A pretty good week. Even the games I felt like went the "wrong way" for Penn State turned out to be pretty good situations going forward. Washington, Virginia Tech, and Mississippi are pretty much h out of NY6 consideration now. Unfortunately, the SEC will probably get 3 teams in between the playoff and the other 4 major bowls.
Let's take a look at how Week 12 shakes out after a wild Week 11:
*These aren't rooting interests for recruiting, rivalry, hatred, or anything else. Just what is best for Penn State to grab a big time bowl bid.
Virginia (6-4) at #3 Miami (FL) (9-0)
At this point, I'm almost positive that the ACC gets 2 teams in (Acc champ to playoff, ACC runner up to NY6) so this game really doesn't matter, but won't stop me from pulling for the Cavs. Remember that Miami had to cancel a game against a tricky Arkansas State team this year bc of the hurricanes, so the best they could do is 11-0 in the regular season. Now, beating a Sun Belt team for 12-0 isn't the biggest boost in the world, but if Miami were to finish 10-1 in the regular season and lose to Clemson, suddenly they are a 10-2 team as well. We're assuming both get in anyway, why not root for them to be less desirable?
#15 Central Florida (10-0) at Temple (5-5)
Maybe a cold, sloppy game in Philadelphia is what the doctor ordered? Doubtful as I don't think the owls have enough fire power to hang with the Golden Knights. The best chance for a UCF loss is the season finale against South Florida in the Directional Florida Super Bowl. Still going TU-Tuff in this one.
Minnesota (5-5) at #23 Northwestern (7-3)
Just keep winning 'Cats. A 31-7 win on the road against a top 20 team would be very nice on the resume, but Goldy is riding high after hanging half-a-hundo on the Huskers last week.
#24 Michigan (8-2) at #5 Wisconsin (10-0)
Michigan finally enters back into the rankings. Really baffling considering there are SIX 3-loss teams are ranked ahead of them. Michigan has finally found their groove with a new quarterback and a rediscovered running game. The defense has also snapped out of their funk allowing just 10 points in each of the last 2 games. A trip to Madison will not be easy, but this is the type of team that could cause Wisconsin problems. It will be the most physical and fast team the Badgers have played this year. This game is tricky. A Michigan win helps Penn State's resume, but also propels the Wolverines into the NY6 conversation and all but eliminating the B1G from a playoff spot; however, a Wiscosin loss would likely ensure that the Nittany Lions be selected for a NY6 bowl over the B1G Championship game loser. A Wisconsin win means PSU would be rooting for Wisconsin to go 13-0, make the playoff, and knock OSU behind Penn State in the rankings.
Louisiana-Monroe (4-5) at #6 Auburn (8-2)
Auburn is a perfect example of why losing EARLY is beneficial. Their loses are very comparable to Penn State's, but they are on the cusp of a CFP berth. I know it's ridiculous, and I know ULM is going to lose by a lot, but maybe if the Warhawks keep it close, it'll be enough to cause doubt in the committee's mind in a few weeks if Bama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
#12 TCU (8-2) at Texas Tech (5-5)
TCU has beaten two teams inside the RPI top 40 this year, Penn State has 3. TCU has 1 loss to teams outside the RPI top 40, Penn State has 0. Really, TCU needs a second shot at Oklahoma in the Big XII title game to make a strong case to be in the NY6. The B1G XII is pretty chaotic right now and anything can happen, but this is TCU's most likely chance at an upset loss. A Red Raiders win gives the Horned Frogs loss #3.
SMU (6-4) at # 21 Memphis (8-1)
If UCF somehow loses a game this year, it would be nice if there wasn't another really offensively potent G5 team ready to scoop up their spot. Rooting for the Pony Express.
Pitt (4-6) at Virginia Tech (7-3)
Just like last week, we're rooting for VT to lose down the stretch, hell the Hokies aren't even ranked in the CFP poll anymore. It really doesn't matter too much at this point as Miami's thrashing of ND last Saturday all but assured two ACC teams of making big bowls, but in this crazy world of college football, it never hurts to have too much help. At yes, a Pitt win would "technically" help our SOS, but I'm not gonna pretend that it's the point of this paragraph.
Iowa State (6-4) at Baylor (1-9)
See the VT logic and apply it here. ISU has wins over Oklahoma and TCU with a near victory over OK State. If ISU continues to lose (current RPI #41), it hurts the overall strength of those Big XII teams. For example, TCU having two losses, but one to a team outside of the RPI top 50 would be a huge black stain on their resume. Rooting for Rhule.
