One Idiot's Outlook for NCAAs

[PA Power]

125 - 0 points

This one is pretty straight forward. Even if the Carson Kuhn transfer is a real thing, he wins maybe 1 match at nationals if he can even manage to qualify.

133 - 1-2 points

Keener is what he is. Anyone thinking he was going to make some giant jump in the PSU room at this stage of his career was sorely mistaken. He's a hard worker and a solid competitor but he's not All-American caliber. Might go 2-2 at best.

141 - 6-8 points

I have been critical of Cortez, but given his injury today combined with the fact that Nick Lee is waiting in the wings, I have to imagine that we are going to free the Lee. Assuming we do, I think he could potentially finish top 8, but this is a VERY deep weight class. His offense is great but his loss to Zacherl, who is solid but not an All-American, is a bit concerning.

149 - 27 points

Don't need to discuss this one too much.

157 - 27 points

See 149.

165 - 17 points

I might be in the minority on this but I think I-Mar will get his revenge this year. I hope that's not the case but I could definitely see it happening. Hopefully whatever was ailing Cenzo earlier in the year is not bothering him anymore. He makes the finals and then I have no idea what the hell will happen.

174 - 18 points

Very similar to 165 in my mind. I see Hall making the finals and wrestling a toss up match with Valencia. Zahid has just looked awesome this year so I don't feel confident in banking 174 as a definite title.

184 - 25 points

Similar to 149, 157 but with the potential threat of an improved Myles Martin looming in the finals. I think Bo will get it done and bonus everyone except Martin along the way.

197 - 6-8 points

Cassar has looked like he could be a top 8 guy at probably the weakest weight in the NCAA this year. He also lost to Garrett Hoffman and has looked sluggish at times so I really have no idea what to expect.

285 - 10 points

With all due respect to Nick, he has looked worse this year. I don't know if it's the extra poundage he's carrying, but his offense has totally disappeared. I see him placing 5/6 assuming he doesn't suffer an upset at the hands of someone like a Boykin from NC State, which I was never really worried about until today.

Adding up all of those points, I end up with about 140 total. That might be enough to beat Ohio State. It might not. It's going to depend on Tomasello's health, Bo Jordan vs Mark Hall, Myles Martin vs Bo Nickal, and how well guys like Hayes, Pletcher, and Campbell show up at the big dance.

Can't wait.

 

[Ban Basketball]

Tomasello's health

I'm sure that people have been talking about this forever, but I don't quite stay in the loop as diligently these days as I once did, so I'll ask it here. Is Tomasello's issue one of health, or one of a brutal weight cut to get to and maintain 125? I ask because he looked enormous last year at 133, so I can only guess that 125 has to be some kind of "task," to put it lightly.

 

[PAgeologist]

I'm sure that people have been talking about this forever, but I don't quite stay in the loop as diligently these days as I once did, so I'll ask it here. Is Tomasello's issue one of health, or one of a brutal weight cut to get to and maintain 125? I ask because he looked enormous last year at 133, so I can only guess that 125 has to be some kind of "task," to put it lightly.

Short answer IMO is yes to all the above. I think his injury combined with the weight cut will greatly affect him come March.

 

[El-Jefe]

I'm sure that people have been talking about this forever, but I don't quite stay in the loop as diligently these days as I once did, so I'll ask it here. Is Tomasello's issue one of health, or one of a brutal weight cut to get to and maintain 125? I ask because he looked enormous last year at 133, so I can only guess that 125 has to be some kind of "task," to put it lightly.

Health until he actually wrestles, and then weight.

He was supposed to return sometime this month, though that projection was at the beginning of the season and hasn't been re-statused since.

 

[Ban Basketball]

Health until he actually wrestles, and then weight.

He was supposed to return sometime this month, though that projection was at the beginning of the season and hasn't been re-statused since.

I just hope it doesn't end up being one of those Travis Shufelt repeats from many years ago, when he went the entire season injured and didn't rassle until tournament time came. He basically ended up wasting someone else's spot to rassle and had zero bidness trying to even rassle at that point.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

125 - 0 points

This one is pretty straight forward. Even if the Carson Kuhn transfer is a real thing, he wins maybe 1 match at nationals if he can even manage to qualify.

133 - 1-2 points

Keener is what he is. Anyone thinking he was going to make some giant jump in the PSU room at this stage of his career was sorely mistaken. He's a hard worker and a solid competitor but he's not All-American caliber. Might go 2-2 at best.

141 - 6-8 points

I have been critical of Cortez, but given his injury today combined with the fact that Nick Lee is waiting in the wings, I have to imagine that we are going to free the Lee. Assuming we do, I think he could potentially finish top 8, but this is a VERY deep weight class. His offense is great but his loss to Zacherl, who is solid but not an All-American, is a bit concerning.

149 - 27 points

Don't need to discuss this one too much.

157 - 27 points

See 149.

165 - 17 points

I might be in the minority on this but I think I-Mar will get his revenge this year. I hope that's not the case but I could definitely see it happening. Hopefully whatever was ailing Cenzo earlier in the year is not bothering him anymore. He makes the finals and then I have no idea what the hell will happen.

