Onward State previews PSU's seniors
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
The recruiting class of 2012 comes into full power.
Reference: 2014 #1, 2013 #7, 2012 #17, 2011 #4, 2010 #2, 2009 #8
PSU details:
Top Recruit: (125) #3 Jimmy Gulibon-Derry, PA
Recruiting Class: (174/184) #62 Wes Phipps-Grove City, PA; (141) Zack Beitz-Juniata, PA
Transfer: (285) #22 2010 Jimmy Lawson-Manchester, NJ
Reference: 2014 #1, 2013 #7, 2012 #17, 2011 #4, 2010 #2, 2009 #8
PSU details:
Top Recruit: (125) #3 Jimmy Gulibon-Derry, PA
Recruiting Class: (174/184) #62 Wes Phipps-Grove City, PA; (141) Zack Beitz-Juniata, PA
Transfer: (285) #22 2010 Jimmy Lawson-Manchester, NJ
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Not sure what FM is saying. He does note that this Sr class was the lowest ranked from 2009-2014 for PSU. We already have 2 AA's from that class--Gulibon and Lawson. It is interesting to see how many teams' top recruits didn't pan out for one reason or another!
Always interesting to look back at recruiting classes. Here were the top nine recruits in 2012:
#1 Jason Tsirtsis
#2 Taylor Massa
#3 Jimmy G
#4 Jordan Rogers
#5 John Meeks
#6 Alex Cisneros
#7 Mark Grey
#8 Doug Vollaro
#9 Nikko Reyes
It is pretty amazing how on average half of the overall top ten recruits for any given year fail to AA even once in college. Not sure who #10 was but 2012 appears to be even below that average with only Tsirtsis and Jimmy G being AAs with one year left.
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Here is the entire list: http://www.d1collegewrestling.net/Top200_2012.html
#10 attended a lower division school.
Some notable successes below the top 10 (Dean, GIlman, Clark, Realbuto, Jordan, Dudley). But this class is a cautionary tale about recruiting rankings, and also about the fallacy of considering all recruiting classes as equals.
10-27 looks better than 1 thru 9, some very familiar names here.
10.Devin Peterson Wisconsin Rapids WI 197 Iowa Western
11. Brian Realbuto Somers NY 149 Cornell
12. Joey Davis Santa Fe CA 165 Notre Dame (OH)
13. Zane Richards Carbondale IL 133 Illinois
14. Kyle Crutchmer Tulsa OK 174 Oklahoma State
15. Nate Skonieczny Akron OH 149 Iowa
16. Thomas Gilman Council Bluffs IA 133 Iowa
17. George DiCamillo Highland Heights OH 125 Virginia
18. Rossi Bruno Brandon FL 133 Michigan
19. Zac Brunson Eugene OR 174 Illinois
20. Sam Brooks Oak Park IL 197 Iowa
21. Mitch Minotti Easton PA 157 Lehigh
22. Michael Kroells Scott West MN 285 Minnesota
23. Cory Clark Polk IA 125 Iowa
24. Tim Dudley Irmo SC 184 Nebraska
25. Randy Cruz Bethlehem PA 133 Lehigh
26. Max Schneider Chicago IL 157 Cal Poly
27. Isaac Jordan St. Paris OH 165 Wisconsin
10.Devin Peterson Wisconsin Rapids WI 197 Iowa Western
11. Brian Realbuto Somers NY 149 Cornell
12. Joey Davis Santa Fe CA 165 Notre Dame (OH)
13. Zane Richards Carbondale IL 133 Illinois
14. Kyle Crutchmer Tulsa OK 174 Oklahoma State
15. Nate Skonieczny Akron OH 149 Iowa
16. Thomas Gilman Council Bluffs IA 133 Iowa
17. George DiCamillo Highland Heights OH 125 Virginia
18. Rossi Bruno Brandon FL 133 Michigan
19. Zac Brunson Eugene OR 174 Illinois
20. Sam Brooks Oak Park IL 197 Iowa
21. Mitch Minotti Easton PA 157 Lehigh
22. Michael Kroells Scott West MN 285 Minnesota
23. Cory Clark Polk IA 125 Iowa
24. Tim Dudley Irmo SC 184 Nebraska
25. Randy Cruz Bethlehem PA 133 Lehigh
26. Max Schneider Chicago IL 157 Cal Poly
27. Isaac Jordan St. Paris OH 165 Wisconsin
I have come to the conclusion that picking future AAs while they are still in HS is very similar to picking good stocks. If you do your research well, you might increase your chances if you are lucky enough that other factors that you did not consider don't have much effect. In other words, there is still a significant random element that cannot be eliminated. Picking future AAs does not seem to be much different.
No rhyme, no reason. That's why you don't put a lot of time in potential because they all have it. Top 25 is what I always look at and top five in weight class. State is important, too.
No doubt about the effect of the state where the wrestler competed in HS. There are about a half dozen states that produce a significantly higher number of AAs compared to the rest of the US.
One interesting case in point. Jordan Rogers spent all four of his HS years in WA and has not met the expectations everyone had of him at Ok State. His younger brother, Chandler, finished his HS career at Stillwater HS in OK, and I think that he is a good bet to AA this year. I think that last year he spent at Stillwater HS helped his college game tremendously.
Several people with whom I've had wrestling blog discussions over the years believe that the biggest difference between the wrestling in the states that produce more AAs compared to the others is the quality of mat wrestling, especially the ability to get off the bottom. I've seen guys who were animals in HS get mauled on the mat in college because they couldn't get away when being ridden.
