I just realized that I never posted my detailed Oscar picks. My apologies for never writing them up or posting them.
I don't have a lot of time, so here's my condensed version.
Best Picture
Nominees
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Max Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
Not a picture that screams out that it's the obvious pick. I saw each of them this past year, and enjoyed each of them. The Big Short was a clever presentation of a complicated subject. Bridge of Spies was based on a true story, and while a little slow at times, it was a good representation of the times and the main players in the drama. Brooklyn was an excellent look at immigrants in America, as well as female immigrant breaking out of the mold of her native Ireland. Max Max: Fury Road was a clever advancement of the Max Max story. The Martian was a nice combo of personal drama and scientific speculation on issues that might arise in future planetary exploration. The Revenant was a well filmed historical novel. It's based on some true events, but takes a lot of liberties with the facts. Room was an illuminating and shocking take on how strong people can be to survive, and also how difficult it can be to recover from savage treatment. Spotlight was a nice take on the Boston Globe's expose on abuse by priests within the Boston Archdiocese.
I don't have a favorite. IMHO, Spotlight, Room, Brooklyn, and The Big Short would all be worthy of winning the Oscar. My prediction is that The Revenant will win, but I'll be rooting for The Big Short to take the Oscar.
Best Director
Nominees
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Abrahamson did an amazing job in a very small space with Room. McKay injected humor at interesting times to help explain The Big Short. Inarritu had stunning scenery and action scenes in The Revenant. Miller spent years working to come up with a masterful extension to the Mad Max saga.
IMHO, I think McKay deserves the award, with Miller a close second. My prediction is that Inarritu will win the award, and be the first back-to-back winner of the award since '49-'50.
Best Actor
Nominees
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
A lot of excellent performances listed above. Most would be worthy of the award. I'd be stunned if anyone other than DiCaprio won the Oscar.
Best Actress
Nominees
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett gave a great performance in Carol. That said, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan, IMHO, gave the two best performances. I'd be happy to see either of them get the award, but my prediction is that Brie Larson wins the Oscar
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Tom Hardy, The Revenant
- Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
This is a tough one. Stallone, Rylance, Ruffalo, and Bale all gave performances that are worthy of the award. I walked out of Creed thinking Stallone would win best supporting actor, and out of Bridge of Spies thinking Rylance would win best supporting actor. I still feel both are worthy. In thinking about this award since the nominations were announced, I keep thinking about Ruffalo's performance in Spotlight. I think the voting will be close on this award, but the Oscar will go to Rylance, though if left to me I'd likely give it to Stallone.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
A bit of a controversy here, in that Vikander and Mara appeared on the screen more than 60% of the time in their respective performances. They really should have been in the Best Actress categories, but the studios for the respective movies campaigned for them to be considered for Best Supporting Actress.
McAdams was captivating in Spotlight. That said, I think this is a three-lady race between Vikander, Winslet, and Mara. I predict the Oscar will go to Vikander, but would not be disappointed if it went to Winslet or Mara.
I usually skip most of the other awards when making predictions. Every few years I do make a prediction in Best Foreign-Language Film
Best Foreign-Language Film
Nominees
- Embrace of the Serpent
- Mustang
- Son of Saul
- Theeb
- A War
IMHO, Son of Saul is the clear favorite, and should win the Oscar. Mustang is probably its biggest competition, but I don't think it's as good of a film as Son of Saul.
So that's my quick analysis and predictions for the 2016 Oscars.
I don't have a lot of time, so here's my condensed version.
Best Picture
Nominees
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Max Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
Not a picture that screams out that it's the obvious pick. I saw each of them this past year, and enjoyed each of them. The Big Short was a clever presentation of a complicated subject. Bridge of Spies was based on a true story, and while a little slow at times, it was a good representation of the times and the main players in the drama. Brooklyn was an excellent look at immigrants in America, as well as female immigrant breaking out of the mold of her native Ireland. Max Max: Fury Road was a clever advancement of the Max Max story. The Martian was a nice combo of personal drama and scientific speculation on issues that might arise in future planetary exploration. The Revenant was a well filmed historical novel. It's based on some true events, but takes a lot of liberties with the facts. Room was an illuminating and shocking take on how strong people can be to survive, and also how difficult it can be to recover from savage treatment. Spotlight was a nice take on the Boston Globe's expose on abuse by priests within the Boston Archdiocese.
I don't have a favorite. IMHO, Spotlight, Room, Brooklyn, and The Big Short would all be worthy of winning the Oscar. My prediction is that The Revenant will win, but I'll be rooting for The Big Short to take the Oscar.
Best Director
Nominees
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Abrahamson did an amazing job in a very small space with Room. McKay injected humor at interesting times to help explain The Big Short. Inarritu had stunning scenery and action scenes in The Revenant. Miller spent years working to come up with a masterful extension to the Mad Max saga.
IMHO, I think McKay deserves the award, with Miller a close second. My prediction is that Inarritu will win the award, and be the first back-to-back winner of the award since '49-'50.
Best Actor
Nominees
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
A lot of excellent performances listed above. Most would be worthy of the award. I'd be stunned if anyone other than DiCaprio won the Oscar.
Best Actress
Nominees
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett gave a great performance in Carol. That said, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan, IMHO, gave the two best performances. I'd be happy to see either of them get the award, but my prediction is that Brie Larson wins the Oscar
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Tom Hardy, The Revenant
- Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
This is a tough one. Stallone, Rylance, Ruffalo, and Bale all gave performances that are worthy of the award. I walked out of Creed thinking Stallone would win best supporting actor, and out of Bridge of Spies thinking Rylance would win best supporting actor. I still feel both are worthy. In thinking about this award since the nominations were announced, I keep thinking about Ruffalo's performance in Spotlight. I think the voting will be close on this award, but the Oscar will go to Rylance, though if left to me I'd likely give it to Stallone.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
A bit of a controversy here, in that Vikander and Mara appeared on the screen more than 60% of the time in their respective performances. They really should have been in the Best Actress categories, but the studios for the respective movies campaigned for them to be considered for Best Supporting Actress.
McAdams was captivating in Spotlight. That said, I think this is a three-lady race between Vikander, Winslet, and Mara. I predict the Oscar will go to Vikander, but would not be disappointed if it went to Winslet or Mara.
I usually skip most of the other awards when making predictions. Every few years I do make a prediction in Best Foreign-Language Film
Best Foreign-Language Film
Nominees
- Embrace of the Serpent
- Mustang
- Son of Saul
- Theeb
- A War
IMHO, Son of Saul is the clear favorite, and should win the Oscar. Mustang is probably its biggest competition, but I don't think it's as good of a film as Son of Saul.
So that's my quick analysis and predictions for the 2016 Oscars.