Penn State 145.5

[Flying_Tiger]

145.5. That's what I come up with for Penn State if I give each guy the same amount of points as the wrestler that placed at their seed last year at NCAAs...i.e. Suriano gets what Tomasello scored last year taking 3rd, ect.

#3 Suriano 17 (Tomasello)
UNR Gulibon 1 (Several)
#1 Retherford 28.5 (Retherford)
#1 Nolf 22.5 (Martinez)
#3 Joseph 16.5 (Jordan)
#5 Hall 13(Jackson)
#2 Nickal 18 (Dudley)
#5 McCutch 14 (Downey)
#5 Nevills 15 (Dhesi)

 

[nitlion6]

In my conservative mode, but assuming Nick can compete (finish 3rd), I finished at 145.5.

No matter. It will be a fun 3 days.

 

[johnstownsteel]

You know, this isn't unreasonable at all. I think it's going to be pretty damn close to be honest with you.

Can't wait to see what you come up with for the other 3 top contenders.

 

[purescurve]

penn state 134.5 total points for the win

ohio state

ok state

iowa

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Please let Nick be healthy enough to wrestle close to seed. I could not stand a "what could have been" year given how well it went all season.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

That's what I come up with if I give each guy the same amount of points as the wrestler that placed at their seed last year at NCAAs...i.e. Suriano gets what Tomasello scored last year taking 3rd, ect.

Suriano 17 (Tomasello)
Gulibon 1 (Several)
Retherford 28.5 (Retherford)
Nolf 22.5 (Martinez)
Joseph 16.5 (Jordan)
Hall 13(Jackson)
Nickal 18 (Dudley)
McCutch 14 (Downey)
Nevills 15 (Dhesi)

Sounds about right - 130ish from 49, 57, 65, 74, 84, 97 and HWT.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

OSU 114

#8 Piccininni 8 (Schram)
#3 Brock 15.5 (Brewer)
#1 Heil 20 (Heil)
#2 Collica 17 (Sorenson)
#5 Smith 13 (Walsh)
#9 Rogers 4 (Weatherman)
#7 Crutchmer 6.5 (Walters)
#4 Boyd 12.5 (Boyd)
#6 Weigel 9 (Haught)
#6 Schafer 11 (Marsden)

 

[mn78psu83]

145.5. That's what I come up with for Penn State if I give each guy the same amount of points as the wrestler that placed at their seed last year at NCAAs...i.e. Suriano gets what Tomasello scored last year taking 3rd, ect.

#3 Suriano 17 (Tomasello)
UNR Gulibon 1 (Several)
#1 Retherford 28.5 (Retherford)
#1 Nolf 22.5 (Martinez)
#3 Joseph 16.5 (Jordan)
#5 Hall 13(Jackson)
#2 Nickal 18 (Dudley)
#5 McCutch 14 (Downey)
#5 Nevills 15 (Dhesi)

Alright FT. My nerves are calmed. We'll take it!

 

[pawrestlersintn]

OSU 114

#8 Piccininni 8 (Schram)
#3 Brock 15.5 (Brewer)
#1 Heil 20 (Heil)
#2 Collica 17 (Sorenson)
#5 Smith 13 (Walsh)
#9 Rogers 4 (Weatherman)
#7 Crutchmer 6.5 (Walters)
#4 Boyd 12.5 (Boyd)
#6 Weigel 9 (Haught)
#6 Schafer 11 (Marsden)

That means we would win it with our top 6 guys. 7 and 8 would just be icing on the cake.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Are you saying that Cutch should match PD3? Dang.....a new entrant into the HODGE race from PSU!! GO MATT!!!

 

[a_mshaffer]

when Nick takes the mat Thursday, will anyone be watching the other 6 (or the rest of) mats?

 

[LutherAce]

If wrestled to seed without any bonus points:
PSU 113
OKST 102
OSU 98.5
VT 73.5
IOWA 72
MIZZ 61.5
Cornell 42.5
NEB 42
MINN 36
ASU 33
WIS 28.5
NC State 16
UNC 12
Edinboro 12

based on the following points per seed:


1 20
2 16
3 13.5
4 12.5
5 10
6 9
7 6.5
8 5.5
9-12 2
13-16 1.5

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Last year, PSU scored 23 bonus, OkST 13.5. I expect about the same, maybe slightly more, bonus from our guys this year, and less from OkST. Five of theirs came from Dieringer.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

tOSU 118

unr Rodriguez 1
#1 Tomasello 24 (Garrett)
#12 Pletcher 4 (Jordan)
#4 Jordan 14.5 (Collica)
unr Burcher 1
#3 Jordan 20.5 (Epperly)
#6 Martin 12 (Miklus)
#3 Moore 16.5 (Pfarr)
#1 Snyder 24.5 (Snyder)

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Iowa 93.5

#1 Gilman 21 (Mega)
#4 Clark 13.5 (Richards)
unr Carton 1
#5 Sorenson 14 (DePalma)
#2 Kemerer 22 (Nolf)
unr Gunther 1
#11 Meyer 5 (Rogers)
#3 Brooks 15 (Renda)
unr Wilcke 1

 

[jack66]

Interesting way to look at it. Considering that we will likey out-bonus everyone, we just need to hold serve.

