I saw a longer-term prediction this morning, where it made a dogleg at Havana and continued on to pass over Tampa Bay. It's not going to be pretty.
OT: Irma track
- Thread starter LionJim
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I saw a longer-term prediction this morning, where it made a dogleg at Havana and continued on to pass over Tampa Bay. It's not going to be pretty.
I don't think they have a clue where it will hit the US yet. I've also read that it will get torn up as it travels over, or near, the DR, Haiti, Cuba etc. But if it skirts north of those islands it will be a mother.
In ft Myers. Going to start putting up storm shutters today just to be safe. Everyone stay safe out there and fingers crossed for it moving somewhere away from anyone.
its winds are stronger than Andrew's, at this time. This is a killer storm and one that could be the worst ever unless the mountains of Cuba shreds it up in time for it to pass thru the straits. Pity poor Haiti. For SoFla residents, I'd get to Orlando quickly and wouldn't wait till the last minute.
Bit early but it will be very bad where ever it goes. It will either hit Fl and do major damage there and turn north or it will skirt south of Fl, or cross over Fl, and into the Gulf. If it does get into the Gulf that it will be disastrous. It will get very strong over the very warm Gulf waters and hit Al, Ms, Ls or even Tx. Hope it doesn't hit Tx again.
The one good thing it is moving fast and will not linger for days like Harvey did. The damage from this one will be more wind damage, not massive flooding. Once it goes inland, depending on how it behaves, flooding could be bad inland. If it hits New Orleans, it might be as bad as Katrina was.
The one good thing it is moving fast and will not linger for days like Harvey did. The damage from this one will be more wind damage, not massive flooding. Once it goes inland, depending on how it behaves, flooding could be bad inland. If it hits New Orleans, it might be as bad as Katrina was.
I just checked. Irma is moving at 14 mph. I recall that Harvey was moving basically at 4 mph; I would appreciate a correction if needed.
Fear is it takes out the keys then gets into the Gulf and reorganizes, god help the gulf shores as 40K still in shelters. Remember Katrina first hit Miami as Cat 1.
Well I am supposed to be in Sarasota permanently on 9/17. My wife was supposed to start driving north to Columbus, Ohio to pick me and the few belongings I have in my apartment up here on Saturday.
But now everything is up in the air. This has been planned for a year. Don't know what we are going to do right now, but it looks like it is a least going to delay her trip up north. A lot to do to prepare for the potential storm such as fueling up the generators, move pool furniture into the lanai, close the hurricane shutters, etc.
My MIL was going to be down in St. Croix to buy a house today. Trip was cancelled and now that looks like a good decision as the island may get pounded by a cat 5. It will be interesting to see if the house they wanted is still standing.
I saw a longer-term prediction this morning, where it made a dogleg at Havana and continued on to pass over Tampa Bay. It's not going to be pretty.
the reason people are freaking is because the news in Florida is making predictions from predictions.
Half of the maps show Irma at Miami and then show three possible paths from there... i.e. crushing Florida.
It is days away and plenty of time to worry.
LdN
the media will stir it up to the point you'd think north korea will be launching a HBomb on Miami. The Fake News Network will be all over it and portray doomsday scenario's. nevertheless, a run on Home Depot supplies and water should be a course of action right now.
So Campbell... my mom is in Frostproof, Fl. (about an hour south of Orlando (in the middle of the state)). She has never been in a hurricane. She lives in a mobile home park. I have often heard that the hurricanes "die out" (lessen in strength) when they hit the center of the state. Being that she is a "novice" and listening to local warnings.... any advice. By the way she is 83 years old. THANKS.
She should not stay in any mobile home even in the center of the state. If she is able or mobile enough, get her out sooner rather than later. Even if that is to a hotel in the middle of the state. Down Trees and wind damage inland with a storm like this, not to mention tornadoes are almost a guarantee.
bwifan
Well-Known Member
She should find a place with a much better structure. Like a school or church or other brick and mortar building. She could easily see winds over 120mph there. This storm is a beast and larger than the state of Ohio. She should check now for emergency shelters she can get to before it's too late
Actually, they undersold Harvey.... hence they aren;t taking chances on Irma.
Or the one following.
What do you call this?
Keep in mind this was from September 1st. They showed three predictions with % chances based on a prediction of where Irma would be on September 6th.
So based on a prediction in the future, there's a 30% chance it hits Florida.
How about this one? When did IRMA run over PR? Oh wait, another prediction on a prediction.
So yes, it is the media's fault.
LdN
I would think the percentages go up rather than stay the same 4-5 days later.What do you call this?
Keep in mind this was from September 1st. They showed three predictions with % chances based on a prediction of where Irma would be on September 6th.
So based on a prediction in the future, there's a 30% chance it hits Florida.
How about this one? When did IRMA run over PR? Oh wait, another prediction on a prediction.
So yes, it is the media's fault.
LdN
bwifan
Well-Known Member
Euro model running and just came in with Cape Coral Port Charlotte hit ... highest resolution and most accurate model ...
Interesting run
Interesting run
bwifan
Well-Known Member
I don't know exactly what you're saying, but they are predicting predictions of predictions.
There are 1000s of scenarios of where the storm may be. Off the coast of Cuba is one of them.
If it is off the coast of Cuba... a 1% chance let's say, then yes... there is a 30% chance it hits Florida.
Right now it could turn anywhere.
LdN
I lived through Katrina and Wilma in Lauderdale. No fun. With Wilma, no power for nine days and no water for four days. Walked up four flights with buckets of water from the pool to flush #2. Thank you pool. Tub full of water doesn't last real long.
But didn't the gov of Fla just declare an emergency? Is fooled, too?What do you call this?
Keep in mind this was from September 1st. They showed three predictions with % chances based on a prediction of where Irma would be on September 6th.
So based on a prediction in the future, there's a 30% chance it hits Florida.
How about this one? When did IRMA run over PR? Oh wait, another prediction on a prediction.
So yes, it is the media's fault.
LdN