174 - 18 points

Very similar to 165 in my mind. I see Hall making the finals and wrestling a toss up match with Valencia. Zahid has just looked awesome this year so I don't feel confident in banking 174 as a definite title.

184 - 25 points

Similar to 149, 157 but with the potential threat of an improved Myles Martin looming in the finals. I think Bo will get it done and bonus everyone except Martin along the way.

197 - 6-8 points

Cassar has looked like he could be a top 8 guy at probably the weakest weight in the NCAA this year. He also lost to Garrett Hoffman and has looked sluggish at times so I really have no idea what to expect.

285 - 10 points

With all due respect to Nick, he has looked worse this year. I don't know if it's the extra poundage he's carrying, but his offense has totally disappeared. I see him placing 5/6 assuming he doesn't suffer an upset at the hands of someone like a Boykin from NC State, which I was never really worried about until today.

Adding up all of those points, I end up with about 140 total. That might be enough to beat Ohio State. It might not. It's going to depend on Tomasello's health, Bo Jordan vs Mark Hall, Myles Martin vs Bo Nickal, and how well guys like Hayes, Pletcher, and Campbell show up at the big dance.

Can't wait.

When did Cassar lose to Gavin Hoffman, who is a senior in high school?

You might be thinking of PSU recruit Mike Beard, who lost to Hoffman at a preseason all star event.

 

[nitlion6]

When did Cassar lose to Gavin Hoffman, who is a senior in high school?

You might be thinking of PSU recruit Mike Beard, who lost to Hoffman at a preseason all star event.

Gavin's brother, Garrett, wrestles for Bucknell at 197 and beat Anthony in the dual meet in November.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Gavin's brother, Garrett, wrestles for Bucknell at 197 and beat Anthony in the dual meet in November.

Gotcha; my mistake.

 

[lionlover]

Gotcha; my mistake.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

I like our chances at 140 points. Will take that total every year. tOSU will be a challenge but they have to wrestle up to their potential too and that's not something they have consistently done.

 

[dunkej01]

Ill take 140 as our point floor any day.

I also think the brackets that would be drawn today for tO$U will be much different after Bigs.

125 discussed
133 is hanging in and winning close is that an issue?
141 which guy is he in march the AA or the non AA (in a really tough field)
149 FR issues a weight to high, can he get off bottom
157 can he get off bottom
165 is the sPitt washed off by march

 

[El-Jefe]

Ill take 140 as our point floor any day.

I also think the brackets that would be drawn today for tO$U will be much different after Bigs.

125 discussed
133 is hanging in and winning close is that an issue?
141 which guy is he in march the AA or the non AA (in a really tough field)
149 FR issues a weight to high, can he get off bottom
157 can he get off bottom
165 is the sPitt washed off by march

If Tsirtsis beats out Maruca and ends up in Hayes' side of the bracket, that's real bad news for Ryan. Hard to see Hayes winning a T-shirt zero takedown special.

 

[jrd23psu]

I agree with you on most points, however Cenzo has looked like he's recovered from whatever it was that was ailing him at the Scuffle. I think he has a better chance of winning it this year than last year, although we'll see if Chance Marsteller is a real player at 165lbs today.

I think the real X factor here could be Keener. I have really, really liked what I've seen out of him this year, and so far he's been attacking, attacking, attacking. He's capable of putting up bonus.

Then there is the loss yesterday to a backup and it makes me do a 180 on him. In the end I'm not expecting Keener to be a factor at NCAAs and whether PSU wins again this year.

What I do know is that PSU always shows up at NCAAs. OSU showed up two years ago but they don't always show up. Their guys are going to have wrestle a perfect tournament to beat PSU. They can do it, but it will be tough.

 

[dicemen99]

I agree with you on most points, however Cenzo has looked like he's recovered from whatever it was that was ailing him at the Scuffle. I think he has a better chance of winning it this year than last year, although we'll see if Chance Marsteller is a real player at 165lbs today.

I think the real X factor here could be Keener. I have really, really liked what I've seen out of him this year, and so far he's been attacking, attacking, attacking. He's capable of putting up bonus.

Then there is the loss yesterday to a backup and it makes me do a 180 on him. In the end I'm not expecting Keener to be a factor at NCAAs and whether PSU wins again this year.

What I do know is that PSU always shows up at NCAAs. OSU showed up two years ago but they don't always show up. Their guys are going to have wrestle a perfect tournament to beat PSU. They can do it, but it will be tough.

I'm expecting Keener to do what I always expected him to do. Qualify for nationals and win 1-3 matches depending on his bracket. I think anyone expecting an AA out of him after he has a track record going back five years was being unrealistic.

If anything Keener's stock has risen for me this year because he has shown that when he gets that win or two he can possibly get it with bonus and a good chance it will be by fall.

The loss to GWH yesterday didn't bother me at all. GWH looked really good yesterday, Keener getting ridden was not indicative of a problem on bottom, more so that GWH was really good on top in that match. Sometimes you need to tip your cap to your opponent. Both TDs came off Keener activity, with one being a big risk/reward move that he almost pulled off. I saw Keener hit two mixers and a headlock yesterday. He's really dangerous with them and was a tick away from pulling it off against GWH. Keep them coming.