Oscar Preview/Predictions -- Best Picture

[Tom McAndrew]

Nominees:
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the toughest picks I can ever recall. All of the aforementioned were good movies. What makes it difficult is that there wasn't a stand-out movie this year; just a lot of good ones. I saw all of the nominees except for Call Me by Your Name. I'd be pretty surprised if The Post or Phantom Thread were to win, and based on reviews I'd be mildly surprised if Call Me by Your Name were to win. Outside of those three, a good case could be made for any of the nominees. My belief is that it will come down to Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Perhaps by late Sunday afternoon, I'll come up with a pick, but I haven't been able to do so in the past month, so who knows.

Should Win: ??

Will Win: ??

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Nominees:
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the toughest picks I can ever recall. All of the aforementioned were good movies. What makes it difficult is that there wasn't a stand-out movie this year; just a lot of good ones. I saw all of the nominees except for Call Me by Your Name. I'd be pretty surprised if The Post were to win, and based on reviews I'd be mildly surprised if Call Me by Your Name or Phantom Thread were to win. Outside of those the, a good case could be made for any of the nominees. My belief is that it will come down to Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Perhaps by late Sunday afternoon, I'll come up with a pick, but I haven't been able to do so in the past month, so who knows.

Should Win: ??

Will Win: ??

Should: Ladybird
Will: Shape of Water or Get Out

Watch for the loser to pick up wins in directing and/or writing.

 

[wbcincy]

Should: Ladybird
Will: Shape of Water or Get Out

Watch for the loser to pick up wins in directing and/or writing.

Yep, I'm predicting Get Out with the upset to win Best Picture and Del Toro to take director.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Yep, I'm predicting Get Out with the upset to win Best Picture and Del Toro to take director.

Ladybird wins best original screenplay. Done and done.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

Should: Ladybird
Will: Shape of Water or Get Out

Watch for the loser to pick up wins in directing and/or writing.

Could be. Lady Bird was my early pick to win it all. The Shape of Water was the smart pick of a lot of insiders a few weeks ago, and Get Out seems to getting a lot of the late predictions.

 

[BBrown]

Nominees:
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the toughest picks I can ever recall. All of the aforementioned were good movies. What makes it difficult is that there wasn't a stand-out movie this year; just a lot of good ones. I saw all of the nominees except for Call Me by Your Name. I'd be pretty surprised if The Post or Phantom Thread were to win, and based on reviews I'd be mildly surprised if Call Me by Your Name were to win. Outside of those three, a good case could be made for any of the nominees. My belief is that it will come down to Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Perhaps by late Sunday afternoon, I'll come up with a pick, but I haven't been able to do so in the past month, so who knows.

Should Win: ??

Will Win: ??

I've been really lazy this year and have only seen Get out and Call me by your Name. Call me by your Name was BORING. Moonlight was 100x better.
I thought Get Out was very good.

 

[olelion]

The "Academy" likes the world to think that they are for all things good. The "Post" taking on a tyrannical government makes them droll. I'm betting on the post no matter what its merits are/are not.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

I've been really lazy this year and have only seen Get out and Call me by your Name. Call me by your Name was BORING. Moonlight was 100x better.
I thought Get Out was very good.

Hm. Call Me is one of two Best Picture films I am watching this weekend. I haven’t heard it called boring - my initial take is its Brokeback Mountain meets Lolita meets Tuscany.

 

[BBrown]

Hm. Call Me is one of two Best Picture films I am watching this weekend. I haven’t heard it called boring - my initial take is its Brokeback Mountain meets Lolita meets Tuscany.

I didn't like it at all.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

I didn't like it at all.

Pacing? Content? Characters? I heard it’s gorgeous to look at. I’ll report back when I get a chance to watch.

 

[BBrown]

Pacing? Content? Characters? I heard it’s gorgeous to look at. I’ll report back when I get a chance to watch.

Pacing was a big problem for me. I liked the characters and I thought Armie (Sp?) Hammer and Chalamet were very good.
And you know me and cinematography and that is the only reason I sat through it. It is gorgeous and I hope it does get an award for that.
Just thought it was slow and didn't move in the direction I wanted it too...hmm might be why I disliked it.

 

[marshall23]

Hope they all crash and burn. Why are all these celebrities still in our country?

 

[Cosmos]

Nominees:
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the toughest picks I can ever recall. All of the aforementioned were good movies. What makes it difficult is that there wasn't a stand-out movie this year; just a lot of good ones. I saw all of the nominees except for Call Me by Your Name. I'd be pretty surprised if The Post or Phantom Thread were to win, and based on reviews I'd be mildly surprised if Call Me by Your Name were to win. Outside of those three, a good case could be made for any of the nominees. My belief is that it will come down to Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Perhaps by late Sunday afternoon, I'll come up with a pick, but I haven't been able to do so in the past month, so who knows.

