Michigan vs Wisconsin
- Thread starter PennStateProud55
- Start date
I’m rooting for Wisconsin
We play them both so it doesn’t really
Matter much for our schedule. And I just would rather see Harbaugh lose
We play them both so it doesn’t really
Matter much for our schedule. And I just would rather see Harbaugh lose
The big picture takeaway from this game will be that Wisconsin is fradulent.
They (1) have an over-rated coach, (2) barely have a Top 25 offense and (3) they really don't have a Top 25 defense. Add that up, and that's a non-Top 25 team.
Take Michigan, give the 7. Wisconsin is on a 1-way road to the Foster Farms Bowl.
They (1) have an over-rated coach, (2) barely have a Top 25 offense and (3) they really don't have a Top 25 defense. Add that up, and that's a non-Top 25 team.
Take Michigan, give the 7. Wisconsin is on a 1-way road to the Foster Farms Bowl.
Might need Michigan to win if we want to go to BIG championship. Not sure tiebreakers but I imagine (barring 2 osu losses) that psu, Michigan, and osu have to all have 1 loss for us to have a shot. Wisco will go no matter what bc of the weak division.. so might need mich to run the table, losing only to psu.
They'd lose the three way tiebreaker with OSU. Because Michigan has another loss in non con and would automatically be discounted. It would be OSU b/c of head-to-head.
PSU can't win any tiebreakers that I can think of over OSU.
On the other hand a Michigan loss devalues Notre Dame's best win. Plus, Harbaugh. The latter is enough to root for Wisky
So it will be a matchup of 2 overrated coaches and 2 non top 25 offenses? Sounds like the under is the play
Our first objective is to win the division. The best way to achieve that objective is for PSU to finish with at least one less conference loss than every other team in the division. So, we want Michigan (and Osu) to lose this weekend and every weekend (while we win every weekend).
The possibility of us participating in the cfp while not winning our division is a completely different conversation and is completely unrelated to the outcome of Wisconsin at Michigan.
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Sounds more like you're describing Michigan, particularly the part about the over-rated coach.
The overall record tiebreaker comes after the tiebreaker that looks for the best record of the teams you played in the other division (ie the SOS of your cross-over games).
Not at all concerned about the conference championship...the committee proved that it’s not mandatory. Just win out and be impressive enough in those wins to pass the “eyeball test”...and screw meatchicken....hope Wisky takes them behind the woodshed.
It appears Bill is correct (to my surprise):
https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
I can’t, and won’t root for Meat Chicken and Harbone. I just can’t do it. Please understand .
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
This automatically eliminates Michigan. Then it goes to a two-way tiebreaker, which is head-to-head.
That’s head-to-head between the three teams (though it is poorly worded).
More I think about this I’m actually not sure. #1 may refer to the overall conference record — seems like we wouldn’t have won in 2016 if it referred to overall record.
Yeah - that's an interesting change in the tie-breakers.
I think we'd line-up somewhat favorably in the case of a 3-way tie at 8-1:
Ohio State cross-division foes: Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue
Michigan cross-division foes: Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Penn State cross-division foes: Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin
Nebraska and Illinois may finish with 1-3 wins. Could cancel each other out.
I think Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin are all better than Minnesota and Purdue. That puts U-M and PSU ahead of OSU.
Both we and U-M play Wisconsin. That cancels each other out.
Could literally come down to who is better between Iowa and Northwestern. Their game is in Evanston. But I do think Iowa is the better team between those two.
Leave it to Jim Delaney, of course, to come up with some scheme where a game between Iowa and Northwestern could decide the B1G East Champion.
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If Michigan, OSU and PSU all finish 8-1 in the B1G East --- then the division winner will be determined by the cumulative conference record of their cross-division foes.
Our conference would be a literal laughing-stock if this scenario played out (this is NOT completely unrealistic):
(1) All of U-M, OSU and PSU win out up until Thanksgiving, with PSU beating U-M in Ann Arbor on 3-November.
(2) On 24-November, Michigan beats Ohio State at Noon to get them both to 8-1.
(3) Also on 24-November, Penn State is also playing at Noon, we win to get to 8-1.
(4) Later that day, Illinois is playing Northwestern at 3:30. THAT game decides whether it is Michigan (if Northwestern wins) or Penn State (if Illinois wins) that goes to Indianapolis.
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The thing is --- the literal only way that Penn State can win the B1G East without Ohio State losing at least twice is for there to be a 3-way tie at 8-1 among U-M, OSU and PSU (and that scenario above plays out).
We obviously lose the division if OSU wins out. We also obviously lose the division if we and OSU finish in a 2-way tie at 8-1. And no other team besides U-M can be a part of a 3-way tie between us, PSU and "team X" at 8-1.
Given that OSU will be a significant double-digit favorite in every game prior to Michigan (and may be a double-digit favorite in that game as well) --- we sort of want Michigan to keep on winning and keep that 3-way tie at 8-1 scenario within the realm of possibilities.
This. Plus an East team getting a loss instead of a West team (could theoretically help us though very unlikely in terms of winning the division). Plus, although it's marginal, the weaker Michigan is the more it could hurt their recruiting and we directly compete with them for recruits far more than Wisconsin.
Do as you will.
These two statements are both true:
(1) if Michigan loses Saturday, we cannot win the B1G unless Ohio State loses at least twice.
(2) if Michigan wins Saturday, we still can win the B1G even if Ohio State loses only once more (to Michigan).
Wisconsin is a sheep in wolves clothing this year. They don't have a pass rush and they have a shaky secondary. Hornibrook is good...sometimes.
