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Moving to FL

Marylovesthelions

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Sep 29, 2008
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Mt Dora FL
New development in old orchard overlooking Lake Dora in Mt Dora FL. $185,000 for 6,000 Sq ft lot. There will be 27 homes. This is about 1 mile from my home. I used to walk thru during blossom time on my way down town.
Recommendation: wait, IMHO there is a very big crash coming.
 
Wait to buy lot or wait to build house?
The issue to buy right now is conditional upon the market. you know the old adage: location, location, LOCATION. In Ohio, we've never had the big growth so we typically don't experience a big drop. Plus, wealthy people don't really care as much about the economy if the house is $600k+.

The challenge today is supply, both for materials and workers. There is going to be a shortage of new/refurbished homes over the next 18 months. And, right now, it looks like the economy is holding. So with the economy holding and supply being a problem, and recognizing the law of supply and demand, I can see home assets increasing for new/refurbished toward the mid or end of next year.

 
Wait to buy lot or wait to build house?
Both. IMHO with interest rates up over 100%, and hone prices up up 300%, plus a predicted major recession, prices will drop like they did after the Bush disaster. I bought at the bottom, $85,900 at 3.4% interest. Value is now about $300,000.
 
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The issue to buy right now is conditional upon the market. you know the old adage: location, location, LOCATION. In Ohio, we've never had the big growth so we typically don't experience a big drop. Plus, wealthy people don't really care as much about the economy if the house is $600k+.

The challenge today is supply, both for materials and workers. There is going to be a shortage of new/refurbished homes over the next 18 months. And, right now, it looks like the economy is holding. So with the economy holding and supply being a problem, and recognizing the law of supply and demand, I can see home assets increasing for new/refurbished toward the mid or end of next year.

Disagree. Interest rates have added hundreds of $/ no to mortgage payments. Economy will not hold. P Dimentia plans to double down on lowering energy production. That and inflation, doom any recovery.
 
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Disagree. Interest rates have added hundreds of $/ no to mortgage payments. Economy will not hold. P Dimentia plans to double down on lowering energy production. That and inflation, doom any recovery.
I don't disagree but the wealthy don't care. Why? Wealthy people have the assets to buy homes outright but choose mortgages because much of the interest is deductible (cutting the real rate by 40%) and they can invest that cash in other things to make money.

So if I choose between cash or loan on a $500k home, I can get 6.5% apr. That is effectively ~ 4.5% after taxes. Most people feel that they can get more than that in the stock market or other investments. Obviously, not recently, but over time. Since these loans are in the 15 to 20 year range, you are looking at it over the long run.
 
Homes in my neighborhood SE PA sell before the sign goes up - crazy and townhouse being but are going for over $600K - don’t see how you will ever make money at that price but the sell really fast- glad I bought a long time ago couldn’t afford the prices now.
 
The issue to buy right now is conditional upon the market. you know the old adage: location, location, LOCATION. In Ohio, we've never had the big growth so we typically don't experience a big drop. Plus, wealthy people don't really care as much about the economy if the house is $600k+.

The challenge today is supply, both for materials and workers. There is going to be a shortage of new/refurbished homes over the next 18 months. And, right now, it looks like the economy is holding. So with the economy holding and supply being a problem, and recognizing the law of supply and demand, I can see home assets increasing for new/refurbished toward the mid or end of next year.

The problem is that there are still fewer workers right now than the peak before the plandemic. The labor participation rate has declined and worse yet, the massive amount of job openings has been eroding. It's a damned good thing we started with so many openings when inflation was "transitory" or we'd be underwater now.

You have high paying tech jobs getting gutted right now. Between that and inflation + mortgage rate spikes taking away the dream for first time home buyers, the real estate market is under attack right now. Of course, that market varies considerably by location.
 
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There is still a significant influx of people into Florida which should mitigate some of the risk of a downturn in the market, both in price and value. In areas that are rapidly growing the market may soften but I would not think it would collapse. In areas that have a slower growth rate it may be more of a risk. Once the Fed stops driving the interest rates higher, then the market forces will take over again.

In my neighborhood the average price is about $60K to $70K more than it was four years ago and any house put on the market lasts about a week before a pending sign shows up. Sometimes just a day or two.

.2 acres makes for very little yard work.
 