Should Win: ??

Will Win: ??

Not watching. Don't give a shit what they do. Hollywood is bent on creating "teachable moments" and "changing the culture." The can stick it right up their ass.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Good run down by the A.V. Club....

https://www.avclub.com/what-will-win-and-what-should-win-at-this-sundays-osc-1823459106

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Should: Ladybird
Will: Shape of Water or Get Out

Watch for the loser to pick up wins in directing and/or writing.

Shape of Water was painful to watch. to me it just sucked.
What am i missing? Maybe I am too lowbrow.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Pacing was a big problem for me. I liked the characters and I thought Armie (Sp?) Hammer and Chalamet were very good.
And you know me and cinematography and that is the only reason I sat through it. It is gorgeous and I hope it does get an award for that.
Just thought it was slow and didn't move in the direction I wanted it too...hmm might be why I disliked it.

Isn’t there a creepy age gap too? Just saw the trailer, but heard the kid in the book was 17. I guess that’s okay if both protagonists are in a “protected class” (sarcasm alert), but not a good look given Spacey and such.

Imagine a current movie about a 24 year old gymnastics coach who has a relationship with a 17 year old female athlete under his care. Not nearly so “artsy” is it?

 

[Norm Petersin]

I thought Dunkirk was very overrated.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Isn’t there a creepy age gap too? Just saw the trailer, but heard the kid in the book was 17. I guess that’s okay if both protagonists are in a “protected class” (sarcasm alert), but not a good look given Spacey and such.

Imagine a current movie about a 24 year old gymnastics coach who has a relationship with a 17 year old female athlete under his care. Not nearly so “artsy” is it?

Yeah - it’s Lolita territory for sure. Difference here though is willing vs unwilling with regard to Spacey. I haven’t seen it yet though so no idea how it plays out on screen.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Yeah - it’s Lolita territory for sure. Difference here though is willing vs unwilling with regard to Spacey. I haven’t seen it yet though so no idea how it plays out on screen.

Sounds like it’s totally willing and within the age of consent where it’s set, but, as you know, there are still serious issues when it comes to an older, more experienced person taking advantage in such a situation. To be fair, there’s been a healthy debate about this re: the film

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

I thought Dunkirk was very overrated.

The genius in Dunkirk isn’t the story - which I found much more compelling as portrayed in Darkest Hour - it’s how technically accomplished it is. Nolan’s use of time and how he layers it is really remarkable. I’d add that the dogfighting scenes were great too. Otherwise, a fine but not outstanding film.

 

[phillybillyreprise]

I’ve seen Get Out, the Post, Phantom Thread, Lady Bird and 3 Billboards...
I liked Get Out and 3 Billboards. And yes, my wife chooses the movie. I get to watch sports on tv.

 

[gslachta]

Hope they all crash and burn. Why are all these celebrities still in our country?

They're not. I believe they all live in California. (SJLuvsLions and I are going to start a go fund me page to aid California in their plans for secession).

 

[marshall23]

They're not. I believe they all live in California. (SJLuvsLions and I are going to start a go fund me page to aid California in their plans for secession).

I am comforted to know that all those premi donnas are caucusing in an attempt to save our democracy.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Pacing was a big problem for me. I liked the characters and I thought Armie (Sp?) Hammer and Chalamet were very good.
And you know me and cinematography and that is the only reason I sat through it. It is gorgeous and I hope it does get an award for that.
Just thought it was slow and didn't move in the direction I wanted it too...hmm might be why I disliked it.

Isn’t there a creepy age gap too? Just saw the trailer, but heard the kid in the book was 17. I guess that’s okay if both protagonists are in a “protected class” (sarcasm alert), but not a good look given Spacey and such.

Imagine a current movie about a 24 year old gymnastics coach who has a relationship with a 17 year old female athlete under his care. Not nearly so “artsy” is it?

Okay - watched it last night. It is gorgeous to look at - Northern Italy in the summer of ‘83 couldn’t be more bucolic. It’s really hard to relate to the lifestyle though - archeology/history (?) professor invites star pupil to spend the summer in his Italian mansion (complete with servants, swimming pool, river, and multilingual hosts). Having said that, seeing the relationship through Elio’s eyes is a bit of a twist on Lolita where everything is seen through Humbert’s eyes. It landed about where I thought - mesmerizing summer romance, birth of sexuality for a young man going into adulthood, and wondering ‘what if?’ for all time. I will say the story I really liked and wished would have been my own was Elio’s spontaneous affair with gorgeous local French girl Marzia. Seeing her in that bikini even Elio couldn’t resist!

