Penn State and Oklahoma State

[KidNittany]

Time to talk turkey.

It's looking like a two-horse race at this point. I wanted to compare the two. I see a dual shaking out this way:

125- Suriano dec Picc
133- Brock pin Carpenter
141- Heil dec Gulibon
149- Retherford dec Collica
157- Nolf dec Smith
165- Joseph dec Rogers
174- Hall dec Crutch
184- Bo dec Boyd
197- Weigel dec McC
HWT- Nevills dec Schafer

IMO that's pretty conservative on our end. That puts us at 21-12 head's up. 65 is definitely a toss-up, but if you flip it, we're at 18-15. Schafer has wrestled well this year but I think Nevills is a little better.

In the tournament, points-wise:
125 PSU > on strength of placement
133 PSU << on strength of placement and bonus
141 PSU < on strength of placement
149 PSU > on strength of bonus and placement
157 PSU > on strength of bonus and placement
165 Push
174 Push
184 PSU > on strength of bonus and placement
197 Push
HWT PSU > on strength of placement and possibly bonus

You're probably seeing a pattern here. Obviously guys need to perform but I trust Cael getting our dudes really for March time, and if they are we are in the driver's seat.

If we had went with Morelli. I would change the dual to OKST, which could mean they win 18-15. At the tournament I don't know how much of a difference it would've made. Probably lower placement so a slight detraction. Otherwise would stay the same.

 

[Ian]

Pokies are chasing State.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

I would probably give Okie State a tournament edge at 197 (based on placement) and maybe at 165 (based on bonus). Rogers is a pinner.

 

[LemonPie]

tOSU dual looks shaky. Could lose on bonus points, believe it or not. What happens on a 3-way tie between Iowa, PSU, tOSU? Who gets Okie St.?

 

[LemonPie]

125 (+10)
133 (- 16)
141 (-15)
149 (+12)
157 (+12)
165 (-2)
174 (+3)
184- (+7)
197- (-10)
Hwt- (+4)

PSU +4

 

[burnsie1983]

I have no idea how the B1G does it, but a lot of three way ties are broken by point differential. PSU would be +15 and Iowa -15. Hard to imagine the other two duals being lopsided enough to change that. tOSU could put a hurting on Iowa too, though, especially if they win a majority of the tossups at 33,41,49,and 65.

 

[LemonPie]

I have no idea how the B1G does it, but a lot of three way ties are broken by point differential. PSU would be +15 and Iowa -15. Hard to imagine the other two duals being lopsided enough to change that. tOSU could put a hurting on Iowa too, though, especially if they win a majority of the tossups at 33,41,49,and 65.

Certainly possible. If tOSU beats both Iowa and PSU, they will get to face Okie St. without Snyder.

 

[El-Jefe]

tOSU dual looks shaky. Could lose on bonus points, believe it or not. What happens on a 3-way tie between Iowa, PSU, tOSU? Who gets Okie St.?

The current non-B10 standings are 1 Pokes, 2 VT, 3 Lehigh. The selection rules are to avoid rematches where possible, so under this scenario Iowa is out. That leaves PSU and the Tanners -- but we've already faced Lehigh. So we would likely get the Pokes.

Lehigh has Cornell, VT, and at Michigan left, so this could certainly change.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

tOSU dual looks shaky. Could lose on bonus points, believe it or not. What happens on a 3-way tie between Iowa, PSU, tOSU? Who gets Okie St.?

 

[LemonPie]

The current non-B10 standings are 1 Pokes, 2 VT, 3 Lehigh. The selection rules are to avoid rematches where possible, so under this scenario Iowa is out. That leaves PSU and the Tanners -- but we've already faced Lehigh. So we would likely get the Pokes.

Lehigh has Cornell, VT, and at Michigan left, so this could certainly change.

Wouldn't hate the VT matchup, actually.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Would really enjoy an Iowa vs Va Tech matchup.

 

[El-Jefe]

Would really enjoy an Iowa vs Va Tech matchup.

