OT Should I take a Helicopter Tour on the Big Island of Hawaii?

[dailybuck777]

I mean if irrational fear is your thing, then sure. You should trust your local friend.

Not the numbers.

LdN

The local lives near the Makaha surf break, and like most locals is closely attuned to weather conditions which affect the surf. It is not like he is nobody bystander unfamiliar with weather events.

I am not dealing with irrational fear, but rather with the odds. If, for instance you are continually taking 1 in 1000 chances of serios accidents or death, it will eventually catch up with you. On my end, I am not that interested in the trip (sure it would be good, but really doesn't light my fire). For something more important or enjoyable for me, the calculus would be much different. Will talk to my children and see how important it is to them -- if real important, it will change my calculus.

Will add that if children go, I will obviously go -- won't expose them to a risk that I won't take.

 

[dailybuck777]

Do the manta night snorkelling!

Already scheduled.

 

[LafayetteBear]

No.

 

[dailybuck777]

No.

Curious as to your reason why.

 

[Norm Petersin]

Can you take out insurance and name me as beneficiary, just in case?

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

The local lives near the Makaha surf break, and like most locals is closely attuned to weather conditions which affect the surf. It is not like he is nobody bystander unfamiliar with weather events.

I am not dealing with irrational fear, but rather with the odds. If, for instance you are continually taking 1 in 1000 chances of serios accidents or death, it will eventually catch up with you. On my end, I am not that interested in the trip (sure it would be good, but really doesn't light my fire). For something more important or enjoyable for me, the calculus would be much different. Will talk to my children and see how important it is to them -- if real important, it will change my calculus.

Will add that if children go, I will obviously go -- won't expose them to a risk that I won't take.

Certainly a better way of looking at this.

For those that would say you're more likely to die driving or sitting in a church or whatever, I'm just wondering what the basis is for those statistics. Stats can be misinterpreted. For example, driving a car from New York to LA versus that same flight, I could see the plane being safer on a deaths/mile basis, and that would be a somewhat more reliable use for a statistical comparison, driver ability aside. But how are you doing that type of evaluation for a helicopter tour? Doing the same tour versus a sky dive, or a drive around the island, a boat tour?

We need to be careful when using stats to prove or disprove the safety of one thing versus that of another. In the end, per what DailyBuck posted here, I think it comes down to knowing the history of such tours, some conversations with family, and then doing what your gut tells you is best. In the end, it will be based on a feeling, not math.

 

[ILLINOISLION]

Of course, the 1 in 1,000 depends upon how many times you roll the dice.

Hopefully the odds on the helicopter ride are closer to 1 in 10,000+.....and hopefully you aren’t going to do anything this “risky” again.

Personally, I’d feel safer on (or actually in) the helicopter than attending a game at tOSU by myself wearing PSU-logoed clothing.

 

[LafayetteBear]

Curious as to your reason why.

I went out to the backyard, shot a bird, cut it open, and read the auspices. LB the Omniscient predicts dire consequences if you get in that helicopter.

 

[PittMed]

I went out to the backyard, shot a bird, cut it open, and read the auspices. LB the Omniscient predicts dire consequences if you get in that helicopter.

Lol

 

[BoulderFish]

I am in Hawaii, and am scheduled to take a Helicopter tour on Jan. 2d. I am generally suspicious of the safety of helicopters, but thought it was something my children (14 & 18) would enjoy. About 10 days ago, there was a fatal accident in New Zealand and 3 days ago there was a fatal accident in Hawaii. (Kauai). Am somewhat conflicted, but currently leaning towards cancelling the flight. Curious what people here would do.

In October, I did the exact tour that crashed in Kauai the other day. That was my pilot that was flying the helicopter that crashed -- Good chance it was the same helicopter in which I rode (I think that company only had two on Kauai).

This news really hit home. Extremely sad. My wife and I are still in some shock from the news.

I'm not some crazy risk-taker, but I would absolutely do the tour again tomorrow if the opportunity magically presented itself.

