More to ignore, Book 104...

Ten Thousan Marbles

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.....On Tuesday, Russia’s Tucker Carlson, top propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, greeted his audience by wishing them a “Happy Interference in the U.S. Election Day.” Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as “Putin's chef,” who was indicted as part of special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian election interference, likewise decided to publicly fess up to the allegations he previously denied.

This plan to discredit the U.S. elections and convince the Republicans that the mighty Kremlin hand covertly helped push them to victory had backfired. On Wednesday, state TV propagandists were scratching their heads about the wave that turned out to be but a trickle. During the broadcast of 60 Minutes, host Olga Skabeeva asked an expert: “How are our guys in America?” Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov clarified with a chuckle:
“Our Republicans.”......

 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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Ukraine update: Towns across Kherson region reported liberated as Russia announces withdrawal

Mark Sumner
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Ukraine update: Snihurivka, Kyselivka, Bruskynske liberated. Ukraine advances across Kherson region

Mark Sumner
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Ukraine update: Fighting underway as Ukrainian troops enter Kherson. Russia loses its biggest prize

Mark Sumner

Throughout the day, videos and images have shown that Ukrainian forces have been sweeping through Kherson oblast with very little in the way of opposition. However, it’s become clear that many of the videos being released are at least 24 hours old. Ukraine has been moving toward Kherson for the last two days.

And now it’s there. Sources on both sides have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have full control of Bilozerka west of Kherson, as well as Chornobaivka on the immediate northern edge of the town. Both of these places have been, in the recent past, areas with high concentrations of Russian forces and equipment.

It’s now clear that Russia no longer really controls any area west of the Dnipro River. Whatever plans they had for a fallback defensive line appear to have fallen apart. It’s well after dark in Kherson right now, and Ukrainian forces appear to be still advancing under a nearly full moon

screencap.jpg


The blue locations are those where multiple sources report they have been liberated by Ukraine. Those still yellow are simply locations for which I don’t have any news, or where they’ve only appeared in unofficial lists. The actual location of Ukrainian forces should be expected to be much different from the area in blue here. That’s especially true in the north, where fighting is reported very near Beryslav.

There are reports that Ukraine is chiefly acting to keep anyone from escaping across the river. They want to bag these guys where they are, so they never have to fight them again, and so that Russia is delivered a crushing blow to morale
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Ukrainian forces have been collecting Russian equipment and Russian stragglers along the roads as they moved rapidly toward Kherson and Beryslav. They’ve also engaged with small Russian forces, eliminating them in passing.

However, reports from Russian sources put the remaining Russian force on the west bank of the river at an astounding 20,000. If other reports are accurate, those forces are now mostly concentrated in the area of Beryslav, and near the harbor in the city of Kherson. Fighting is going on in both places. And that fighting is not trivial.



So far, Thursday has been like a celebration in Kherson. Ukrainian forces have advanced capturing an untold bounty of abandoned equipment and being greeted in village, town, and city. Now it is just after midnight there on Friday morning. When the next sunrise comes up, Ukraine could hold all of Kherson, and perhaps all of the oblast west of the river.

If the number of Russians still on the west side is accurate, Ukraine may also be about to take a terrific victory, or be on the receiving end of one of the largest surrenders in history. Some Russian forces are reportedly attempting to flee the city under cover of darkness in small boats, or on anything that will float, hoping to be carried to safety downriver. However, Russian troops deliberately smashed many small boats along the waterfront days ago, probably to prevent anyone from getting this idea too early.

What’s happening in Kherson is going to be a story for the ages, no matter what comes next.

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Multiple reports of Russian forces moving through Nova Kakhovka to somewhere east. Possibly the Melitopol area.


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Reports that a lot of that Ukrainian artillery firing in Kherson is doing so to make it clear that attempting to cross the river is a very bad idea.


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Ukraine has announced 41 liberated settlements in the Kherson area. The map above is mostly aligned with those announcements, though there are a few spots (mostly small villages) that I haven’t yet updated.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 9:07:04 PM EST · Mark Sumner
For the last two days, pro-Russian sites have been insisting that there was a “deal” in place, one that said Ukraine wouldn’t press Russian forces and would allow them to escape across the river to Dnipro in exchange for their agreeing to leave. The idea of this deal never made any sense, but it was very reassuring for Russian sources, both because it meant they would get their troops and equipment across the river, and because it suggested that they were only surrendering Kherson as part of an agreement, rather than being “actually defeated.”

