Interesting solar research continues to unfold. Bold predictions require strong evidence. So far, a match to the records of the last 3,000 years seems to be a good start.
Some researchers who may accept this theory or "law" also note that current naturally derived ocean warmth may possibly dampen the impact.
More analysis is needed. However, in this case, evidence may be as few as 5 years away.
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From the research review...
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Some researchers who may accept this theory or "law" also note that current naturally derived ocean warmth may possibly dampen the impact.
More analysis is needed. However, in this case, evidence may be as few as 5 years away.
=====
From the research review...
Prof Zharkova said:
“We have now established a mathematical law which others can use to apply to this area of research, and
so far we have been able to match our research with proven meteorological records dating back 3000 years to 1000 BC.
“This has given us the confidence to predict what will happen to solar activity in the future decades.
This decrease poses a question about expected reduction of the temperature of the planet in the coming years because the sun, as we are confidently predicting, will enter into a grand minimum beginning in 2020 - the first such one since the Maunder Minimum.
“We confidently predict this minimum will last for three cycles (33 years), not as long as the last one, but during this time global temperature may fall by an average of 1.5°C although there will be fluctuations across the globe.”
“We have now established a mathematical law which others can use to apply to this area of research, and
so far we have been able to match our research with proven meteorological records dating back 3000 years to 1000 BC.
“This has given us the confidence to predict what will happen to solar activity in the future decades.
This decrease poses a question about expected reduction of the temperature of the planet in the coming years because the sun, as we are confidently predicting, will enter into a grand minimum beginning in 2020 - the first such one since the Maunder Minimum.
“We confidently predict this minimum will last for three cycles (33 years), not as long as the last one, but during this time global temperature may fall by an average of 1.5°C although there will be fluctuations across the globe.”
=====
Mini ice-age which could freeze the Tyne is on the way, says Newcastle academic
Ice skating on the River Tyne in the early 20th century
This damp and cold summer may be a sign of things to come with the earth poised to enter a 30-year mini ice-age which may freeze the Tyne, says a world-leading Newcastle academic. Peter McCusker reports.
The sun is in good shape and has a ‘healthy heartbeat’ which will last at least another five billion years, says Prof Valentina Zharkova, of Northumbria University.
Ms Zharkova, a professor in the department of mathematics, physics and electrical engineering, says this regular heartbeat of the sun is subject to predictable fluctuations of its magnetic field, and over the next few years as it enters a lull temperatures, here on earth, will plummet.
--//--
This time last year Prof Zharkova announced she had discovered a key solar event which determines magnetic field variations over time.
And she ‘confidently’ predicts we will be heading to another ‘Solar Grand Minima’ in solar cycle 25, beginning in 2020 and lasting until 2053.
During the last such event on the sun between 1645 and 1715 - and known as the Maunder Minimum - people skated on a frozen Thames as the average temperature in England fell by almost 2°C.
Prof Zharkova and her team postulate from their observations of the whole sun that sun spots on the solar surface are caused by the movement of a pair of background magnetic waves across its interior and surface, in both hemispheres.
The magnetic waves start their journey from opposite hemispheres and when they interact with each other on this journey sun spots develop.
The intensity and number of sun spots depends on the amplitude of the magnetic waves when they cross.
We are now entering a period where the sun’s pair of magnetic waves will cross at low amplitudes, beginning with solar cycle 25 in 2020.
And in solar cycle 26, beginning in 2031, we may enter a period of little, or no sunspot activity - and much cooler temperatures - as the pair of magnetic waves fail to cross at any point as they will remain fully separated in the opposite hemispheres of the sun.
Prof Zharkova and her colleagues have been able to simulate this on computer models allowing them to predict future cycles for the next millennium.
Prof Zharkova says her research is ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity and upcoming Maunder Minimum that might affect human lives’.
Prof Zharkova said: “We have now established a mathematical law which others can use to apply to this area of research, and so far we have been able to match our research with proven meteorological records dating back 3000 years to 1000 BC.
“This has given us the confidence to predict what will happen to solar activity in the future decades. This decrease poses a question about expected reduction of the temperature of the planet in the coming years because the sun, as we are confidently predicting, will enter into a grand minimum beginning in 2020 - the first such one since the Maunder Minimum.
“We confidently predict this minimum will last for three cycles (33 years), not as long as the last one, but during this time global temperature may fall by an average of 1.5°C although there will be fluctuations across the globe.”
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/busi...e-could-freeze-11607587#ICID=sharebar_twitter
- 11:30, 13 JUL 2016
- UPDATED 11:42, 13 JUL 2016
- BY PETER MCCUSKER
Ice skating on the River Tyne in the early 20th century
This damp and cold summer may be a sign of things to come with the earth poised to enter a 30-year mini ice-age which may freeze the Tyne, says a world-leading Newcastle academic. Peter McCusker reports.
The sun is in good shape and has a ‘healthy heartbeat’ which will last at least another five billion years, says Prof Valentina Zharkova, of Northumbria University.
Ms Zharkova, a professor in the department of mathematics, physics and electrical engineering, says this regular heartbeat of the sun is subject to predictable fluctuations of its magnetic field, and over the next few years as it enters a lull temperatures, here on earth, will plummet.
--//--
This time last year Prof Zharkova announced she had discovered a key solar event which determines magnetic field variations over time.
And she ‘confidently’ predicts we will be heading to another ‘Solar Grand Minima’ in solar cycle 25, beginning in 2020 and lasting until 2053.
During the last such event on the sun between 1645 and 1715 - and known as the Maunder Minimum - people skated on a frozen Thames as the average temperature in England fell by almost 2°C.
Prof Zharkova and her team postulate from their observations of the whole sun that sun spots on the solar surface are caused by the movement of a pair of background magnetic waves across its interior and surface, in both hemispheres.
The magnetic waves start their journey from opposite hemispheres and when they interact with each other on this journey sun spots develop.
The intensity and number of sun spots depends on the amplitude of the magnetic waves when they cross.
We are now entering a period where the sun’s pair of magnetic waves will cross at low amplitudes, beginning with solar cycle 25 in 2020.
And in solar cycle 26, beginning in 2031, we may enter a period of little, or no sunspot activity - and much cooler temperatures - as the pair of magnetic waves fail to cross at any point as they will remain fully separated in the opposite hemispheres of the sun.
Prof Zharkova and her colleagues have been able to simulate this on computer models allowing them to predict future cycles for the next millennium.
Prof Zharkova says her research is ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity and upcoming Maunder Minimum that might affect human lives’.
Prof Zharkova said: “We have now established a mathematical law which others can use to apply to this area of research, and so far we have been able to match our research with proven meteorological records dating back 3000 years to 1000 BC.
“This has given us the confidence to predict what will happen to solar activity in the future decades. This decrease poses a question about expected reduction of the temperature of the planet in the coming years because the sun, as we are confidently predicting, will enter into a grand minimum beginning in 2020 - the first such one since the Maunder Minimum.
“We confidently predict this minimum will last for three cycles (33 years), not as long as the last one, but during this time global temperature may fall by an average of 1.5°C although there will be fluctuations across the globe.”
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/busi...e-could-freeze-11607587#ICID=sharebar_twitter