 

[step.eng69]

talked to a local who said he wouldn't do it because there are dangerous up drafts and down drafts that are unpredictable. Hawaii's Congressional representative called the helicopter tours unsafe

Do you feel lucky?.....Do it.

 

[UncleLar]

Of course, the 1 in 1,000 depends upon how many times you roll the dice.

Hopefully the odds on the helicopter ride are closer to 1 in 10,000+.....and hopefully you aren’t going to do anything this “risky” again.

Personally, I’d feel safer on (or actually in) the helicopter than attending a game at tOSU by myself wearing PSU-logoed clothing.

The fatal accident rate for helicopters in the U.S. hovers around 0.5-0.6 per 100,000 hours of flight. So you have about 1 death every 200,000 hours. So you could expect to roll those dice for over 22 years before your number came up.

Take the tour.

 

[hereforthebeer]

The local lives near the Makaha surf break, and like most locals is closely attuned to weather conditions which affect the surf. It is not like he is nobody bystander unfamiliar with weather events.

I am not dealing with irrational fear, but rather with the odds. If, for instance you are continually taking 1 in 1000 chances of serios accidents or death, it will eventually catch up with you. On my end, I am not that interested in the trip (sure it would be good, but really doesn't light my fire). For something more important or enjoyable for me, the calculus would be much different. Will talk to my children and see how important it is to them -- if real important, it will change my calculus.

Will add that if children go, I will obviously go -- won't expose them to a risk that I won't take.

As someone who does both, surfers are not more attuned to weather than pilots. That's puro loco.

 

[Metal Mike]

I am a former US Army helicopter pilot. I was stationed in Hawaii for 3 years. I was stationed on Oahu but got to fly to all the islands. While I was in Hawaii we did not have a fatal flight accident. The fatal accidents all involved traffic accidents.
The sights are unbelievable. Well worth the cost. Of course for me there was no cost, I was getting paid. The only unknown is the maintenance of the firms and the certification/history of the pilots.
That said I would go.

 

[LionDeNittany]

The local lives near the Makaha surf break, and like most locals is closely attuned to weather conditions which affect the surf. It is not like he is nobody bystander unfamiliar with weather events.

I am not dealing with irrational fear, but rather with the odds. If, for instance you are continually taking 1 in 1000 chances of serios accidents or death, it will eventually catch up with you. On my end, I am not that interested in the trip (sure it would be good, but really doesn't light my fire). For something more important or enjoyable for me, the calculus would be much different. Will talk to my children and see how important it is to them -- if real important, it will change my calculus.

Will add that if children go, I will obviously go -- won't expose them to a risk that I won't take.

The question for you is... what do you think the chance actually is?

Give me a number.

I am telling you, factually, your fear is irrational.
But let's see with numbers.

LdN

 

[AvalonJohn]

I am in Hawaii, and am scheduled to take a Helicopter tour on Jan. 2d. I am generally suspicious of the safety of helicopters, but thought it was something my children (14 & 18) would enjoy. About 10 days ago, there was a fatal accident in New Zealand and 3 days ago there was a fatal accident in Hawaii. (Kauai). Am somewhat conflicted, but currently leaning towards cancelling the flight. Curious what people here would do.

Yes you should, I took mine with Safari the one that just had the fatal accident. Great tour and qualified ex-marine piIot. I would do it again! What happened was unfortunate, but doesn't happen all that often.

 

[AvalonJohn]

TC is the best!

TC, LoL.

 

[LionDeNittany]

The fatal accident rate for helicopters in the U.S. hovers around 0.5-0.6 per 100,000 hours of flight. So you have about 1 death every 200,000 hours. So you could expect to roll those dice for over 22 years before your number came up.

Take the tour.

Factually this would be closer to 50 years if one flew a helicopter for 12 hours per day for 50 years.

Your number assumes 24 hrs of flight per day.

Also, not sure if the accident rate = deaths. There are plenty of helicopter accidents and they very infrequently end in death.

