MBB vs Michigan at noon

[bdgan]

I'll go on record and predict PSU will not make the NCAA tournament if they lose today.

ESPN gives PSU a 73% win probability. I'm not as confident. PSU has some nice players and the game is at home. Unfortunately we have nobody to contend with Dickinson.

 

[bdgan]

Currently 13-7. A 6-5 finish might like below might get them in.

Mich - W
@ PUR - L
@ NEB - L
Wisconsin- W
@ MD - L
ILL - W
@ MINN - W
@ OSU -W
RUT - L
@ NW - L
MD - W

 

[Erial_Lion]

Currently 13-7. A 6-5 finish might like below might get them in.

Mich - W
@ PUR - L
@ NEB - L
Wisconsin- W
@ MD - L
ILL - W
@ MINN - W
@ OSU -W
RUT - L
@ NW - L
MD - W

Here would be how Pomeroy and Torvik see the path to go 6-5 (we lose any above the line, and we'll need a win below it to even things up)...

@Minnesota - 73%/76%
Wisconsin - 69%/75%
Michigan (Today) - 65%/71%
@Nebraska - 57%/61%
Maryland - 56%/68%
Illinois - 52%/62%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Rutgers - 48%/47%
@Northwestern - 37%/33%
@Maryland - 33%/39%
@Ohio St - 30%/29%
@Purdue - 17%/14%

KenPom has us going 5-6, while Bart has us going 6-5.

 

[bdgan]

Here would be how Pomeroy and Torvik see the path to go 6-5 (we lose any above the line, and we'll need a win below it to even things up)...

@Minnesota - 73%/76%
Wisconsin - 69%/75%
Michigan (Today) - 65%/71%
@Nebraska - 57%/61%
Maryland - 56%/68%
Illinois - 52%/62%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Rutgers - 48%/47%
@Northwestern - 37%/33%
@Maryland - 33%/39%
@Ohio St - 30%/29%
@Purdue - 17%/14%

KenPom has us going 5-6, while Bart has us going 6-5.

IMO it would take a miracle to beat PUR or RUT.

Too bad we didn't get MINN or OSU twice this year.

 

[scrivener]

Shrews starting Henn and Dorsey...interesting. Sends two messages IMO: 1) He isn't afraid to make a drastic change to get bigger and 2) send a message. Dorsey and Henn aren't exactly studs...but Dread and Kebba have been terrible as of late. Good for Shrews to try something different before it's too late.

 

[bdgan]

Shrews starting Henn and Dorsey...interesting. Sends two messages IMO: 1) He isn't afraid to make a drastic change to get bigger and 2) send a message. Dorsey and Henn aren't exactly studs...but Dread and Kebba have been terrible as of late. Good for Shrews to try something different before it's too late.

Henn and Dorsey played OK early on. Dorsey let one rebound get away but other than that it's been good.

Dread missed his first 3. Need him to make those. Njie had his dunk blocked. Should have been a body foul but he isn't getting the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Pickett's on fire early. Lundy hasn't done much so far.

 

[scrivener]

Henn and Dorsey played OK early on. Dorsey let one rebound get away but other than that it's been good.

Dread missed his first 3. Need him to make those. Njie had his dunk blocked. Should have been a body foul but he isn't getting the benefit of the doubt at this point.

No doubt...I'm just glad Shrews made two moves like that in a really critical game for psu...takes some conviction to do so. Happy about that. It takes more than talking critically in the post games. Wynter and Dread really need to get going and supply some offense....3 on 5 is a tough way to win, as Shrews has mentioned many times.

 

[fkkkjm]

This has been a one-man show this year. Pickett is playing like an all American. Lundy and Funk can both get hot but are inconsistent. Lundy’s been around too long to be so unreliable. Dread is also a liability much of the time and Kebba is a mess.

 

[bdgan]

My hat's off to you if you had Henn outscoring Dickinson in the first half.

PSU is giving up too many offensive rebounds. Howard is 7-8 including 4-5 from 3.

 

[bdgan]

My hat's off to you if you had Henn outscoring Dickinson in the first half.

PSU is giving up too many offensive rebounds. Howard is 7-8 including 4-5 from 3. Gotta slow him down.

 

[bdgan]

Pickett 7-8
Funk 5-7
Henn 3-3

Those 3 are a combined 15-18!

I can't imagine that happening again in the second half. We're going to need more from Lundy and Dread. Also need to slow Howard and stop giving up offensive rebounds.

 

[Erial_Lion]

My hat's off to you if you had Henn outscoring Dickinson in the first half.

PSU is giving up too many offensive rebounds. Howard is 7-8 including 4-5 from 3.

While not expecting Henn to outscore Dickinson, I have been begging for him to get more minutes…think he gives us exactly what we need in the 5 offensively, and his size would have helped against the bigs that had their way with us.

 

[bdgan]

While not expecting Henn to outscore Dickinson, I have been begging for him to get more minutes…think he gives us exactly what we need in the 5 offensively, and his size would have helped against the bigs that had their way with us.