Anyway, I liked the movie but felt it was heavy handed with some things (shorts/underwear sniffing, fruit sex...). Everyone was great especially bilingual Chalamet who runs a wide range here. Also great is Stuhlberg as his father who gives the speech I’m sure all young boys would love to hear from their fathers at that age - it’s really great and impactful (especially when you see him react to the news that Oliver is engaged) - he could have easily been nominated as well.

It’s hard to parse through the relationship between Elio and Oliver (who seems like he’s been down this road before). It’s confrontational and doting at times - the fact that they’re near intellectual equals is interesting given the age gap. Elio as the aggressor was interesting too - wasn’t expecting that. Still, it seemed genuine and sincere and of course headed for heartbreak.

Good film for sure, but a familiar story of young, once in a lifetime romance that can’t happen because of ‘reality’. I did notice a bit of a nod to Brokeback Mountain with Elio and Oliver’s shirt which was nice if not intentional. Still, if I’m Elio, I get on my bike and get to Marzia’s house ASAP!

Esther Garrel as Marzia...

 

[NedFromYork]

Get Out is a guilty pleasure kind of movie in the way classic horror B movies are, it's not a cinematic masterpiece. I didn't care for it, but I could see how some would in a campy kind of way.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Didn’t want to start a separate thread, so here are my picks in the major categories:

Supporting Actor - Rockwell
Supporting Actress - Janney
Actor - Oldman
Actress - McDormand
Original Screenplay - Get Out
Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name
Directing - Shape of Water
Picture - Ladybird

Shape of Water and Dunkirk will clean up technical awards. Upset potential in Actor and Actress categories (Chalamet and Ronan). Day Lewis is also a threat if he's really going to give up acting.

Looking forward to a fun night!

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Get Out is a guilty pleasure kind of movie in the way classic horror B movies are, it's not a cinematic masterpiece. I didn't care for it, but I could see how some would in a campy kind of way.

I think the racial commentary is what everyone is talking about concerning this movie but also works as a horror film (B or otherwise...).

 

[NedFromYork]

Blade Runner 2049 for Visual Effects WELL DESERVED. What they did with sound to amp up the tension was also phenomenal, very much like Dunkirk did. Blade Runner was a very, very good movie.

 

[NedFromYork]

Blade Runner 2049 for Cinematography.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Did pretty well. Didn’t see Shape of Water but happy for Del Toro - he’s a geek’s geek.

 

[ChiTownLion]

 

[TenerHallTerror]

Blade Runner 2049 for Cinematography.

Roger Deakins gets off the schnide!! Honestly, he should have won for Sicario and Skyfall


Academy Awards, USA
2018 Winner
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 (2017)
2016 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
Sicario (2015)
2015 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
Unbroken (2014)
2014 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
Prisoners (2013)
2013 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
Skyfall (2012)
2011 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
True Grit (2010)
2009 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
The Reader (2008)
Shared with:
Chris Menges
2008 Nominee
Oscar Best Achievement in Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (2007)
Best Achievement in Cinematography
No Country for Old Men (2007)
2002 Nominee
Oscar Best Cinematography
The Man Who Wasn't There (2001)
2001 Nominee
Oscar Best Cinematography
O Brother, Where Art Thou? (2000)
1998 Nominee
Oscar Best Cinematography
Kundun (1997)
1997 Nominee
Oscar Best Cinematography
Fargo (1996)
1995 Nominee
Oscar Best Cinematography
The Shawshank Redemption (1994)

 

[lionNYC]

Isn’t there a creepy age gap too? Just saw the trailer, but heard the kid in the book was 17. I guess that’s okay if both protagonists are in a “protected class” (sarcasm alert), but not a good look given Spacey and such.

Imagine a current movie about a 24 year old gymnastics coach who has a relationship with a 17 year old female athlete under his care. Not nearly so “artsy” is it?

Did not see the movie, but does it take place in Italy? I think the age of consent in Italy is 15, but i could be wrong.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Did not see the movie, but does it take place in Italy? I think the age of consent in Italy is 15, but i could be wrong.

It does. But both characters are American (well, the younger of the two is half French/American). Age of consent in most US states is 16.

 

[itsofficial101]

The Oscars and any awards show are no longer even watchable for anything other than a political rally. That is pretty much what they have morphed into. Sad what "entertainment" has become.