Football Penn State moves up in latest CFP Ranking

Mufasa94

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The posing-trolls are just beside themselves that PSU continues to steam toward a NY6. LMAO
This continues to look promising for NY6. Assuming PSU wins out, two biggest derailers would be:
  • Unbeaten TCU losing their CCG
  • USC winning next two and then losing CCG.
Although Utah/Oregon winner will be above after this week, they’d just have to drop 1 spot with a 3rd loss in CCG.

Lots of potential outcomes to help the situation. Would prefer the Orange Bowl, but may need help for that.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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This continues to look promising for NY6. Assuming PSU wins out, two biggest derailers would be:
  • Unbeaten TCU losing their CCG
  • USC winning next two and then losing CCG.
Although Utah/Oregon winner will be above after this week, they’d just have to drop 1 spot with a 3rd loss in CCG.

Lots of potential outcomes to help the situation. Would prefer the Orange Bowl, but may need help for that.

If Oregon beats Utah, it would drop Utah significantly (3 losses) but probably would not be sufficient for Oregon to jump PSU (Utah is only one spot higher than PSU). Also it doesn't matter if TCU loses CCG as they would likely fall out of top 4 and be B12 rep in Sugar Bowl. The scUM/duhO$U loser would likely make the 4-Team Invitational and PSU would go to Rose.
 

fastlax16

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If Oregon beats Utah, it would drop Utah significantly (3 losses) but probably would not be sufficient for Oregon to jump PSU (Utah is only one spot higher than PSU). Also it doesn't matter if TCU loses CCG as they would likely fall out of top 4 and be B12 rep in Sugar Bowl. The scUM/duhO$U loser would likely make the 4-Team Invitational and PSU would go to Rose.

If TCU loses the CCG they won't go to the Sugar Bowl. The winner of the big 12 champ game will, and TCU will likely go to the cotton.
 
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CJFisJoePaII

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If TCU loses the CCG they won't go to the Sugar Bowl. The winner of the big 12 champ game will, and TCU will likely go to the cotton.

Yes, my mistake, but the Top 4 likely becomes UGa, 2) duhO$U/scUM Winner, 3) Tenn and 4) duhO$U/scUM loser. PSU to Rose.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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If Oregon beats Utah, it would drop Utah significantly (3 losses) but probably would not be sufficient for Oregon to jump PSU (Utah is only one spot higher than PSU). Also it doesn't matter if TCU loses CCG as they would likely fall out of top 4 and be B12 rep in Sugar Bowl. The scUM/duhO$U loser would likely make the 4-Team Invitational and PSU would go to Rose.

The worst case scenario for PSU is TCU losing Conference Game and USC winning out as USC likely goes to 4-team Invitational, B12 CCG Winner to Sugar, TCU Cotton and duhO$U/scUM loser to Rose. But even in this scenario it is likely Bama to Sugar as SEC rep and Orange would take PSU over a 3-loss LSU.
 

Online Persona

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LSU is positioned such that any way it plays out will result in 2 SEC bids maybe 3 if LSU beats Georgia in their conference championship and others slip up.

The big 10 could do this too if they didn't insist on all of their good teams being in the same division.
 
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wilbury

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LSU is positioned such that any way it plays out will result in 2 SEC bids maybe 3 if LSU beats Georgia in their conference championship and others slip up.

The big 10 could do this too if they didn't insist on all of their good teams being in the same division.
The committee isn't putting 3 SEC teams in even if LSU beats Georgia. Tennessee would likely be out even though they only have one loss.
 

sss

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The committee isn't putting 3 SEC teams in even if LSU beats Georgia. Tennessee would likely be out even though they only have one loss.
And crushed LSU in Baton Rouge? That will generate some discussion. I recall a 2 loss conference champion passed over by a 1 loss non-champion from the same division that lost to said champion.
 

sss

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Everyone is writing off a 1 loss ACC champion (Clemson) over the OSU-UM loser? That would be a first, no?
 

Online Persona

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Everyone is writing off a 1 loss ACC champion (Clemson) over the OSU-UM loser? That would be a first, no?
Look how far down they have Clemson and UNC ranked. There is zero respect for the ACC and it's probably justified. We would probably run the table in that conference. It looks like even 3 loss Notre Dame who lost at home to Marshall would run the table in the ACC as well.
 

sss

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Look how far down they have Clemson and UNC ranked. There is zero respect for the ACC and it's probably justified. We would probably run the table in that conference. It looks like even 3 loss Notre Dame who lost at home to Marshall would run the table in the ACC as well.
USC and TCU lose, Clemson wins out (including an ACC championship over top 10 UNC) and they will jump 2 loss Bama. That already puts them at 6. LSU loses SEC championship that puts them at 5. Then it comes down to 1 loss OSU/UM loser and 1 loss Tennessee vs conference champ Clemson. I think 1 loss Big10 team is out, especially if it is Michigan.
 