 

[dsites52]

What's that you say? Wrestling and stats TOGETHER!
Party time!

 

[diggerpup]

I think 120 is the magic number. I've also seen 115 stated as the magic number.

115/120 is the absolute ceiling Okie St or tOSU is facing unless of several of their kids have superhuman weekends.

On the other hand, PSU has multiple paths to pass 115/120 .... several of those paths take less than "8 scorers" too. Lol

 

[Lyons212]

I have PSU at 138, Okie State at 125 and Ohio State at 106. PSU will score 10 to 15 more bonus points than Okie State. The last 4 or 5 years Okie State has done very well compared to their seeds as a team, PSU is slightly above their seeds as a team. These 2 should offset each other. This assumes Suriano is healthy enough, reality at this time of the year is a lot of wrestlers are banged up, we just don't hear about it.

 

[JOESTROSSER]

If wrestled to seed without any bonus points:
PSU 113
OKST 102
OSU 98.5
VT 73.5
IOWA 72
MIZZ 61.5
Cornell 42.5
NEB 42
MINN 36
ASU 33
WIS 28.5
NC State 16
UNC 12
Edinboro 12

based on the following points per seed:


1 20
2 16
3 13.5
4 12.5
5 10
6 9
7 6.5
8 5.5
9-12 2
13-16 1.5

I get 90.5 for OSU. Not sure were the difference is.

 

[jtothemfp]

145.5. That's what I come up with for Penn State if I give each guy the same amount of points as the wrestler that placed at their seed last year at NCAAs...i.e. Suriano gets what Tomasello scored last year taking 3rd, ect.

#3 Suriano 17 (Tomasello)
UNR Gulibon 1 (Several)
#1 Retherford 28.5 (Retherford)
#1 Nolf 22.5 (Martinez)
#3 Joseph 16.5 (Jordan)
#5 Hall 13(Jackson)
#2 Nickal 18 (Dudley)
#5 McCutch 14 (Downey)
#5 Nevills 15 (Dhesi)

Whoa, cool spin on points projection. I dig it!

 

[dunkej01]

I think 120 is the magic number. I've also seen 115 stated as the magic number.

115/120 is the absolute ceiling Okie St or tOSU is facing unless of several of their kids have superhuman weekends.

On the other hand, PSU has multiple paths to pass 115/120 .... several of those paths take less than "8 scorers" too. Lol

with all these paths, im having flash backs to the pres election.....aaaahahahahahahah

 

[21Guns]

Actually, elections and championships can be won in the same way: Grass roots guys, normally not "big bonus scorers" can score points for you, adding to your total. Guys not planned on originally.

Like, say, James English for example. Or, in this case, Jimmy Gulibon or Nick Suriano, who will indeed wrestle next week.

In the last election, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, not "planned on" per se, but scored points for the "winner" of the election. Of course, THAT system really IS flawed, because the overall second place winner, actually had more points than the winner, lmao.

 

[nitnylin]

Actually, elections and championships can be won in the same way: Grass roots guys, normally not "big bonus scorers" can score points for you, adding to your total. Guys not planned on originally.

Like, say, James English for example. Or, in this case, Jimmy Gulibon or Nick Suriano, who will indeed wrestle next week.

In the last election, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, not "planned on" per se, but scored points for the "winner" of the election. Of course, THAT system really IS flawed, because the overall second place winner, actually had more points than the winner, lmao.

 

[AgSurfer]

Actually, elections and championships can be won in the same way: Grass roots guys, normally not "big bonus scorers" can score points for you, adding to your total. Guys not planned on originally.

Like, say, James English for example. Or, in this case, Jimmy Gulibon or Nick Suriano, who will indeed wrestle next week.

In the last election, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, not "planned on" per se, but scored points for the "winner" of the election. Of course, THAT system really IS flawed, because the overall second place winner, actually had more points than the winner, lmao.

Only if you consider illegal points to be valid.

 

[mcruny42]

I came up with PSU at 125, Ok St at 130 and tOSU at 124!

*I have Nick S taking 6th as wrestling Lizak on a gimpy ankle scares me as well as how it will hold up come Saturday...

 

[diggerpup]

I came up with PSU at 125, Ok St at 130 and tOSU at 124!

*I have Nick S taking 6th as wrestling Lizak on a gimpy ankle scares me as well as how it will hold up come Saturday...

Thanks for your work, but I don't see how BOTH OkieSt could hit 130 AND tOSU could hit 124.

That doesn't make much sense.

I don't think either of them can top 120.

 

[LutherAce]

https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/interactive-bracket-v2-1.184082/

I get 90.5 for OSU. Not sure were the difference is.

