Ukraine update: Big moves, bigger confusion as counteroffensive opens new chapter in the war
Mark Sumner
Four days ago, Ukraine announced a counteroffensive. Around Kharkiv, that announcement seemed unnecessary, as it was already clear Ukrainian troops were on the move, retaking villages and towns, pushing back Russian forces, directing artillery fire at the next Russian position, and advancing. This has been the kind of tactic both Ukraine and Russia have used throughout the war.
In the Kharkiv area, everything seemed to be “in sync” when it comes to matching this tactic. There were Telegram and Twitter reports of attacks on Russian garrisons at various towns; satellite data that showed those areas being knocked around by artillery fire; images whose geolocations placed them near these towns; and finally announcements of villages and towns liberated by Ukrainian forces. Predicting the names that were likely to appear on the list of recaptured locations didn’t exactly take a genius.
Ukraine moves against sites along the highway connecting Kharkiv to Staryi Saltiv
Hours after this data was available from NASA satellites, Ukraine reported the recapture of villages and towns that could be named just by moving a finger from one red patch to the next.
So what to make of this image?
FIRMS data shows heavy fire on bridge across Donets east of Rubizhne
The masses of activity here indicate a heavy use of artillery in two areas. The one directly west of Staryi Saltiv is in an area just north of the town of Ukrainka, which was part of that list of recaptured locations on Friday. A close look reveals this fire seems to be centered at a fork in the road just outside the town, which may be the fallback position of Russian forces. Of course, this could also be Russian forces further north firing down on Ukrainian positions in an attempt to slow their advance. NASA’s fire detection satellites, unfortunately, don’t color code by the source of the fire.
But the more interesting blob of activity is that one about six miles north of Staryi Saltiv. All of that seems to be going on very, very close to the bridge that crosses the Siverskyi Donets River just east of the town of Rubizhne. The heavy activity there offers several tantalizing possibilities.
Ukraine may have raced up the west bank of the river, recapturing Verkhnii Saltiv and closing on the bridge. It could be directing distant fire from positions in Staryi Saltiv. Even more difficult to deduce than location is motive. These blasts are right around the bridge. Right around the bridge.
Detail of FIRMS data at bridge across Siverskyi Donets River
It’s almost certain this is Ukrainian fire directed into Russian positions. But is Ukraine trying to drive Russia back so they can capture the bridge intact? Are they trying to damage the bridge and isolate forces on the west side of the river? Again, NASA doesn’t really help with this. But something big is happening both west and north of Staryi Saltiv, and it may be some time before we really understand what that is.
Even so, if the data in the Kharkiv area offers a tantalizing hint that Ukraine is moving more quickly than either side has done since this invasion began, what’s happening around Izyum can best be described by this technical term: WTF?
Soon after the invasion began, Russian ran a salient out of their controlled area extending west to the main road running south out of Kharkiv, then turning south to reach the town of Izyum. The purpose of the Russian advance was clearly an attempt to cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, isolate them, and allow Russia to attack those heavily fortified towns along the Donbas border from all sides. Izyum became the stopper for the Russian advance over the next few weeks with Russian forces on the north side, and Ukrainian forces on the south side of a bend in that yes-it’s-everywhere Siverskyi Donets River. It was still that way at the end of March, until Russian forces managed to ford the river at a spot south of the city, reportedly with the help of a pro-Russian local official.
Once Ukrainian forces in the city had been defeated, Izyum became the center of Russia’s actions in the east. With the end of the Battle of Kyiv, kos reported on Izyum’s importance to the next act of the war, the difficulty of maintaining long supply lines to support such an extended salient, and Ukraine’s efforts to snap Russia’s connection to Izyum.
But over time, Russia extended and fortified its position at Izyum. It opened up additional routes to the city by capturing bridges to the east, conducted probing attacks to push back Ukrainian forces from surrounding towns, and began basing a larger and larger force near the captured city.
When analyst Henry Schlottman put together his map of troop density in eastern Ukraine earlier this week, it was clear that nowhere had more forces per kilometer than Izyum. Russia intends Izyum to be the center for its push to the south, and it has built up a very large force that Schlottman believes to be 22 Battalion Tactical Groups. That’s dozens of tanks, hundreds of transports, and over 15,000 men. It’s not too much to suggest that Izyum has become the heart of Russia’s effort to secure the Donbas.
For the last three days, there has been word that a counteroffensive against the Russian position at Izyum was underway. However, it’s been extremely difficult to understand what form that counteroffensive might take. After all, Izyum seemed to offer few opportunities for the kind of capture, advance, capture strategy that the war has seen so far, not when there are all those forces gathered.
Area around Izyum, as understood on May 1
Since that announcement, there has been no list of villages reported recaptured. None of the kind of semi-daily updates that have come from activity in other areas. However, there have been images like this one, whose geolocation put them seriously close to Izyum itself.