The problem with spreading around a theory like that, is that the wrong people might believe it. Like the guys who needed to be driving full speed for the river in hopes of making some escape.

“There is panic there now. The equipment is abandoned. According to optimistic estimates, the Ukrainian military will capture about 5,000 of our military. According to the pessimistic, the whole group of 20,000 may be captured. This is the end.”

 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 7:32:45 PM EST · Mark Sumner
The posts on Russian Telegram channels tonight are almost as incredible as the military situation. One is calling on Ukrainian forces to march on Moscow, destroy the Kremlin, and get it over with. Others are saying that when the images of Russian losses in Kherson become public, it may be enough to end Vladimir Putin.

There seems to be a broad understanding that this isn’t just a repositioning, or even a defeat. It’s a humiliation.
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UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 7:04:43 PM EST · Mark Sumner
Russian air defenses have reportedly been withdrawn from the Kherson area. Both Ukrainian planes and drone are reportedly free to work the area, with drones using IR to spot for artillery. Both air strikes and precision guided weapons hitting at both massed forces and vehicles attempting to break away.


This is a very, very bad night for Russia.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 9:20:37 PM EST · Mark Sumner
There is a letter circulating from an independent Russian media site claiming that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipro and are decimating Russian forces around Nova Kakhovka. This is unbelievable. As in, I don’t believe it.

But it’s illustrative of just where the Russian mindstate is this evening. They’re ready to run with the most dire rumors.
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UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 9:16:56 PM EST · Mark Sumner

Trying to find out what’s happening at Beryslav without a lot of luck. Information from the fighting there is spotty at best. Here are Ukrainian forces preparing for the day in Mylove, which was clearly liberated earlier.

 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 6:48:06 PM EST · Mark Sumner
This is a small fraction of what’s going to pile up over the coming days. The amount of equipment left behind in Kherson is likely to make the equipment captured in the Kharkiv counteroffensive seem like a blip.

 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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The U.S. will buy 100,000 rounds of howitzer artillery from South Korean manufacturers to provide to Ukraine, a U.S. official said Thursday, in a deal the two governments have been working on for some time.

The agreement comes as Ukrainian leaders press for more weapons and aid to take advantage of a counteroffensive that is pushing Russian forces out of some areas they had taken over earlier in the war. And it relieves concerns within the U.S. military — particularly the Army and the Marine Corps — who are worried that persistent transfers of the Pentagon’s howitzer ammunition to Ukraine are eating into their stockpiles.

Other defense officials confirmed the broad outlines of the contract and said it would help with stockpile pressures, specifically involving the howitzer ammunition, which Ukrainian forces have been using at a high rate. Last week a defense official briefing reporters said Ukraine was burning through as many as 7,000 rounds of ammunition a day, while Russia was firing as much as 20,000 rounds daily.....
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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London will supply Kiev with another 1,000 surface-to-air missiles and over 25,000 winter kits for Ukrainian troops, United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in a telephone call with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

"The Prime Minister [...] confirmed that the UK would continue providing further military aid, including another 1,000 surface-to-air missiles and more than 25,000 extreme cold winter kits for troops," the UK government said in a press release.

Sunak and Zelensky "agreed to remain in close contact" regarding support for Ukraine, it said.
 

Ten Thousan Marbles

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.....At the CyberwarCon security conference in Arlington, Virginia, today, analysts from the security firm Mandiant laid out a new set of tools and techniques that they say Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency is using against targets in Ukraine, where the GRU’s hackers have for years carried out many of the most aggressive and destructive cyberattacks in history. According to Mandiant analysts Gabby Roncone and John Wolfram, who say their findings are based on months of Mandiant’s Ukrainian incident response cases, the GRU has shifted in particular to what they call “living on the edge.” Instead of the phishing attacks that GRU hackers typically used in the past to steal victims’ credentials or plant backdoors on unwitting users’ computers inside target organizations, they're now targeting “edge” devices like firewalls, routers, and email servers, often exploiting vulnerabilities in those machines that give them more immediate access.......
 

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