Online Persona

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USC and TCU lose, Clemson wins out (including an ACC championship over top 10 UNC) and they will jump 2 loss Bama. That already puts them at 6. LSU loses SEC championship that puts them at 5. Then it comes down to 1 loss OSU/UM loser and 1 loss Tennessee vs conference champ Clemson. I think 1 loss Big10 team is out, especially if it is Michigan.
I just disagree. If Michigan or Ohio St have only 1 loss to an undefeated team and a win over top 10 PSU then that is obviously a much, much stronger resume than a loss to 3 loss Notre Dame and a win over what would no longer be a top 10 ACC championship game loser.
 

NewEra 2014

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I just disagree. If Michigan or Ohio St have only 1 loss to an undefeated team and a win over top 10 PSU then that is obviously a much, much stronger resume than a loss to 3 loss Notre Dame and a win over what would no longer be a top 10 ACC championship game loser.
Although the OSU/Michigan resume argument is a good one, college football rankings are funny things. Consider that Penn State is the fourth-ranked 8-2 team, behind LSU, Bama, and Utah. Penn State's only losses are to undefeated OSU and Michigan, yet Penn State is only ranked 11th in the country.
 

fastlax16

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Although the OSU/Michigan resume argument is a good one, college football rankings are funny things. Consider that Penn State is the fourth-ranked 8-2 team, behind LSU, Bama, and Utah. Penn State's only losses are to undefeated OSU and Michigan, yet Penn State is only ranked 11th in the country.

Because it is an arbitrary system. The most important criteria is the number in the loss column. But then when evaluating teams with the same number of losses who you beat becomes more important than who you lost to. It’s the reason why wanting OSU as an annual rival once things reset is a terrible idea. It’s why UGA and Alabama are almost never scheduled to play each other in the regular season.
 

wilbury

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Look how far down they have Clemson and UNC ranked. There is zero respect for the ACC and it's probably justified. We would probably run the table in that conference. It looks like even 3 loss Notre Dame who lost at home to Marshall would run the table in the ACC as well.
Agreed. A lot would have to happen for Clemson to get in.
 

Jerry

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Nittany Lions go from No.14 to No.11 in this week’s ranking.


Top-10 ranking here we come, baby!

That aside, to me it looks like they're setting it up for two SEC teams to make it in.

Then the Ohio State-Michigan winner is a lock, assuming neither team stumbles this Saturday.

But I still don't see Michigan making it if they lose to the Bucks on November 26.

TCU appears to have a fairly clear path...if they win out.

I'd be pretty upset if I were USC. This latest CFP poll appears to send them a message. Then again, they close against two ranked teams, and if they win both plus their conference championship, I think they would deserve inclusion in the playoff field. That doesn't mean they'll get it of course.
 

bison13

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Although the OSU/Michigan resume argument is a good one, college football rankings are funny things. Consider that Penn State is the fourth-ranked 8-2 team, behind LSU, Bama, and Utah. Penn State's only losses are to undefeated OSU and Michigan, yet Penn State is only ranked 11th in the country.
when you lose is just as important as to who
 
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sss

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Top-10 ranking here we come, baby!

That aside, to me it looks like they're setting it up for two SEC teams to make it in.

Then the Ohio State-Michigan winner is a lock, assuming neither team stumbles this Saturday.

But I still don't see Michigan making it if they lose to the Bucks on November 26.

TCU appears to have a fairly clear path...if they win out.

I'd be pretty upset if I were USC. This latest CFP poll appears to send them a message. Then again, they close against two ranked teams, and if they win both plus their conference championship, I think they would deserve inclusion in the playoff field. That doesn't mean they'll get it of course.
Personally, I think people are dismissing a 1 loss Pac12 (USC) or ACC (Clemson) champion. They are both ranked where they need to be at this point. A 1 loss Big12 team (TCU) removes itself from contention. I think a 1 loss PAC12 or a 1 loss ACC champ gets in over a 1 loss Michigan. Michigan's only win over a top25 team will be vs. PSU.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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LSU is positioned such that any way it plays out will result in 2 SEC bids maybe 3 if LSU beats Georgia in their conference championship and others slip up.

The big 10 could do this too if they didn't insist on all of their good teams being in the same division.

Disagree - it would be the opposite.... 12-1 UGa and 12-1 Tenn would likely be in along with duhO$U/scUM Winner and TCU (or if they lose a game, 12-1 USC.....). There is already precedent for bypassing a 2-loss P5 Conf Champ for a 1-loss team from the same Conference - PSU in 2016 (duhO$U went to 4-Team Invitational Tournament).... or did you forget about that one? Hard to believe a PSU fan wouldn't remember this.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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The committee isn't putting 3 SEC teams in even if LSU beats Georgia. Tennessee would likely be out even though they only have one loss.