And then, there is … this other thing. That FIRMS data. When looking at the data around Kharkiv, NASA’s fire-detecting satellites told such a clear story. You can read it day by day as Ukrainian forces move out into the immediate suburbs, push Russia back, drive to Staryi Saltiv, capture villages along the main road, and now turn to the north.
But what kind of story is Izyum telling?
This image shows NASA FIRMS data for the Izyum area on May 3, the day that counteroffensive was first mentioned. There are several small areas of artillery activity — though its worth pointing out that the area of red on the lower right of this image, which I regularly reported over the last week as “Russian forces firing into Ukrainian positions” turns out to be … a fire. Like a forest fire. Which shows again that any source of data, in isolation, leaves a lot of potential for mistakes. Keep that in mind.
Two days later, and the area west of Izyum has exploded. To steal a title from Celeste Ng, there are indeed Little Fires Everywhere. And I do mean everywhere. A lot of these hot spots aren’t near a town or village, though others area. Now, let’s look ahead 24 hours.
Just as many hot spots as Thursday, but many of them in different locations. This is nothing like what we’ve seen elsewhere.
There are a couple of extremely different explanations for what these maps are showing.
One: Ukraine could be using a tactic utterly different than anything we’ve seen before in this war. The area where most of this activity is shown is sparsely populated, heavily forested, and crisscrossed by hundreds of farming roads, logging roads, and roads that are little better than goat paths. Ukraine could be using these roads to bypass fortified Russian positions, ignore occupied villages, and just strike directly at Russian units in positions that Russia thought were safely well behind the lines.
Two: This is a sparsely populated, heavily forested area and it could be burning.
The best answer is probably a combination of the above. Based on photographs and scattered reports, it’s clear Ukraine has been trying to take the fight to Russia in the Izyum area. and all those roads in a near-empty area that practically makes a path to the outskirts of the city would be hard to resist as a place to operate under cover and with a lot of freedom of movement. Seriously, take a look.
In Robin Hood terms, this is a Sherwood forest that comes right to the edge of Nottingham. There’s access, there’s cover, there’s everything you might want if you wanted to mount a mobile, fast moving assault on Russian positions without trying to lock down villages or expressly hold territory.
There are almost certainly fires in the woods west of Izyum. But it seems extremely likely that no one is fighting those fires, because they’re too busy with the fire fight.
Mark Sumner
Four days ago, Ukraine announced a counteroffensive. Around Kharkiv, that announcement seemed unnecessary, as it was already clear Ukrainian troops were on the move, retaking villages and towns, pushing back Russian forces, directing artillery fire at the next Russian position, and advancing. This has been the kind of tactic both Ukraine and Russia have used throughout the war.
In the Kharkiv area, everything seemed to be “in sync” when it comes to matching this tactic. There were Telegram and Twitter reports of attacks on Russian garrisons at various towns; satellite data that showed those areas being knocked around by artillery fire; images whose geolocations placed them near these towns; and finally announcements of villages and towns liberated by Ukrainian forces. Predicting the names that were likely to appear on the list of recaptured locations didn’t exactly take a genius.
Ukraine moves against sites along the highway connecting Kharkiv to Staryi Saltiv
Hours after this data was available from NASA satellites, Ukraine reported the recapture of villages and towns that could be named just by moving a finger from one red patch to the next.
So what to make of this image?
FIRMS data shows heavy fire on bridge across Donets east of Rubizhne
The masses of activity here indicate a heavy use of artillery in two areas. The one directly west of Staryi Saltiv is in an area just north of the town of Ukrainka, which was part of that list of recaptured locations on Friday. A close look reveals this fire seems to be centered at a fork in the road just outside the town, which may be the fallback position of Russian forces. Of course, this could also be Russian forces further north firing down on Ukrainian positions in an attempt to slow their advance. NASA’s fire detection satellites, unfortunately, don’t color code by the source of the fire.
But the more interesting blob of activity is that one about six miles north of Staryi Saltiv. All of that seems to be going on very, very close to the bridge that crosses the Siverskyi Donets River just east of the town of Rubizhne. The heavy activity there offers several tantalizing possibilities.
Ukraine may have raced up the west bank of the river, recapturing Verkhnii Saltiv and closing on the bridge. It could be directing distant fire from positions in Staryi Saltiv. Even more difficult to deduce than location is motive. These blasts are right around the bridge. Right around the bridge.
Detail of FIRMS data at bridge across Siverskyi Donets River
It’s almost certain this is Ukrainian fire directed into Russian positions. But is Ukraine trying to drive Russia back so they can capture the bridge intact? Are they trying to damage the bridge and isolate forces on the west side of the river? Again, NASA doesn’t really help with this. But something big is happening both west and north of Staryi Saltiv, and it may be some time before we really understand what that is.