LdN

 

[auxgym]

The local lives near the Makaha surf break, and like most locals is closely attuned to weather conditions which affect the surf. It is not like he is nobody bystander unfamiliar with weather events.

I am not dealing with irrational fear, but rather with the odds. If, for instance you are continually taking 1 in 1000 chances of serios accidents or death, it will eventually catch up with you. On my end, I am not that interested in the trip (sure it would be good, but really doesn't light my fire). For something more important or enjoyable for me, the calculus would be much different. Will talk to my children and see how important it is to them -- if real important, it will change my calculus.

Will add that if children go, I will obviously go -- won't expose them to a risk that I won't take.

If we are talking odds......what are the odds of another helicopter crash in hawaii with fatalities within the given time frame? I would say it's a LOCK you won't crash!!!

 

[UncleLar]

Factually this would be closer to 50 years if one flew a helicopter for 12 hours per day for 50 years.

Your number assumes 24 hrs of flight per day.

Also, not sure if the accident rate = deaths. There are plenty of helicopter accidents and they very infrequently end in death.

LdN

My number was the fatal accident rate (i.e. death rate) not the accident rate. Accident rate is about 6 times higher. The number was actually up last year at .72, the first time in five years it had gotten above .6. But the increase came primarily from private helicopters and helicopters used in the utilities, patrol, and construction industries. Commercial rates were way down.

https://www.verticalmag.com/press-r...or-u-s-helicopter-accident-rates-during-2018/

 

[LafayetteBear]

I am a former US Army helicopter pilot. I was stationed in Hawaii for 3 years. I was stationed on Oahu but got to fly to all the islands. While I was in Hawaii we did not have a fatal flight accident. The fatal accidents all involved traffic accidents.
The sights are unbelievable. Well worth the cost. Of course for me there was no cost, I was getting paid. The only unknown is the maintenance of the firms and the certification/history of the pilots.
That said I would go.

Mike: Your take on this is obviously better informed than anyone else’s here, so I have a couple of questions:

1. I believe an earlier post in this thread indicated that the area where this chopper went down (Na Pali coast of Kauai) is subject to strong updrafts and downdrafts. Doesn’t that significantly raise the difficulty and risk for helicopter flights in that area?

2. Video footage I have seen of the Na Pali coast suggests that it is largely comprised of volcanic cliffs, meaning few beaches and shallows. So if a chopper has to set down in the ocean, even relatively close to shore, it is likely gonna sink to a considerable depth. Isn’t this also a bit problematic?

 

[ILLINOISLION]

Yes you should, I took mine with Safari the one that just had the fatal accident. Great tour and qualified ex-marine piIot. I would do it again! What happened was unfortunate, but doesn't happen all that often.

Does a helicopter crash very often?

No, just once.....

 

[ILLINOISLION]

If we are talking odds......what are the odds of another helicopter crash in hawaii with fatalities within the given time frame? I would say it's a LOCK you won't crash!!!

I was flying out of Chicago O’Hare several hours after the American flight lost an engine and crashed back in 1979.

My Mom was going ape-shit about me flying, but my Dad when he dropped me off said relax, it’s probably as safe a flight as you’ll ever be on!

 

[BoulderFish]

Mike: Your take on this is obviously better informed than anyone else’s here, so I have a couple of questions:

1. I believe an earlier post in this thread indicated that the area where this chopper went down (Na Pali coast of Kauai) is subject to strong updrafts and downdrafts. Doesn’t that significantly raise the difficulty and risk for helicopter flights in that area?

2. Video footage I have seen of the Na Pali coast suggests that it is largely comprised of volcanic cliffs, meaning few beaches and shallows. So if a chopper has to set down in the ocean, even relatively close to shore, it is likely gonna sink to a considerable depth. Isn’t this also a bit problematic?

RE #1: I could be misremembering, but I thought the mention of "up drafts" was RE another island. I'm not sure how much truth there is to the up draft concern, but when I did my 'copter tour of the Na Pali coast, we had far from perfect weather, and there wasn't once that our helicopter was at all noticeably shaken/affected by the weather/environment. It was like we were floating on a pillow the whole time.

