One 9-3 team will make the playoff; PSU will be that team if...

[africamurphy]

Pundits who extrapolate the past dozen or so seasons with how our new playoff system would have played out with past rankings agree that most years a 9-3 team would make the field. We've all heard ad nauseum how Franklin's litany of 10-2 finishes would have earned him more 12-team playoff bids than any other non-playoff teams of the 4-team playoff era.

What will it take for us to get that bid this year?

1. Our 3 losses will need to be against top 15 teams. Ohio State is an obvious one. Will Washington be able to replicate last year's success? Will USC take steps forward? Wisconsin? Those three are really the only obvious candidates for top 15 type seasons to make our 3 losses respectable. If we lose all of them close, but look incredible in our 9 wins, and the Big Ten overall gets national respect, then that would make our resume plausible.

2. The SEC would need to have some strong 10-2 teams but no 9-3 teams to compare with us. And in a similar vein, the Big 12 and ACC would have to have 11-1 teams (or better) but no 10-2 teams with strong resumes to compare with us.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Pundits who extrapolate the past dozen or so seasons with how our new playoff system would have played out with past rankings agree that most years a 9-3 team would make the field. We've all heard ad nauseum how Franklin's litany of 10-2 finishes would have earned him more 12-team playoff bids than any other non-playoff teams of the 4-team playoff era.

What will it take for us to get that bid this year?

1. Our 3 losses will need to be against top 15 teams. Ohio State is an obvious one. Will Washington be able to replicate last year's success? Will USC take steps forward? Wisconsin? Those three are really the only obvious candidates for top 15 type seasons to make our 3 losses respectable. If we lose all of them close, but look incredible in our 9 wins, and the Big Ten overall gets national respect, then that would make our resume plausible.

2. The SEC would need to have some strong 10-2 teams but no 9-3 teams to compare with us. And in a similar vein, the Big 12 and ACC would have to have 11-1 teams (or better) but no 10-2 teams with strong resumes to compare with us.

We go 9-3…. We Are out.

And if we go 9-3 we don’t deserve a spot.

 

[RickinDayton]

We go 9-3…. We Are out.

And if we go 9-3 we don’t deserve a spot.

Agree.

 

[voltz99]

We go 9-3…. We Are out.

And if we go 9-3 we don’t deserve a spot.

Spoken like a hater.

12 teams don't always have 10+ wins. Do you think the committee will leave last spots vacant?

 

[Obliviax]

Spoken like a hater.

12 teams don't always have 10+ wins. Do you think the committee will leave last spots vacant?

This looks like @The Spin Meister

 

[The Spin Meister]

This looks like @The Spin Meister

Don’t be doxing me, dude!🤬

 

[voltz99]

Don’t be doxing me, dude!🤬

You didn't answer he question. If 10, 11 and 12 are 9-3 then who should get in? 13, 14 and 15?

 

[LandoComando]

You didn't answer he question. If 10, 11 and 12 are 9-3 then who should get in? 13, 14 and 15?

The 9-3 teams with the best wins and best losses. Could that be us? Maybe...
But we have no clue how they'll rank teams. I think 10-2 Big Ten or SEC will be a lock. Not sure how many 9-3 teams get in. I expect nine 10+ win teams plus the winners of the ACC Big XII and highest rated G5 team.

 

[africamurphy]

We're moving into a new era where the smallest number in the loss column won't matter as much at the end of the day.

There's the big 2.
There's the ACC and Big 12.
And then there's the rest.

It began last year when a 13-0 FSU team was left out for a 1-loss Bama and Texas.

This year, a 9-3 SEC or Big 10 team will get in ahead of a 10-2 ACC or Big 12 team. GUARANTEED.

Why so confident? Because a 9-3 team would have gotten in every playoff but 1 if this system were in place the past 2 decades.

 

[The Spin Meister]

You didn't answer he question. If 10, 11 and 12 are 9-3 then who should get in? 13, 14 and 15?

Because they will take a 9-3 SEC team ahead of us. Or a 9-3 Notre Dame. Or even USC, Oregon, or Washington to get the west coast market .

 

[voltz99]

Because they will take a 9-3 SEC team ahead of us. Or a 9-3 Notre Dame. Or even USC, Oregon, or Washington to get the west coast market .