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Don’t forget you may need a second mortgage to pay for homeowners insurance.
 
Ya. That’s gonna really leave a mark next year about this time when it’s time to renew my flood and homeowners policies
I live in Mount Dora, one of the most desirable communities in Florida. I live very comfortably on $2800 a month with about $800 a month surplus in income over expenses.
 
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I live in Mount Dora, one of the most desirable communities in Florida. I live very comfortably on $2800 a month with about $800 a month surplus in income over expenses.
I live in ft myers bonita springs areas. Unfortunately I couldn’t touch those numbers. This area has really grown over the last 10-15 years.


I just took a minute to look at places for sale in your area. I was surprised at how pricy they were especially after the numbers you posted. You must have bought a long time ago. Good for you Mary.
 
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I live in ft myers bonita springs areas. Unfortunately I couldn’t touch those numbers. This area has really grown over the last 10-15 years.


I just took a minute to look at places for sale in your area. I was surprised at how pricy they were especially after the numbers you posted. You must have bought a long time ago. Good for you Mary.
I bought 10 years ago at the bottom of the market. 3 years ago, I took $60,000 at 3 2% for repairs and pay off all bills. I pay $970/mo on a $300,000 home. I tithe and give 4% to offerings for veterans and guys that minister to black teens. God's wats are best ways.
 
I don't disagree but the wealthy don't care. Why? Wealthy people have the assets to buy homes outright but choose mortgages because much of the interest is deductible (cutting the real rate by 40%) and they can invest that cash in other things to make money.

So if I choose between cash or loan on a $500k home, I can get 6.5% apr. That is effectively ~ 4.5% after taxes. Most people feel that they can get more than that in the stock market or other investments. Obviously, not recently, but over time. Since these loans are in the 15 to 20 year range, you are looking at it over the long run.
Wealthy people didn't get there by buying at the top of the market.
 
Wealthy people didn't get there by buying at the top of the market
Agreed but sometimes you don’t have a choice. We sold two high end houses and one was bought by a couple who transferred and the wife made $150k per month. The other paid cash for his twentyish daughter to get her to move back home during COVID
 
Agreed but sometimes you don’t have a choice. We sold two high end houses and one was bought by a couple who transferred and the wife made $150k per month. The other paid cash for his twentyish daughter to get her to move back home during COVID
I guess it depends on what you mean by rich. Florida housing has become unaffordable for many people in the last 6 years. I don't know the whole state but a new 2,500 Sq ft home in a nice community goes for about $1.3 million in southeast and southwest Florida. Maybe slightly less in Tampa but not much.

I think it's less expensive around Orlando. Not sure about the panhandle or Jacksonville area.
 
Wealthy people didn't get there by buying at the top of the market.

The real estate market is just like the stock market. Mary's neighborhood is like a dividend-paying energy company. My area is going to be like a biotech stock. Values went up significantly but I think they go down in the next recession and stay down for a long time.

I agree with @bdgan. The rich buy low and sell high. In my view there was a real estate rush that went far beyond your average citizen home buying. This was driven by free money. Corporates bought real estate assets with borrowed money at ultra low interest. Balance sheets overall were sured up too in the same manner, and at a time when the reverse should have occurred.

This was a colossal screw up by central banks, and society is going to pay for it. Someone always pays. Nothing is truly free. Someone has to pay for those asset acquisitions and inflated prices.

I have a pension. As a 65 year old I am paying by having my pension's purchasing power devalued. That's money I needed to cover three decades. Others are being hit in other ways. My mother's mutual fund -- which would be bond heavy -- is surely much lower than it was pre pandemic. Old people are getting squeezed just like workers, perhaps worse.

I was truly amazed and shocked by what the central banks did, even after ("transitory") inflation was well established. Powell was rather nonchalant during the early days of the pandemic in saying that the bank wanted people to be able to get loans. When asset prices crossed pre-pandemic levels he needed to stop. He didn't and Congress kept spending. Now we will pay for it. Nothing is free.

These real estate prices are unsustainable without the onset of considerable wage inflation. The Fed is now in a pinch of their own making. They are even being forced to oppose what Congress wants to do, which is to spend more on wars and infrastructure. This problem is occurring in other countries as well. Great Britain has a financial fiscal/monetary conflict problem in spades. Western governments and their central banks moved in concert during the pandemic.
 
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