Kansas State (5-5) at #13 Oklahoma State (8-2)
The Cyclones almost bailed out a lot of teams last week. Instead, we now have to hop Bill Snyder can pull one of his annual rabbits out of his hat. I'm not confident, but I am at least hopeful. OK State's only shot at the conference championship is winning out and TCU losing again. They would own the Tie-breaker over WVU at that point. If it were to happen, Penn State would want the Sooners to beat OK State again. Every team in the conference except OU would have 3-losses. There is a long way to go in the Big XII though. For now, let's go Purple and Silver.
Purdue (4-6) at Iowa (6-4)
No longer a "ranked win" for Penn State, but Iowa can still help out by bolstering their RPI. 8-4 is within reach and they currently sit at #28 in the RPI calculations. It also helps OSU (by not hurting them as much) but at this point, I am assuming OSU wins the B1G anyway.
Kentucky (7-3) at #7 Georgia (9-1)
I had no idea Kentucky was 7-3. When you lose to Florida and Mississippi in the same season, you can't consider it a great success, but still 7 wins is 7 wins. Could Georgia be hungover from their first loss last week? Is Georgia really that good to begin with (ahem, no)? If Kentucky pulled off a miracle, the Dawgs would be heading to the SEC title game with 2 losses and facing the Crimson Tide or a rematch with Auburn. Last week, I rooted for UGA to win out so the SEC got only 2 in. Now I'm rooting for UGA to lose once more before the conference title to keep the SEC to only 2 (Bama and Auburn).
Navy (6-3) at #8 Notre Dame (8-2)
I'm not even playing here, this is an extremely dangerous game for ND. Navy has given them fits in recent years, but beyond that the triple option is very difficult to prepare for. Combined with the aftershock of getting drilled by Miami and this being the game sandwiched between Miami and Stanford, it's the trap game of the season. Even a close ND win hurts them. Putting a lot of eggs in the Midshipmen basket this weekend.
Maryland (4-6) at #17 Michigan State (7-3)
Tough one here. A MSU loss and Penn State win let's the Nittany Lions jump into 2nd in the division. From an aesthetics standpoint, the is a lot more appealing than the committee selecting a team 3rd in their division to the NY6. It does hurt PSU's overall strength and RPI if Sparty loses, but one would think the committee could see through a 3.5 hour lightning delay on the road a week after a heartbreaking loss. If OSU's loss to Penn State last year was a "fluke" so was MSU's win over Penn State.
#19 NC State (7-3) at Wake Forest (6-4)
This falls into the same category as VT and Iowa State weakening tactics: the weaker a NC State win looks for ND, the better it is for Penn State. Pretty simple. An NC State win doesn't hurt PSU either, but for argument's sake we're going Deacons here.
UCLA (5-5) at #11 Southern California (9-2)
Last chance of the regular season for SC to lose before the Pac 12 championship game. It really doesn't matter, because whoever wins the Pac 12 gets into the NY6, but the less at-large competition there is the better. Right now, Washington State has the inside track for the north. If the Cougars beat U-Dub, they win the north. For Stanford to make it, they need to beat Cal and have Washington beat Wazzu. For Washington to make it, they need to beat Utah and Wazzu and see Stanford lose to Cal. Penn State should be rooting for an SC loss this weekend and Washington State to beat Washington next week. Let's see how good Josh Rosen really is.
Utah (5-5) at #18 Washington (8-2)
As I said last week, Washington has 0 wins over P5 teams with records above .500 yet somehow their NY6 chances are still very much alive. Even without making the Pac 12 title game, the Huskies could finish 10-2. If that were to happen, there is a chance that a USC-Stanford Pac 12 final could "steal" a bid. A Utah upset would be huge for Penn State, but not the end of the world if it did not happen. Wazzu has a bye this week giving them ample time to prepare for arch-rival Washington
Other rooting interests:
Ohio (8-2) at Akron (5-5)
Arizona State (5-5) at Oregon State (1-9)
Syracuse (4-6) at Louisville (6-4)
My CFP field (as of today):
1. Bama
2. Oklahoma
3. ACC Champ
4. Wisconsin
NY6 pool of teams (as of today):
ACC runner up
UCF
Auburn
Georia
Ohio State
Penn State
Big XII runner up
Pac 12 at-large