 

[21Guns]

125 (+10)
133 (- 16)
141 (-15)
149 (+12)
157 (+12)
165 (-2)
174 (+3)
184- (+7)
197- (-10)
Hwt- (+4)

PSU +4

Solid post Lemons. Well done.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

125- Suriano dec Picc (3-0)
133- Brock TF Carpenter (3-5)
141- Heil dec Gulibon (3-8)
149- Retherford dec Collica (6-8)
157- Nolf MD Smith (10-8) - could be worse for OSU as Smith hasn't looked great lately (lethargic)
165- Rogers dec Cenzo ((10-11) Big swing match as Cenzo could easily win
174- Hall dec Crutch (13-11)
184- Bo dec Boyd (16-11) Could be MD
197- Weigel dec McC (16-14) Don't pick down Matt
HWT- Nevills dec Schafer (19-14)

 

[bhoov36]

A VT vs PSU matchup could be a closer match than some realize

 

[21Guns]

Suriano dec Piccininni, 3-0.
Brock maj. dec Law, 3-4.
Heil dec. Gulibon, 3-7.
Retherford dec. Collica, 6-7.
Nolf dec. Smith, 9-7.
Rogers dec. Joseph, 9-10.
Hall dec. Crutchmer, 12-10.
Nickal maj. dec. Boyd, 16-10.
Weigel dec. McCutcheon, 16-13.
Nevills dec. Schafer, 19-13.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Suriano dec Piccininni, 3-0.
Brock maj. dec Law, 3-4.
Heil dec. Gulibon, 3-7.
Retherford dec. Collica, 6-7.
Nolf dec. Smith, 9-7.
Rogers dec. Joseph, 9-10.
Hall dec. Crutchmer, 12-10.
Nickal maj. dec. Boyd, 16-10.
Weigel dec. McCutcheon, 16-13.
Nevills dec. Schafer, 19-13.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

A VT vs PSU matchup could be a closer match than some realize

You're right, there's some nice matchups in that one
Suriano vs Dance
Zain vs Chishko
Hall vs Epperly
Bo vs Zavatsky
McCutcheon vs Haught
Nevills vs Walz

Let's for argument sake say everything breaks VTs way and Walz, Epperly, Dance and Haught win (Nickal and Zain aren't going to lose). VT also wins 133. PSU favorites at 141, 157, 165. Best case scenario is a 5-5 split for VT.

 

[Real-Lion]

Time to talk turkey.

It's looking like a two-horse race at this point. I wanted to compare the two. I see a dual shaking out this way:

125- Suriano dec Picc
133- Brock pin Carpenter
141- Heil dec Gulibon
149- Retherford dec Collica
157- Nolf dec Smith
165- Joseph dec Rogers
174- Hall dec Crutch
184- Bo dec Boyd
197- Weigel dec McC
HWT- Nevills dec Schafer

IMO that's pretty conservative on our end. That puts us at 21-12 head's up. 65 is definitely a toss-up, but if you flip it, we're at 18-15. Schafer has wrestled well this year but I think Nevills is a little better.

In the tournament, points-wise:
125 PSU > on strength of placement
133 PSU << on strength of placement and bonus
141 PSU < on strength of placement
149 PSU > on strength of bonus and placement
157 PSU > on strength of bonus and placement
165 Push
174 Push
184 PSU > on strength of bonus and placement
197 Push
HWT PSU > on strength of placement and possibly bonus

You're probably seeing a pattern here. Obviously guys need to perform but I trust Cael getting our dudes really for March time, and if they are we are in the driver's seat.

If we had went with Morelli. I would change the dual to OKST, which could mean they win 18-15. At the tournament I don't know how much of a difference it would've made. Probably lower placement so a slight detraction. Otherwise would stay the same.

Guys Okla State and Ohio State are the 2 biggest teams we need to be concerned about at Nationals !!!!

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Guys Okla State and Ohio State are the 2 biggest teams we need to be concerned about at Nationals !!!!

In other news today, scientists have discovered that the earth is round.

 

[Ian]

JMHO

PSU has 9 probable qualifiers, 2 probable champs, 5 other expected high AA's, 2 outside chance AA's and a lot of bonus points.

Okie State has 10 probable qualifiers, one probable champ. Several mid to low AA's. But I don't see a lot of bonus points.