Disagree - it would be 2-loss SEC Champ LSU that is out.... 12-1 UGa and 12-1 Tenn would likely be in along with duhO$U/scUM Winner and TCU (or if they lose a game, 12-1 USC.....). There is already precedent for bypassing a 2-loss P5 Conf Champ for a 1-loss team from the same Conference - PSU in 2016 (duhO$U went to 4-Team Invitational Tournament).... or did you forget about that one? Hard to believe a PSU fan wouldn't remember this.
 
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doctornick

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Everyone is writing off a 1 loss ACC champion (Clemson) over the OSU-UM loser? That would be a first, no?

If tOSU is the 1 loss Big Ten team, then they'd have a good argument to go over Clemson just based on results vs common opponent (Notre Dame).
 

Online Persona

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Disagree - it would be the opposite.... 12-1 UGa and 12-1 Tenn would likely be in along with duhO$U/scUM Winner and TCU (or if they lose a game, 12-1 USC.....). There is already precedent for bypassing a 2-loss P5 Conf Champ for a 1-loss team from the same Conference - PSU in 2016 (duhO$U went to 4-Team Invitational Tournament).... or did you forget about that one? Hard to believe a PSU fan wouldn't remember this.
When I said "and others slip up" it was implied that TCU and USC don't win out.
 

doctornick

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Personally, I think people are dismissing a 1 loss Pac12 (USC) or ACC (Clemson) champion. They are both ranked where they need to be at this point. A 1 loss Big12 team (TCU) removes itself from contention. I think a 1 loss PAC12 or a 1 loss ACC champ gets in over a 1 loss Michigan. Michigan's only win over a top25 team will be vs. PSU.

If USC wins out, they are in the CFP. I don't think that's in doubt. However, they actually have a challenging road ahead and could easily lose any of their remaining games.

No 2 loss Pac-12 team is making it to the CFP.
 

fastlax16

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Tennessee isn’t going get to 12-1 unless UGA loses both of its remaining games or gets disqualified from participating in the Seccg.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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If USC wins out, they are in the CFP. I don't think that's in doubt. However, they actually have a challenging road ahead and could easily lose any of their remaining games.

No 2 loss Pac-12 team is making it to the CFP.

Hhhhmmmm....., not sure I agree that it isn't in doubt. 2-loss LSU and 1-loss Tenn are currently in front of USC. USC continuing to win doesn't guarantee they will jump both of them. Beyond that, there are 4 0-loss teams in front of them who may not drop behind them even if they lose. I think TCU probably would drop behind them because there is doubt about the strength of the B12 this year. However, I really think it depends on how close the duhO$U/scUM game is as to whether they will fall behind a 1-loss USC (or even 1-loss Tenn for that matter). duhO$U and scUM are #2 and #3 respectively, if they play a super tight game, I can see the loser only dropping to #4 behind TCU. In any event, USC has a ton of 1-loss teams that they would need to jump which I'm not sure I'd characterize as "without a doubt" even if they [i.e., USC] win out. Outside possibility, but not probable by any means imho.
 

doctornick

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Tennessee isn’t going get to 12-1 unless UGA loses both of its remaining games or gets disqualified from participating in the Seccg.

Georgia is the SEC East rep for the conference championship. One of their remaining games (Ga Tech) is non-conference so they can't finish below Tenn in the standings given that they have the head to head win.
 

doctornick

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Hhhhmmmm....., not sure I agree that it isn't in doubt. 2-loss LSU and 1-loss Tenn are currently in front of USC. USC continuing to win doesn't guarantee they will jump both of them. Beyond that, there are 4 0-loss teams in front of them who may not drop behind them even if they lose. I think TCU probably would drop behind them because there is doubt about the strength of the B12 this year. However, I really think it depends on how close the duhO$U/scUM game is as to whether they will fall behind a 1-loss USC (or even 1-loss Tenn for that matter). duhO$U and scUM are #2 and #3 respectively, if they play a super tight game, I can see the loser only dropping to #4 behind TCU. In any event, USC has a ton of 1-loss teams that they would need to jump which I'm not sure I'd characterize as "without a doubt" even if they [i.e., USC] win out. Outside possibility, but not probable by any means imho.

If USC beats UCLA, Notre Dame and then Utah or Oregon in the conference championship to go 12-1, they will 100% be in the playoff above 1 loss non-conference champs like Tenn or the tOSU/UM loser. Yes, they will jump teams if they win out. The biggest knock against USC is that they "haven't beaten anyone" - their most impressive win has been a close on over Oregon St and they lost to Utah - but they easily have the toughest remaining schedule of any potential contending team. That is what the committee wants to see both some notable wins and a conference championship.