Even so, if the data in the Kharkiv area offers a tantalizing hint that Ukraine is moving more quickly than either side has done since this invasion began, what’s happening around Izyum can best be described by this technical term: WTF?
Soon after the invasion began, Russian ran a salient out of their controlled area extending west to the main road running south out of Kharkiv, then turning south to reach the town of Izyum. The purpose of the Russian advance was clearly an attempt to cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, isolate them, and allow Russia to attack those heavily fortified towns along the Donbas border from all sides. Izyum became the stopper for the Russian advance over the next few weeks with Russian forces on the north side, and Ukrainian forces on the south side of a bend in that yes-it’s-everywhere Siverskyi Donets River. It was still that way at the end of March, until Russian forces managed to ford the river at a spot south of the city, reportedly with the help of a pro-Russian local official.
Once Ukrainian forces in the city had been defeated, Izyum became the center of Russia’s actions in the east. With the end of the Battle of Kyiv, kos reported on Izyum’s importance to the next act of the war, the difficulty of maintaining long supply lines to support such an extended salient, and Ukraine’s efforts to snap Russia’s connection to Izyum.
But over time, Russia extended and fortified its position at Izyum. It opened up additional routes to the city by capturing bridges to the east, conducted probing attacks to push back Ukrainian forces from surrounding towns, and began basing a larger and larger force near the captured city.
When analyst Henry Schlottman put together his map of troop density in eastern Ukraine earlier this week, it was clear that nowhere had more forces per kilometer than Izyum. Russia intends Izyum to be the center for its push to the south, and it has built up a very large force that Schlottman believes to be 22 Battalion Tactical Groups. That’s dozens of tanks, hundreds of transports, and over 15,000 men. It’s not too much to suggest that Izyum has become the heart of Russia’s effort to secure the Donbas.
For the last three days, there has been word that a counteroffensive against the Russian position at Izyum was underway. However, it’s been extremely difficult to understand what form that counteroffensive might take. After all, Izyum seemed to offer few opportunities for the kind of capture, advance, capture strategy that the war has seen so far, not when there are all those forces gathered.
Area around Izyum, as understood on May 1
Since that announcement, there has been no list of villages reported recaptured. None of the kind of semi-daily updates that have come from activity in other areas. However, there have been images like this one, whose geolocation put them seriously close to Izyum itself.
And then, there is … this other thing. That FIRMS data. When looking at the data around Kharkiv, NASA’s fire-detecting satellites told such a clear story. You can read it day by day as Ukrainian forces move out into the immediate suburbs, push Russia back, drive to Staryi Saltiv, capture villages along the main road, and now turn to the north.
But what kind of story is Izyum telling?
This image shows NASA FIRMS data for the Izyum area on May 3, the day that counteroffensive was first mentioned. There are several small areas of artillery activity — though its worth pointing out that the area of red on the lower right of this image, which I regularly reported over the last week as “Russian forces firing into Ukrainian positions” turns out to be … a fire. Like a forest fire. Which shows again that any source of data, in isolation, leaves a lot of potential for mistakes. Keep that in mind.
Two days later, and the area west of Izyum has exploded. To steal a title from Celeste Ng, there are indeed Little Fires Everywhere. And I do mean everywhere. A lot of these hot spots aren’t near a town or village, though others area. Now, let’s look ahead 24 hours.
Just as many hot spots as Thursday, but many of them in different locations. This is nothing like what we’ve seen elsewhere.
There are a couple of extremely different explanations for what these maps are showing.
One: Ukraine could be using a tactic utterly different than anything we’ve seen before in this war. The area where most of this activity is shown is sparsely populated, heavily forested, and crisscrossed by hundreds of farming roads, logging roads, and roads that are little better than goat paths. Ukraine could be using these roads to bypass fortified Russian positions, ignore occupied villages, and just strike directly at Russian units in positions that Russia thought were safely well behind the lines.
Two: This is a sparsely populated, heavily forested area and it could be burning.
The best answer is probably a combination of the above. Based on photographs and scattered reports, it’s clear Ukraine has been trying to take the fight to Russia in the Izyum area. and all those roads in a near-empty area that practically makes a path to the outskirts of the city would be hard to resist as a place to operate under cover and with a lot of freedom of movement. Seriously, take a look.
In Robin Hood terms, this is a Sherwood forest that comes right to the edge of Nottingham. There’s access, there’s cover, there’s everything you might want if you wanted to mount a mobile, fast moving assault on Russian positions without trying to lock down villages or expressly hold territory.
There are almost certainly fires in the woods west of Izyum. But it seems extremely likely that no one is fighting those fires, because they’re too busy with the fire fight.