At least he's getting a body on Dickinson. It's nice to see somebody put up a fight.

 

[jjw165]

 

[Erial_Lion]

IMO it would take a miracle to beat PUR or RUT.

Depending on how the next few weeks go, we could be favored over Rutgers (it would pretty much be a coin flip today).

 

[knickslions]

Ass whipping

 

[NC2017]

will 20 wins get us Dancing?

 

[Erial_Lion]

will 20 wins get us Dancing?

If it’s 19 and 1 in Chicago or 20 and losing our first one, almost certainly…if it takes multiple games at the Big Ten Tournament to get to 20, then it’s more complicated.

 

[bdgan]

Depending on how the next few weeks go, we could be favored over Rutgers (it would pretty much be a coin flip today).

I hope PSU found something with the Henn/Dorsey combo but Omoruri is tougher than Dickinson. Also not much chance vs Edey.

I'll be happy if the new combo is enough to keep guys like Crowl from dominating us in the paint.

 

[WaylonJ]

Well that was a heck of a lot of fun!

 

[Erial_Lion]

I hope PSU found something with the Henn/Dorsey combo but Omoruri is tougher than Dickinson. Also not much chance vs Edey.

I'll be happy if the new combo is enough to keep guys like Crowl from dominating us in the paint.

I’d take Dickinson at the offensive end any day over Cliff…but Cliff is a better defender.

Edey is at another level, but at least the bigger guys have the strength to push him off the block a bit. Njie’s strength just isn’t there yet.

 

[NC2017]

If it’s 19 and 1 in Chicago or 20 and losing our first one, almost certainly…if it takes multiple games at the Big Ten Tournament to get to 20, then it’s more complicated.

Looking at our remaining schedule, another 5 wins seems like a possibility. Add one in Chicago, and just maybe.

 

[bison13]

I hope PSU found something with the Henn/Dorsey combo but Omoruri is tougher than Dickinson. Also not much chance vs Edey.

I'll be happy if the new combo is enough to keep guys like Crowl from dominating us in the paint.

My guess is that those two were in there more for offenses purposes more than defense really. They stretch the floor and force Dickinson out onto the perimeter when he’s on defense.
Dickinson made a lot of nice kick out passes once he was doubled and thankfully only Howard was able to make any shots.

The three pointer by Dread at the shot clock buzzer to me, was the key for the whole game. If he doesn’t make that Michigan has a chance to take the lead on the next possession, and if they would have taken, the lead, could’ve been a completely different mindset.

 

[bdgan]

My guess is that those two were in there more for offenses purposes more than defense really. They stretch the floor and force Dickinson out onto the perimeter when he’s on defense.
Dickinson made a lot of nice kick out passes once he was doubled and thankfully only Howard was able to make any shots.

The three pointer by Dread at the shot clock buzzer to me, was the key for the whole game. If he doesn’t make that Michigan has a chance to take the lead on the next possession, and if they would have taken, the lead, could’ve been a completely different mindset.

Henn was putting a body on Dickinson and making it difficult for him to go where he wanted. PSU hasn't shown that physicality previously. That was the positive takeaway for me. His 10 points were a bonus. Next game he's just as likely to miss those 3s but at least he's a threat.

Dread missed two wide open looks but made the hail Mary shot. Go figure.

I give PSU almost no shot at Purdue so the following game at Nebraska is huge.

 

[NittanyChris]

I’m calling a road W at Nebraska.

WE ARE!!!

 

[AWS1022]

Was just now able to watch the game. Really strong outing. They looked really good.

 

[bdgan]

Was just now able to watch the game. Really strong outing. They looked really good.

What looked really good to me was Henn being physical against Dickinson. It's exciting to see the shots fall but that's more of a hit or miss thing.

 

[ryoder1]

We play like that and we can certainly beat Rutgers at home and beat just about everyone left on our schedule minus Purdue.

Reality is that unfortunately we can't copy and paste this performance easily. I think 10-10 in the conference is likely and could be enough to get in without winning a BTT game. We could be a 7 seed in the BTT so winning our first round game is plausible vs a 10 seed.

I agree with posters saying the Henn performance/emergence is potentially huge for us. If he can give us more of a presence in the paint while being able to hit the 3 that takes us to another level.

 

[AWS1022]

What looked really good to me was Henn being physical against Dickinson. It's exciting to see the shots fall but that's more of a hit or miss thing.

And he played well offensively.

 

[ryoder1]

Currently 13-7. A 6-5 finish might like below might get them in.

Mich - W
@ PUR - L
@ NEB - L
Wisconsin- W
@ MD - L
ILL - W
@ MINN - W
@ OSU -W
RUT - L
@ NW - L
MD - W

Illinois is playing well. They will be tough. A must win because otherwise we are not winning 3 of 6 on the road.

 

[bison13]

Illinois is playing well. They will be tough. A must win because otherwise we are not winning 3 of 6 on the road.

True but 3 road wins is not out of the question. I’d expect Nebraska and Minnesota, finding a third out of Maryland Ohio State and northwestern is very possible