I would expect them to leap LSU if they win this week and leap past Tenn and the tOSU/UM lose if they beat Notre Dame. That's all they need for top 4 and they'll stay there as long as they win the Pac-12 championship.

(That said, I don't think USC will win out).
 

CJFisJoePaII

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If USC beats UCLA, Notre Dame and then Utah or Oregon in the conference championship to go 12-1, they will 100% be in the playoff above 1 loss non-conference champs like Tenn or the tOSU/UM loser. Yes, they will jump teams if they win out. The biggest knock against USC is that they "haven't beaten anyone" - their most impressive win has been a close on over Oregon St and they lost to Utah - but they easily have the toughest remaining schedule of any potential contending team. That is what the committee wants to see both some notable wins and a conference championship.

I would expect them to leap LSU if they win this week and leap past Tenn and the tOSU/UM lose if they beat Notre Dame. That's all they need for top 4 and they'll stay there as long as they win the Pac-12 championship.

(That said, I don't think USC will win out).

Completely disagree with you that a 1-loss USC jumps these teams during the regular-season (maybe LSU and maybe the scUM-duhO$U loser during, but again - if duhO$U-v-scUM is an extremely tight game in a #2 vs #3 game, USC is not jumping the loser with regular season wins of very pedestrian ND and UCLA teams. It really depends on how close the duhO$U/scUM game is imo.). USC has a remote chance of jumping everyone in front of them if they win out through their CCG, but they aren't passing Tenn during the Regular Season without Tenn losing, which isn't happening.
 

doctornick

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Completely disagree with you that a 1-loss USC jumps these teams during the regular-season (maybe LSU and maybe the scUM-duhO$U loser during, but again - if duhO$U-v-scUM is an extremely tight game in a #2 vs #3 game, USC is not jumping the loser with regular season wins of very pedestrian ND and UCLA teams. It really depends on how close the duhO$U/scUM game is imo.). USC has a remote chance of jumping everyone in front of them if they win out through their CCG, but they aren't passing Tenn during the Regular Season without Tenn losing, which isn't happening.

There's can always be a first, but the CFP committee has been pretty consistent in always favoring conference champions over non-champion teams with the same or worse record. The only times that non-champion teams have gotten into the CFP, they have had better records (fewer losses) than any of the champions that were excluded.

Sure, USC might not jump other non-champion teams during the regular season so that might be right, but they surely would if they win their championship game (if they win out).
 

CJFisJoePaII

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There's can always be a first, but the CFP committee has been pretty consistent in always favoring conference champions over non-champion teams with the same or worse record. The only times that non-champion teams have gotten into the CFP, they have had better records (fewer losses) than any of the champions that were excluded.

Sure, USC might not jump other non-champion teams during the regular season so that might be right, but they surely would if they win their championship game (if they win out).

I don't know about all that - pretty sure a 1-loss Bama without a Conference Chapionship went in front of 1-loss P5 Conference Champions.
 

KCLion

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Disagree - it would be 2-loss SEC Champ LSU that is out.... 12-1 UGa and 12-1 Tenn would likely be in along with duhO$U/scUM Winner and TCU (or if they lose a game, 12-1 USC.....). There is already precedent for bypassing a 2-loss P5 Conf Champ for a 1-loss team from the same Conference - PSU in 2016 (duhO$U went to 4-Team Invitational Tournament).... or did you forget about that one? Hard to believe a PSU fan wouldn't remember this.
Tennessee can’t be 12-1, just saying, unless it’s after the bowl season.
 

doctornick

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I don't know about all that - pretty sure a 1-loss Bama without a Conference Chapionship went in front of 1-loss P5 Conference Champions.
You might think that, but you’d be wrong. The only time Bama went as a non champ was 2017 wheh they were 11-1. The two P5 champs left out were tOSU and USC both at 11-2.

The only P5 1 loss team to win a conference championship and get excluded from the CFP was 2018 tOSU and the four teams that made it were either undefeated (Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame) or also 1 loss conference champion (Oklahoma).
 

wilbury

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Disagree - it would be 2-loss SEC Champ LSU that is out.... 12-1 UGa and 12-1 Tenn would likely be in along with duhO$U/scUM Winner and TCU (or if they lose a game, 12-1 USC.....). There is already precedent for bypassing a 2-loss P5 Conf Champ for a 1-loss team from the same Conference - PSU in 2016 (duhO$U went to 4-Team Invitational Tournament).... or did you forget about that one? Hard to believe a PSU fan wouldn't remember this.
We beat Wisconsin. LSU would have late season wins over Bama, Ole Miss and #1 Georgia. The SEC champ will be in even with 2 losses.
 

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