Path To Victory

[Flying_Tiger]

I was curious as to what would need to happen for Penn State to pull this out. Suffice it to say, a LOT of things would have to go their way but not impossible.

Bonus not factored in except 125 which could really change things.

Iowa 126.5 PSU 111.5

Howard 5th (+1); Lee only wins by major (+5)...........Iowa 131.5 PSU 112.5
Bravo-Young (+4) dec DeSanto....................................Iowa 131.5. PSU 116.5
Lee (+4) dec Eiereman...................................................Iowa 131.5. PSU 120.5
Berge 3rd (+4.5); Young loses.......................................Iowa 131.5 PSU 125.0
Marinelli wins (+4); Lee 7th (+1)...................................Iowa 135.5. PSU 126.0
Star (+4) dec Kemerer....................................................Iowa 135.5. PSU 130.0
Brooks wins (+4); Brands 5th (+1)................................Iowa 136.5. PSU 134.0
Beard 3rd (+4.5); Warner 5th (+1)................................Iowa 137.5. PSU 138.5
Kirk 3rd (+4.5) Cass 4th (+3.5)......................................Iowa 141.0 PSU 143.0

 

[nerfstate]

It’s a lot, but it doesn’t require Spencer to lose. Let’s go!

 

[82bordeaux]

 

[clucas]

I would go ahead and count on Spencer getting an extra 1.5 or 2. I think he tech falls or pins Schroder. Penn State can counter that with Howard defeating Heinselman and wrestling for 3/4 which would add an additional 3.5 points to their total minimum.

My math could be off, but I think maybe you are missing the .5 pt. advancement that is given in wrestlebacks if Berge, Kerk and Beard move on to wrestle for 3/4, no? They have all been given the placement points for 6th place minimum (which is 6). If they advance to the 3/4 match, they would be awarded the 3 additional points for at minimum 4th place (9 points) plus the .5 advancement. Then, winning the consy final earns them an extra point for 4.5 total if they take 3rd (assuming no bonus).

I don't think it's that far-fetched, honestly. Probably a lot closer than most would have thought before yesterday's semi-final and consolation round. Murin being out as a 2 seed is big. Young isn't beating Deakin. The most challenging things in your list to happen will be Carter topping Kemerer and Beard getting through Caffey and Warner for 3rd. Eirmann/Lee is a true toss up. RBY has to be favored at this point over DeSanto although it likely will be close. Brooks will have a tough match, but will be favored over Venz.

Kerkvliet has Lance who inj. defaulted to Steveson so he may get a free pass into the 3rd place match and will get the 2 bonus that goes along with it (not accounted for in your total). This sets up a huge match with Cassioppi for 3rd.

 

[jack66]

Let's give Lee a tech ... Iowa 141, PSU 141.5

 

[garw]

Great analysis @clucas and @Flying_Tiger . Most appreciated from a “football board” guy.

 

[clucas]

Also, I think it's likely that Warner advances to the consolation finals and again, would set up another possible PSU-Iowa H2H if Beard gets through Caffey. Brands has a tougher path.

 

[jack66]

As for bonus points, Iowa so far has 7 bonus wins, PSU has 12.

Obviously, it's easier to get bonus wins on the backside, but the Hawks have not proven to be an offensive juggernaut.

 

[Ian]

Some really outstanding analysis but PSU practically has to win out on their all matches today. Not impossible but not probable either. For Cael, it’s never been about B1G’s. It’s always about Nationals. This team has already out scored last years team and the goal was to really cut into the gap between them and Iowa which was 50 pts last year. Thy will do that!

 

[Flying_Tiger]

I would go ahead and count on Spencer getting an extra 1.5 or 2. I think he tech falls or pins Schroder. Penn State can counter that with Howard defeating Heinselman and wrestling for 3/4 which would add an additional 3.5 points to their total minimum.

My math could be off, but I think maybe you are missing the .5 pt. advancement that is given in wrestlebacks if Berge, Kerk and Beard move on to wrestle for 3/4, no? They have all been given the placement points for 6th place minimum (which is 6). If they advance to the 3/4 match, they would be awarded the 3 additional points for at minimum 4th place (9 points) plus the .5 advancement. Then, winning the consy final earns them an extra point for 4.5 total if they take 3rd (assuming no bonus).

I don't think it's that far-fetched, honestly. Probably a lot closer than most would have thought before yesterday's semi-final and consolation round. Murin being out as a 2 seed is big. Young isn't beating Deakin. The most challenging things in your list to happen will be Carter topping Kemerer and Beard getting through Caffey and Warner for 3rd. Eirmann/Lee is a true toss up. RBY has to be favored at this point over DeSanto although it likely will be close. Brooks will have a tough match, but will be favored over Venz.

Kerkvliet has Lance who inj. defaulted to Steveson so he may get a free pass into the 3rd place match and will get the 2 bonus that goes along with it (not accounted for in your total). This sets up a huge match with Cassioppi for 3rd.

Yes, missed the 0.5 points for advancement to 3/4; fixed it. PSU now wins by 2 😁

Lots and lots of variables, certainly Kerk picking up 2 bonus would be nice one for us.