Bet on PSU -13.5 and UM -7 Satruday for an easy two game parylay win.
Bet on PSU -13.5 and UM -7 Satruday for an easy two game parylay win.
What sucks is Urban has never lost two big ten games in a season and they dont play Wiscosin or Iowa as a crossover.
OSU will roll MSU again this year. Really the nly chance OSU has losing is to UM but UM is all that great and OSU just flat out owns them.
Lose h2h to OSU = No Indy for the time being for every B1G East team
Have been through this at length on this board. Michigan’s non con loss won’t impact a 3 way tie breaker. PSU needs a 3 way tie to have a legit shot at Big 10 East title. Likely tie breaker would come down to combined records of Big 10 West teams that OSU, Michigan & PSU play. In this scenario, OSU would likely get bounced.
Bottom line...PSU fans should be rooting for Michigan this Saturday, and every Saturday, except for when play us.
yeah, i can't see UM rolling into Columbus winning that game. OSU has a better chance slipping up against a random team than losing at home to their hated rival. OSU will go undefeated.
ironically, we have a better chance reaching the CFP than the BIG championship. we just have to win our games and not worry about anyone else (although, it's fun to play our the scenarios).
what's the deal with MSU?...is LJ Scott playing? who's actually going to play on the OL? Chewins & Jarvis back?
That ship has sailed. No way OSU loses twice. We are out of that so only way we make playoffs is if OSU keeps winning, we keep winning, and ND or an SEC loses to put both us and OSU in the playoffs.
agreed...OSU & PSU needs to win out. obviously, some teams have to lose. ND is definitely the wild card.....dare I say....GO PITT!!!!!
Also, we eventually jump Washington even if they win out based on strength of schedule and if Auburn keeps losing (UW's only loss).
but again...we gotta win out....tall order.
realistically....we gotta another loss coming somewhere. As much as I'm pulling for CFP appearance, objectively, are we a top 4 team?....I don't think so, but whatever. hard to argue a 10-2 season with a New Year's 6 bowl appearance again (hopefully, worst case).
You have to think that one of these years Michigan is going to win that game. They have been close in the past. Maybe this year is the year?
IMO, OSU is not the juggernaut the media is making them out to be. The only 2 teams they’ve played with a pulse, TCU & OSU, they’ve had to come from behind in the 2nd half. Haskins is a different QB with pressure in his face. I could absolutely see Michigan give them a game, this year.
hey..maybe. If we can make Haskins look bad, then so can Michigan's D. maybe we're all discounting Michigan too much thus far. I don't know. but that game is going to be in the Shoe...so that'll be tough. we'll see
I agree. If Gary is healthy and they can get pressure on Haskins it will be tough sledding for the OSU offense.
What are you talking about? They lost to us and Iowa in 2016. Is your memory really that short?
Our Spartan guest is correct. OSU has never lost 2 B1G games in 1 year under Urban.
OSU only has 8 losses overall under Urban:
(1) 2013 B1G Championship game vs. Michigan State.
(2) 2013 Orange Bowl vs. Clemson.
(3) 2014 home vs. Virginia Tech
(4) 2015 home vs. Michigan State.
(5) 2016 at Penn State.
(6) 2016 National Semifinal vs. Clemson.
(7) 2017 home vs. Oklahoma
(8) 2017 at Iowa.
I feel this is the year michigan pulls the upset in Columbus. They are due. Regardless though - It doesn't really matter if a 3 way tie or we lose division. If we win out - I feel we are in the playoff.
Ideally - to win the division - Michigan needs to win out (except against us). So root for Michigan.
I don't see Clemson winning out. They usually slip up once - plus with QB situation wonky - it is likely to happen.
Who to root for this weekend.
1) Pitt - I know - I know - but ND losing to Pitt is the best case for us against them. We beat them On the road (handily) and if they beat ND in Southbend - there is essentially no way they can be selected over us. If they lose to USC then arguments could be made
2) LSU to beat Georgia. I know this may seem counter productive as both LSU/UGA would be ahead of us (likely) - they both play Bama ahead (assuming UGA would win out). Bama doing what Bama does would eliminate both LSU/UGA (give them 2 losses) and eliminate 2 SEC teams
At this point - PSU if they were to win out - would stand a good chance against a PAC12/BIG12 champ with 1 loss - but a 2 loss champ would all but guarantee PSU is in.
If Clemson/ND lose once - and the BIG12 plays out with all teams with 1/2 losses and the same with the PAC - then we might be better off with OSU winning out - and not having to play the extra game.
Ideally - to win the division - Michigan needs to win out (except against us). So root for Michigan.
I don't see Clemson winning out. They usually slip up once - plus with QB situation wonky - it is likely to happen.
Who to root for this weekend.
1) Pitt - I know - I know - but ND losing to Pitt is the best case for us against them. We beat them On the road (handily) and if they beat ND in Southbend - there is essentially no way they can be selected over us. If they lose to USC then arguments could be made
2) LSU to beat Georgia. I know this may seem counter productive as both LSU/UGA would be ahead of us (likely) - they both play Bama ahead (assuming UGA would win out). Bama doing what Bama does would eliminate both LSU/UGA (give them 2 losses) and eliminate 2 SEC teams
At this point - PSU if they were to win out - would stand a good chance against a PAC12/BIG12 champ with 1 loss - but a 2 loss champ would all but guarantee PSU is in.
If Clemson/ND lose once - and the BIG12 plays out with all teams with 1/2 losses and the same with the PAC - then we might be better off with OSU winning out - and not having to play the extra game.
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