Agree, i have found that with stocks, as with wrestling, alot of the random is taken out with picking quality leadership which surely isn't lacking at Penn State.
Mary L. Little comes to mind. Another junior worth a look.
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Yes and no. What you're saying applies to the middle of the pack. The top top people are almost sure things. DT, ER, Zain, Jason came in as sure things, and they are. I think 2012 was a rare exception without a lot of stars. The other side of that is what is a star and how sure are you? Jimmy would have been called a star by most. Nick Nevills, what do you say now, that's a tough one?
It's complicated, but the statistics do show a correlation. For example -- top-10 guys have a higher frequency of success (AA finishes) than 11 through 20, and 11 through 20 have a higher frequency of success than 21 through 30, etc., etc., etc. Did an analysis of this years ago, using top-100 guys over (I think) a period that approached 10 years. The other thing I noticed was the higher up the recruiting rankings, the higher the frequency of high AA finishes (ie. more likely to be a National Champ or Silver Medalist), as well as a higher frequency of multiple AA finishes.
But there is no guarantee, as others above have said. Here's why I think that is;
1) Some kids "peak" at a younger age. This is where the "coach's eye" for talent comes in, and finding the top talent that still has significant upside is key. I believe Cael & Co. does this better than most.
2) Attitude!! College is an entirely different animal than High School, and so much of a recruit's college success lie in the intangibles.
3) Academics. Probably shouldn't be 3rd on my list, but we can't forget the "student" in student-athlete. A professional can focus on their craft. College student-athletes must balance the academic, social, and athletic aspects of their existence. More kids than are known struggle with this.
4) Other. Injuries, bad decisions, family matters, etc. can derail a college wrestling career.
But there is no guarantee, as others above have said. Here's why I think that is;
1) Some kids "peak" at a younger age. This is where the "coach's eye" for talent comes in, and finding the top talent that still has significant upside is key. I believe Cael & Co. does this better than most.
2) Attitude!! College is an entirely different animal than High School, and so much of a recruit's college success lie in the intangibles.
3) Academics. Probably shouldn't be 3rd on my list, but we can't forget the "student" in student-athlete. A professional can focus on their craft. College student-athletes must balance the academic, social, and athletic aspects of their existence. More kids than are known struggle with this.
4) Other. Injuries, bad decisions, family matters, etc. can derail a college wrestling career.
You really think that after a decade or more of wrestling, and competing in regional and national-level events, that one year away from Washington really made that much of a difference to make Chandler Rogers a likely All-American when Jordan Rogers can't break the starting lineup?
Because that doesn't explain a whole host of guys who've done well despite their HS states not being elite -- Bo Nickal (TX), Tim Dudley (SC), Andrew Howe (IN), Travis Lee (HI), Jordan Leen (TN), etc.
What likely helped Chandler Rogers the most was moving specifically to Stillwater and training with the Pokes freestyle club for that year. But even that doesn't explain the disparity between the brothers' college careers.
Bingo!
I'll also point out that focus and commitment account for many (most?) bad decisions and family distractions. Bad decisions typically stem from poor lifestyle choices. And while I'm sympathetic to true family emergencies (like the PSU kicker who transferred to Texas to be nearer his ailing mother in Houston), very few guys have Jordan Oliver's family issues.
Injuries are a whole other animal. They're usually wrestling related and not easily predicted -- short of a recruit posting a video of himself doing Jackass-style stunts.
Actually, I agree with you. Wrestling at Stillwater HS pretty much guarantees you get access to exceptional coaching and workout partners. I was implying that in my statement although I didn't articulate it very well. However, I also think that OK may have a different style of wrestling that helped him along with getting ready for college.
What do you think about my comment on mat wrestling? This subject comes up a lot on a WA wrestling message board. There are several guys who contend that the style of mat wrestling you see in PA and some of the more dominant states gives the wrestlers who compete there an advantage in preparing for college. They claim that a lot of it comes from the way stalling on top is enforced. They may have a point. I've seen kids get hit very quickly with stalling calls where the ref said they weren't trying to improve their position. The problem is, the kids being called did not have very good control in the first place. I think that there are some refs who think it is stalling anytime the top wrestler is riding parallel to the guy on the bottom.
I talked about this with a friend who is originally from WA but was an NCAA champion at Ok State. He thinks that kind of reffing is doing nothing but encouraging a wrestler to adopt bad habits. It also makes it easy for the bottom guy to get out, so they don't learn how to get away from someone who is really tough on top. I know that this might come across as a "blame the ref" attitude, but it does seem that stalling is not enforced the same way in different parts of the country.
There may be some merit to it, but I'm skeptical of it being true very often. We've seen international guys with zero folk experience reach the podium and even win the title. And we've also seen PA natives who couldn't be pried off the mat with a crowbar.
To name 2 of them: who ever would've guessed that Gelogaev (who loathed wrestling on bottom and faced a lot of skilled top stallers) would be better at it than Courts?
I've heard a similar comment about Ohio refs, but David Taylor was fantastic on bottom, and Logan Stieber was a JEDI in all 3 positions as long as he didn't have to deal with the flu, a long bus ride, and average officials..
To name 2 of them: who ever would've guessed that Gelogaev (who loathed wrestling on bottom and faced a lot of skilled top stallers) would be better at it than Courts?
I've heard a similar comment about Ohio refs, but David Taylor was fantastic on bottom, and Logan Stieber was a JEDI in all 3 positions as long as he didn't have to deal with the flu, a long bus ride, and average officials..