 

[clucas]

Outside of Spencer, bonus points will be a rarity in remaining matches. Maybe Cass has the best chance to bonus Orndorff?

 

[jack66]

Some really outstanding analysis but PSU practically has to win out on their all matches today. Not impossible but not probable either. For Cael, it’s never been about B1G’s. It’s always about Nationals. This team has already out scored last years team and the goal was to really cut into the gap between them and Iowa which was 50 pts last year. Thy will do that!

Yep, we had a bunch of wrestlers who had not secured a ticket to NCAAs. Getting 9 NQs makes this a success already.

 

[RoarLions1]

Odds are way against winning this battle, with the war (real prize) coming in less than two weeks. I appreciate these analyses from a fan perspective, as it gives us hope, though this one feels like barely a sliver. In the end, the guys must focus on the opponent across from them, each and every bout and the chips will fall where they may. WE ARE!

 

[KCLion]

I was curious as to what would need to happen for Penn State to pull this out. Suffice it to say, a LOT of things would have to go their way but not impossible.

Bonus not factored in except 125 which could really change things.

Iowa 126.5 PSU 111.5

Howard 5th (+1); Lee only wins by major (+5)...........Iowa 131.5 PSU 112.5
Bravo-Young (+4) dec DeSanto....................................Iowa 131.5. PSU 116.5
Lee (+4) dec Eiereman...................................................Iowa 131.5. PSU 120.5
Berge 3rd (+4.5); Young loses.......................................Iowa 131.5 PSU 125.0
Marinelli wins (+4); Lee 7th (+1)...................................Iowa 135.5. PSU 126.0
Star (+4) dec Kemerer....................................................Iowa 135.5. PSU 130.0
Brooks wins (+4); Brands 5th (+1)................................Iowa 136.5. PSU 134.0
Beard 3rd (+4.5); Warner 5th (+1)................................Iowa 137.5. PSU 138.5
Kirk 3rd (+4.5) Cass 4th (+3.5)......................................Iowa 141.0 PSU 143.0

Don’t forget to add the two bonus points for the DeSanto tap out,

 

[ga.lion]

Yep, we had a bunch of wrestlers who had not secured a ticket to NCAAs. Getting 9 NQs makes this a success already.

If we qualified 9 or 10 Penn State always had a better shot at Iowa at the National tournament. Today’s another round of confidence building and quality work in that preparation. A win would be great but unfortunately unlikely. The team never got the Iowa match this season but this will be a good sampling with higher stakes. Congrats to the team and coaching staff on a great second session.....

 

[evashevsky58]

Yes, missed the 0.5 points for advancement to 3/4; fixed it. PSU now wins by 2 😁

Lots and lots of variables, certainly Kerk picking up 2 bonus would be nice one for us.

I believe Cass pinned Orndorff in the dual? So should factor that possibility in as well.

 

[clucas]

Here is Tiger's analysis:

Iowa 126.5 PSU 111.5

Howard 5th (+1); Lee only wins by major (+5)...........Iowa 131.5 PSU 112.5
Bravo-Young (+4) dec DeSanto....................................Iowa 131.5. PSU 116.5
Lee (+4) dec Eiereman...................................................Iowa 131.5. PSU 120.5
Berge 3rd (+4.5); Young loses.......................................Iowa 131.5 PSU 125.0
Marinelli wins (+4); Lee 7th (+1)...................................Iowa 135.5. PSU 126.0
Star (+4) dec Kemerer....................................................Iowa 135.5. PSU 130.0
Brooks wins (+4); Brands 5th (+1)................................Iowa 136.5. PSU 134.0
Beard 3rd (+4.5); Warner 5th (+1)................................Iowa 137.5. PSU 138.5
Kirk 3rd (+4.5) Cass 4th (+3.5)......................................Iowa 141.0 PSU 143.0

Here is another scenario:

125 I will count a fall for Spencer and have Robbie take 6th........................Iowa 132.5. PSU 111.5
133 same ..................................................................................................................Iowa 132.5 PSU 115.5
141 same....................................................................................................................Iowa 132.5 PSU 119.5
157 same.....................................................................................................................Iowa 132.5. PSU 124
165 same....................................................................................................................Iowa 136.5 PSU 124
174 same.....................................................................................................................Iowa 136.5 PSU 128
184 same.....................................................................................................................Iowa 137.5 PSU 132
197 Beard 3rd, Warner 4th (I think Warner advancing to consy finals is likely).......Iowa 141 PSU 136.5
HWT Kerk takes 3rd (but possibly has the +2 inj. def. bonus in consy semis) Iowa 144.5 PSU 143

The point is, it could be a lot closer than most think. Yes, a long shot, and A LOT has to go PSU's way for sure. One pin in any match for PSU would make up the above difference.

 

[bigs22]

The other thing to remember is that there tends to be quite a few forfeits on the backside of these tournaments. A couple well placed or poorly placed extra 2 pointers can throw a wrench into any plan.

 

[clucas]

It was fun for a few hours to dream this morning....the dream is now crushed as it has been another tough morning session for the Nittany Lions.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Yea, I knew the odds were slim but that was the opposite of everything going right.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Yea, I knew the odds were slim but that was the opposite of everything going right.

Well, at least it's better than last season.