Ok. 9-3 teams can make the playoffs as long as it is not PSU.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Ok. 9-3 teams can make the playoffs as long as it is not PSU.

Why do you feel a compulsion to argue over every minutia? I gave my opinion. Agree or disagree. I don’t care.

 

[LandoComando]

Because they will take a 9-3 SEC team ahead of us. Or a 9-3 Notre Dame. Or even USC, Oregon, or Washington to get the west coast market .

They aren't taking a team based on a "market"
They'll take the SEC or Big Ten team they feel has the best resume.

 

[GSL]

If PSU goes 9-3, they will not have beaten even one team with a pulse. Franklin’s record has been developed basis winning against the little sisters of the poor and losing to any quality teams on the schedule. Just look at the OOC schedule. P

 

[LandoComando]

If PSU goes 9-3, they will not have beaten even one team with a pulse. Franklin’s record has been developed basis winning against the little sisters of the poor and losing to any quality teams on the schedule. Just look at the OOC schedule. P

Which is the problem with our non-conference schedule. For example, the loser of Michigan-Texas won't be penalized and if we have the same record as them we're in trouble

 

[JWB389]

One thing I’ve learned being a Penn State fan for 45 years. We need to be better than the anticipated floor in order to get recognition. If a 9-3 team is getting in, it ain’t us. We need to be 10-2 or better. We’re not getting the benefit of the doubt.

 

[ryoder1]

If we finish 9-3 it will mean the best teams we beat are probably Washington and WVU. Losses to OSU, USC and Wisky is my guess. We would be very lucky to sneak in under that scenario because I don't see Wisky top 15. Say we beat Wisky but lose to Washington I still don't see Washington top 15. That's a rough way to go and would set us up for a definite loss in the first round if we were so lucky to get in.

 

[africamurphy]

Yeah, a 9-3 team is going to be the #10 or #11 seed for sure and have a rough first round road game...

WVU on the road might end up being a quality win (or...welp...loss...) if they can go 9-3 or 10-2 in the Big 12. I kinda overlooked them.

 

[The Spin Meister]

If we finish 9-3 it will mean the best teams we beat are probably Washington and WVU. Losses to OSU, USC and Wisky is my guess. We would be very lucky to sneak in under that scenario because I don't see Wisky top 15. Say we beat Wisky but lose to Washington I still don't see Washington top 15. That's a rough way to go and would set us up for a definite loss in the first round if we were so lucky to get in.

There will likely be five or more teams at 9-3. Probably that many at 10-2. In that scenario we aren’t gettin’ invited.

 

[LandoComando]

Why are people worried about "what happens if we go 9-3"? We have a great schedule to win 10 or 11 games and a team very capable of doing so. Worry about 9-3 when it happens but if it does and we're left out it will be because of that "great schedule to win 10 or 11 games"

 

[SR108]

Pundits who extrapolate the past dozen or so seasons with how our new playoff system would have played out with past rankings agree that most years a 9-3 team would make the field. We've all heard ad nauseum how Franklin's litany of 10-2 finishes would have earned him more 12-team playoff bids than any other non-playoff teams of the 4-team playoff era.

What will it take for us to get that bid this year?

1. Our 3 losses will need to be against top 15 teams. Ohio State is an obvious one. Will Washington be able to replicate last year's success? Will USC take steps forward? Wisconsin? Those three are really the only obvious candidates for top 15 type seasons to make our 3 losses respectable. If we lose all of them close, but look incredible in our 9 wins, and the Big Ten overall gets national respect, then that would make our resume plausible.

2. The SEC would need to have some strong 10-2 teams but no 9-3 teams to compare with us. And in a similar vein, the Big 12 and ACC would have to have 11-1 teams (or better) but no 10-2 teams with strong resumes to compare with us.

If we lose 3 games we don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

 

[fastlax16]

Yeah, a 9-3 team is going to be the #10 or #11 seed for sure and have a rough first round road game...

WVU on the road might end up being a quality win (or...welp...loss...) if they can go 9-3 or 10-2 in the Big 12. I kinda overlooked them.

WVU won 9 games last year and most still considered them a garbage win so I wouldn’t hold my breath.