is much to do about nothing.

In this case, his analysis amounted to nothing but fluff. @NittanyChris above mentioned how on Trace's 2nd TD run, Barkley drew 4 defenders to himself and he didn't even get the ball. If a player has that kind of impact on a game, the obvious question for Steele or any analyst is how is OSU going to deal with it?

 

[T J]

Why do you guys even bother? Gambling guy on local radio, drumming up business for his insider gambling number, said that UM is 10-0 the year after a loss. What does that have to do with anything? He cited the "revenge factor" without citing that PSU was slighted for a team they beat.

Again, might as well talk to the drunk at the end of the bar at Hooters. At least there is tangential entertainment.

Clever word choices Obli.
at Hooters
tangential = "touching lightly"

Good visual -
All best get permission
before further "tangentialing" ​

1 tangential
adjective
tan·gen·tial
\tan-ˈjen(t)-shəl\

• 1a : touching lightly :incidental, peripheral tangential involvement; also : of little relevance arguments tangential to the main point

 

[sss]

I don't understand why people pick one interview, play the victim, and act like some people don't know anything like Phil Steele. Let's put it like this...you and Phil Steel go head to head talking about every roster in the country, their schedule, and staff's....who wins that trivia challenge? I'll bet the house on Phil. Now, if it is just PSU and PSU alone...I like your chances, but the man and a few others do have a decent understanding of college football overall. It's not as if he doesn't know who Barkley is. Not everyone is picking PSU on the road....yet that makes them dumb? Really? PSU has won...what 1 time there since joining the Big Ten. Everyone gets so crazy of these guesses like they matter. They don't. It doens't make him dumb or lacking knowledge. Home team favorites are the easy pick in college football and that is nothing new. They are a 6-7 point favorite at home against a team they tend to dominate there.

Saying Phil Steele isn't credible about college ball isn't credible in itself. Is he wrong sometimes...sure. Picking the home team here is the safer pick...like it or not.

And if you follow Steele's picks on games every week, you will he is right about 50% of the time (which is a losing proposition if you are a bettor). This is why there should be no human element in selecting teams for a playoff. Someone who follows CFB this closely still cannot pick the winners of Top25 teams at a greater percentage than a coin flip, no matter how many stats and backup player names can be spouted off.

 

[Countrylion]

I don't understand why people pick one interview, play the victim, and act like some people don't know anything like Phil Steele. Let's put it like this...you and Phil Steel go head to head talking about every roster in the country, their schedule, and staff's....who wins that trivia challenge? I'll bet the house on Phil. Now, if it is just PSU and PSU alone...I like your chances, but the man and a few others do have a decent understanding of college football overall. It's not as if he doesn't know who Barkley is. Not everyone is picking PSU on the road....yet that makes them dumb? Really? PSU has won...what 1 time there since joining the Big Ten. Everyone gets so crazy of these guesses like they matter. They don't. It doens't make him dumb or lacking knowledge. Home team favorites are the easy pick in college football and that is nothing new. They are a 6-7 point favorite at home against a team they tend to dominate there.

Saying Phil Steele isn't credible about college ball isn't credible in itself. Is he wrong sometimes...sure. Picking the home team here is the safer pick...like it or not.

What do past games have to do with this game? Absolutely nothing. By the way PSU has won at least twice at the Horseshoe since joining the Big Ten.

 

[HangTen Lion]

Some of the analyses out there of this game are terribly flawed.

I know some of you like Phil Steele. Well, last night I heard him give a 5 minute analysis favoring Ohio State without a single mention of Saquon Barkley. Not one comment that the leading Heisman candidate is playing in the game.

And these guys should be considered credible?

C'mon now!

Phil Steele knows Ohio State better than any team he follows. He is typically a statistical-data picker but on this one he is picking more on instinct. He has been wrong many times before and as a national forecaster he cannot show his bias for OSU but it has clearly been there over the years with his picks. I think he is wrong with this pick.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

What do past games have to do with this game? Absolutely nothing. By the way PSU has won at least twice at the Horseshoe since joining the Big Ten.

Well the higher ranked team has won all 7 times when PSU and OSU have meant in this scenario...should we toss that out? Past history is something to talk about just like home field advantages are real. It doesn't mean PSU cannot win this game, never said that.

 

[BiochemPSU]

Pundits and opponents know you can't practice or scheme for Barkley; he is a generational talent. Until you get him in real time, you have to adjust to him as the game goes on. If he hits a big run on you early, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and you start to completely over-react to him and everything he does. And then you get burned by the ten other guys on the field. If OSU adjusts well and can keep everyone else in check, they can handle our offense. Easier said than done of course.

 

[Howie'81]

Pundits and opponents know you can't practice or scheme for Barkley; he is a generational talent. Until you get him in real time, you have to adjust to him as the game goes on. If he hits a big run on you early, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and you start to completely over-react to him and everything he does. And then you get burned by the ten other guys on the field. If OSU adjusts well and can keep everyone else in check, they can handle our offense. Easier said than done of course.

If OSU plays us straight up on defense, Barkley can have another Iowa type game.

 

[jbuffone]

Some of the analyses out there of this game are terribly flawed.

I know some of you like Phil Steele. Well, last night I heard him give a 5 minute analysis favoring Ohio State without a single mention of Saquon Barkley. Not one comment that the leading Heisman candidate is playing in the game.

And these guys should be considered credible?

C'mon now!

The worst I've heard so far is Skip Bayless. He picks Ohio State because "they have NFL players all over the field". Aaaand that's it.

I thought, really? That's your "expert" analysis? You get paid to simply state which team has more star players and that's it? What kind of insight is that? Why does that determination require anyone special?

These analysts, even the ones who pick Penn State, are really worthless, because there is no consistency to how they compare opponents. In one game it's all about the players. In another, it's the coach with a higher win %. In another, it's the matchup at wide receiver. And in yet another, it's who has scored more points from outside 20 yards in day games played on grass against teams with winning records outside their conference who's uniforms are up to 3 colors.

It's a joke. They simply pick em based on their gut or bias, and then back into it cherry picking the facts they need to back it up. The fact that it completely contradicts previous opinions or leaves out what was previously thought to be critically important info is irrelevant.

I wish I had a job that required me to be right 0% of the time.

 

[Howie'81]

The worst I've heard so far is Skip Bayless. He picks Ohio State because "they have NFL players all over the field". Aaaand that's it.

I thought, really? That's your "expert" analysis? You get paid to simply state which team has more star players and that's it? What kind of insight is that? Why does that determination require anyone special?

These analysts, even the ones who pick Penn State, are really worthless, because there is no consistency to how they compare opponents. In one game it's all about the players. In another, it's the coach with a higher win %. In another, it's the matchup at wide receiver. And in yet another, it's who has scored more points from outside 20 yards in day games played on grass against teams with winning records outside their conference who's uniforms are up to 3 colors.

It's a joke. They simply pick em based on their gut or bias, and then back into it cherry picking the facts they need to back it up. The fact that it completely contradicts previous opinions is irrelevant.

I wish I had a job that required me to be right 0% of the time.

This is the best post on this topic that I've seen. Well stated. And Bayless may not even be right about the NFL players. There's a bunch on the PSU side of the ball who will play on Sunday's as well. I don't even tune in to Bayless. He sounds as dumb as he looks.