 

[nitlion6]

What's that you say? Wrestling and stats TOGETHER!
Party time!

This is disturbing.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Va Tech 103

#2 Dance 21.5 (Gilman)
#6 Chishko 11 (Pantaleo)
#14 Mastriana 2 (Murphy)
#4 Epperly 19.5 (Kent)
#5 Zavatsky 16 (Miller)
#4 Haught 12.5 (Burak)
#3 Walz 20.5 (Coon)

 

[RoarLions1]

Only 1 year in history (2012) have 4 teams exceeded 100 points. Only 4 other times have 3 exceeded 100 points (1990, 2001, 2002, 2013).

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Va Tech did come in a little high, imo. A few of those guys from last year scored a lot for the placing. I think this method would work really well if I averaged the points over a 5 or 10 year time frame but I'm not real motivated to do that.

 

[diggerpup]

Only 1 year in history (2012) have 4 teams exceeded 100 points. Only 4 other times have 3 exceeded 100 points (1990, 2001, 2002, 2013).

Roar.

Why do you think that 100 point stat tidbit is ?

Previous singular dominance of programs like Iowa & Oklahoma State ?

Is there more emphasis for bonus points in the last 10-15 years ? (Higher scores overall)

Or is it due to the fewer number of D-1 programs over recent decades?

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Also, 2012 was the last year bye points were awarded at NCAAs.

 

[minnhawkeye]

Really glad you guys have fun doing all this fiquring. No need to even have the tourney right it all said and done..
Some of you have to much time on your hands

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Revised Penn State Scoring with 4 year average: 139.5

If a wrestler is seeded at the same weight as he previously placed, I just continued to use that score. Also, flat scores for unr (1) point, rd 16 (2) points, round of 12 (3) points.

#3 Suriano 15 (Tomasello, Waters, Mega, Garrett)
UNR Gulibon 1
#1 Retherford 28.5 (Retherford)
#1 Nolf 23 (Martinez, Martinez, Dieringer, St. John)
#3 Joseph 17.5 (Jordan, Jordan, Monk, Caldwell)
#5 Hall 13(Jackson, Crutchmer, Storley, Kokesh)
#2 Nickal 16.5 (Dudley, Brown, Sheptock, Hamlin)
#5 McCutch 12 (Downey, Cox, Hartman, Schiller)
#5 Nevills 13 (Dhesi, Telford, McClure, Thomusseit)

 

[Flying_Tiger]

OSU 120.5

#8 Piccininni 6.5 (Schram, Conaway, Hall, Cox)
#3 Brock 16.5 (Brewer, Schopp, Colon, Graff)
#1 Heil 20 (Heil)
#2 Collica 17 (Sorenson, Habat, Kindig, Chamberlain)
#5 Smith 13.5 (Walsh, Miller, St. John, Pena)
#9 Rogers 3
#7 Crutchmer 10 (Walters, Crutchmer, Brown, Heflin)
#4 Boyd 12.5 (Boyd)
#6 Weigel 11 (Haught, Hartman, Schiller, Gadson)
#6 Schafer 10.5 (Marsden, Lawson, Telford, Trice)

 

[dunkej01]

nice work FT. Very cool look back that allows us to look forward.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

tOSU 110.5

unr Rodriguez 1
#1 Tomasello 24 (Garrett, Brewer, Ramos, Stieber)
#12 Pletcher 3
#4 Jordan 15 (Collica, Sorenson, Habat, Ness)
unr Burcher 1
#3 Jordan 17 (Epperly, Kokesh, Storley, Kokesh)
#6 Martin 10 (Miklus, Zillmer, Thomas, Sheptock)
#3 Moore 15 (Pfarr, McIntosh, Schiller, Wilps)
#1 Snyder 24.5 (Snyder)

 

[Gray52]

PSU 127 (8 AA's, 3 finalists, 2 champions)
Suriano 5.5 (8th), Jimmy 1, Zain 25 (1st), Nolf 27 (1st), Cenzo 14.5 (3rd), Wreck 14 (4th), Bo 19 (2nd), Cutch 6.5 (7th), Nick 14.5 (4th).

tOSU 105 (6 AA's, 2 finalists, 2 champions)
Rodriguez 0, NaTo 21, Pletcher 3, Jordan, 11, Burcher 2, BoJo 17, MyMart 10, Moore 14, Snyder 27.

Ok St 94.5 (8 AA's, 3 Finalists, no champions)
Piccinni 8, Brock 18, Heil 17, Collica 17, Smith 5.5, Rogers 7.5, Crutchmer 5.5, Boyd 11, Weigel 3, Schafer 2

Iowa 89 (5 AA's, 3 finalists, 1 champion)
Gilman 21, Clark 13.5, Carton 2, Sorensen 17, Kemerer 18, Gunther 1.5, Meyer 3, Brooks 12.5, Wilke .5