O$U has 8 probable qualifiers, 2 probable champs. 2 high AA's, 4 possible low other AA's. Good bonus from 4 guys.

Iowa has 7 probable qualifiers but trouble at 41, 65, 97, and 285. 1 probable champ. 3 high AA's and little bonus points.

Right now, PSU is the lead horse.... comfortably.

 

[diggerpup]

And I wouldn't consider Heil a "probable champ".

Of all the returning champs, his style is going to lead him into many matches where a Takedown, riding time or a ref's call could turn the tables.

And 141 is fairly deep. I put Heil at best, 50/50, and I think it's less than that.

I'd bet $100 on the 141 Field vs Heil @ NCAAs.

 

[Ian]

I hope digger. Not a fan of Heil's style. Kinda like Dake's was in that it's just boring. But he wins and wins and wins. I like Ashnault at 41. Hope Jimmy can get hot cause he could make some noise in his last run.

 

[NoVa Lion]

And I wouldn't consider Heil a "probable champ".

Of all the returning champs, his style is going to lead him into many matches where a Takedown, riding time or a ref's call could turn the tables.

And 141 is fairly deep. I put Heil at best, 50/50, and I think it's less than that.

I'd bet $100 on the 141 Field vs Heil @ NCAAs.

141 is VERY deep. Personally, I like McKenna, but anyone in the top 8 has a good chance at winning. Returning finalist Meredith ranked #8. Frosh Kolodzik has looked very good too. Heil could easily finish outside the top 4.

 

[RoarLions1]

And I wouldn't consider Heil a "probable champ".

Of all the returning champs, his style is going to lead him into many matches where a Takedown, riding time or a ref's call could turn the tables.

And 141 is fairly deep. I put Heil at best, 50/50, and I think it's less than that.

I'd bet $100 on the 141 Field vs Heil @ NCAAs.

141 is VERY deep. Personally, I like McKenna, but anyone in the top 8 has a good chance at winning. Returning finalist Meredith ranked #8. Frosh Kolodzik has looked very good too. Heil could easily finish outside the top 4.

The thing about a weight class as deep as 141 this year, with not a lot of separation between the wrestlers. The NCAA's could be wrestled 10 times, with 10 different results. A hot wrestler, illness, bright lights, and other factors kick in. Heil is the favorite until someone beats him. It's just his margin for error is very slim.

 

[Ian]

Let's hope Jimmy gets hot.

 

[Callthestall]

Let's hope Jimmy gets hot.

If Gulibon wrestled for 5-6 in the nationals I would be quite happy. He can't do anything with a talented big 141 pounder. His good win last year was against a kid wrestling with one good leg.

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

If Gulibon wrestled for 5-6 in the nationals I would be quite happy. He can't do anything with a talented big 141 pounder. His good win last year was against a kid wrestling with one good leg.

I'm in the group who doesn't expect him to do well at 141 but he did beat Jordan at big tens who's only loss on the season at that time was to Manley and Manley won on a late td

 

[androcles]

...Cornell defeated Lehigh...

 

[rohrmd9]

In other news today, scientists have discovered that the earth is round.

Your information is a bit out of date....like by hundreds of years.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-is-not-round/

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

Alternative facts

 

[greenmanRD]

A VT vs PSU matchup could be a closer match than some realize

We could very well win every match from 141 to 184 with bonuses in 3 of them. I don't think that match is particularly close unless VT wins at 125 and 285.

 

[jtothemfp]

141 is VERY deep. Personally, I like McKenna, but anyone in the top 8 has a good chance at winning. Returning finalist Meredith ranked #8. Frosh Kolodzik has looked very good too. Heil could easily finish outside the top 4.

I like McKenna too. He dominated Kolodzik last week. But against Dean Heil, he's always look frozen, deer in headlights. Not sure why. Dude looks like he could blast him & roll him if he puts his mind to it.

Still, Heil's got some weird magic and the only way I'll pick against him is to 'take the field.'

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Would really enjoy an Iowa vs Va Tech matchup.

So would Dresser.....

 

[Nitfan]

Illegals swung this vote!