RE #2: Yeah, if right on the Na Pali coast, that is true. If you have any control at all while going down, not many options. With that said, the entire tour isn't over that Na Pali coast terrain. You fly there, and fly back -- and take the scenic routes. A lot of that terrain does provide options for setting down if need be.

 

[dailybuck777]

The question for you is... what do you think the chance actually is?

Give me a number.

I am telling you, factually, your fear is irrational.
But let's see with numbers.

LdN

I don't know the number. That is what scares me. Some operations will be much more comptetent than others. Averaging the various services, I would guess 1 out of 2000 or 3000. Checked with my service, and 4 people died in 2001. Also, 2 hard landings this year. Not exactly a confidence booster. Will add that what you and others are missing is that this tour is no big deal to me, and my kids weren't super enthused about it when it was booked. The risk reward calculation is not great for me. If this was for a job or a financial deal, I would do it without hesitation, perhaps with a different company.

This appears to be somewhat similar to the 737 Max situation after the first crash. Authorities stated it was an outlier, but it really wasn't and many people died in a second crash.

 

[GSPMax]

Already scheduled.

Went snorkling with my wife in one of island parks (don't remember which one). I was following her when she suddenly did a 180 and motored on away from me. When I caught up, I asked what was that all about? She said a moray eel was coming out of a hole in the reef. I said a little earlier warning would have been nice.

Moral is, there is a little bit of risk in everything we do.

 

[UncleLar]

I don't know the number. That is what scares me. Some operations will be much more comptetent than others. Averaging the various services, I would guess 1 out of 2000 or 3000. Checked with my service, and 4 people died in 2001. Also, 2 hard landings this year. Not exactly a confidence booster. Will add that what you and others are missing is that this tour is no big deal to me, and my kids weren't super enthused about it when it was booked. The risk reward calculation is not great for me. If this was for a job or a financial deal, I would do it without hesitation, perhaps with a different company.

This appears to be somewhat similar to the 737 Max situation after the first crash. Authorities stated it was an outlier, but it really wasn't and many people died in a second crash.

You're a couple of magnitudes off. More like 1 out of 200,000.

 

[LionDeNittany]

I don't know the number. That is what scares me. Some operations will be much more comptetent than others. Averaging the various services, I would guess 1 out of 2000 or 3000. Checked with my service, and 4 people died in 2001. Also, 2 hard landings this year. Not exactly a confidence booster. Will add that what you and others are missing is that this tour is no big deal to me, and my kids weren't super enthused about it when it was booked. The risk reward calculation is not great for me. If this was for a job or a financial deal, I would do it without hesitation, perhaps with a different company.

This appears to be somewhat similar to the 737 Max situation after the first crash. Authorities stated it was an outlier, but it really wasn't and many people died in a second crash.

All I can say is that your math is way wayyyy off.

If your numbers were right NOONE in the world would be a commercial helicopter pilot because they are ALL guaranteed death within a few years.

They probably do 5 flights a day 5 days a week.
25 per week x 50 weeks (take away vacation)
1250 flights per year assuming all they did was carry rational people around for tours.

ALL WOULD BE DEAD IN FOUR YEARS!

On that helicopter your life expectancy goes up. Not down.

LdN

 

[DingerzForDaze]

The local lives near the Makaha surf break, and like most locals is closely attuned to weather conditions which affect the surf. It is not like he is nobody bystander unfamiliar with weather events.

I am not dealing with irrational fear, but rather with the odds. If, for instance you are continually taking 1 in 1000 chances of serios accidents or death, it will eventually catch up with you. On my end, I am not that interested in the trip (sure it would be good, but really doesn't light my fire). For something more important or enjoyable for me, the calculus would be much different. Will talk to my children and see how important it is to them -- if real important, it will change my calculus.

Will add that if children go, I will obviously go -- won't expose them to a risk that I won't take.

You are dealing with irrational fear, and trying your best to portray it as rational. But you are failing.

 

[DingerzForDaze]

Averaging the various services, I would guess 1 out of 2000 or 3000.

Like I said, you're dealing with irrational fear. As others have pointed out, those numbers that are floating around in your head are WAY off. You're not even in the ballpark of rationality.

Don't deprive your kids of the experience just because you're being a crazy person. Yeah, they may not be saying they're excited about it now, but they may also be saying that because they see the irrational fear in your eyes when you talk about it and they don't want to make you seem like a ninny ... AND, the actual experience is much, much better than the thought of it ... so even if they're not jazzed about it now, after they get done with it, they'll be grateful they went.

You should stay on the ground and let them go, because you'll be a wet blanket, or otherwise have them concerned about your well-being rather than enjoying the experience.

 

[Nitwit]

I just booked a sea plane tour in Alaska. The pilot does one landing in a fiord just for the fun of it and than takes off again for the remainder of the tour. Anyone done one of these? It’s in Ketchikan, near the Mystic Monument Fiord.

 

[dailybuck777]

All I can say is that your math is way wayyyy off.

If your numbers were right NOONE in the world would be a commercial helicopter pilot because they are ALL guaranteed death within a few years.

They probably do 5 flights a day 5 days a week.
25 per week x 50 weeks (take away vacation)
1250 flights per year assuming all they did was carry rational people around for tours.

ALL WOULD BE DEAD IN FOUR YEARS!

On that helicopter your life expectancy goes up. Not down.

LdN

At
WaIkiki I ran into a surfer who had lived in Kona. He was aware of another fatal accident in last 18 months. He wouldn't do the trip and suggested snorkeling and jet skiing. My kids don't want to fly. Makes it easy for me to cancel helicopter ride











P

 

[LionDeNittany]

At
WaIkiki I ran into a surfer who had lived in Kona. He was aware of another fatal accident in last 18 months. He wouldn't do the trip and suggested snorkeling and jet skiing. My kids don't want to fly. Makes it easy for me to cancel helicopter ride











P

As I said originally... if you want to let irrational feae drive you go ahead and cancel.

You asked the boards advice and you got it.

I can mathematically prove your fear is irrational. You, on the other hand, can continue to build your case with things you heard from locals.

LdN

 

[gslachta]

After post, talked to a local who said he wouldn't do it because there are dangerous up drafts and down drafts that are unpredictable. Hawaii's Congressional representative called the heliocopter tours unsafe. On the other hand, my brother who is a world traveler has done it and said it was the experience of a lifetime.

That is the problem unpredictable updrafts. Lived on Oahu for 8 years. There was one company on Kauai that advertised it was the only company that never had a crash on the islands- until it did. You probably won’t die but I for one would not do it.

 

[drpops]

I am in Hawaii, and am scheduled to take a Helicopter tour on Jan. 2d. I am generally suspicious of the safety of helicopters, but thought it was something my children (14 & 18) would enjoy. About 10 days ago, there was a fatal accident in New Zealand and 3 days ago there was a fatal accident in Hawaii. (Kauai). Am somewhat conflicted, but currently leaning towards cancelling the flight. Curious what people here would do.

Best kept secrets in Hawaii - number of shark attacks and number of helicopter crashes!!!

 

[ILLINOISLION]

Best kept secrets in Hawaii - number of shark attacks and number of helicopter crashes!!!

The REAL secret is the number of times sharks have attacked helicopters!

 

[glidresquirrel]

Try and get TC (Island Hoppers) for your pilot, Can't go wrong.

Which TC though? Id fly with the real TC not sure about the new imposter.

 

[Creek Side]

Hawaii has seen 18 civilian helicopter crashes since 2015 according to NTSB records. I'm not sure how often you get to travel to Hawaii. Will you live with regret if you don't do it?

 

[soulkitchen74]

I did it. A little shaky.

 

[GSPMax]

Which TC though? Id fly with the real TC not sure about the new imposter.

Absolutely the original. Those Viet Nam pilots were the best