Phil Steele NCAA Returning Experience (link)

[NewEra 2014]

Sorry to interrupt this board for a football post, but Phil Steele posted his annual returning experience table, which some folks may find to be interesting. Penn State has the most returning experience in the BIG, based on Steele's analysis. Also, a LOT of our opponents are near the bottom of the list, including 2018 NCAA playoff participant Michigan. Northwestern has a lot of players returning this year and may surprise a few people.

I will be shocked if Michigan has less than 3 losses this year, and I expect them to have 4 losses.

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/JUNE17/DBJune23.html

 

[MontereyLion]

Sorry to interrupt this board for a football post, but Phil Steele posted his annual returning experience table, which some folks may find to be interesting. Penn State has the most returning experience in the BIG, based on Steele's analysis. Also, a LOT of our opponents are near the bottom of the list, including 2018 NCAA playoff participant Michigan. Northwestern has a lot of players returning this year and may surprise a few people.

I will be shocked if Michigan has less than 3 losses this year, and I expect them to have 4 losses.

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/JUNE17/DBJune23.html

Just curious.....I haven't gotten his magazine yet. Still looking for it to buy. Does
anyone know where Steele has Penn State ranked this year? Both in the Bigten and Nationally?

 

[Obliviax]

Thanks...PSU clearly is the highest ranked of those programs that have a lot of returners. You've got W, but they lost a lot with the QB.

The issue with Michigan, and to some extent tOSU, is that their underclassmen are so highly ranked. The drop off from a starter to the next man up probably isn't very much.

 

[Obliviax]

UM also has a pretty easy schedule this year. they start with a decent FL team. They then have an easy run with Cincy, Air Force, Perdue, MSUT, and Indiana. MSU being their tough game but that program is really wounded.

they then have PSU.

After that, its Rutgers, Minnesota, MD, Wisconsin and tOSU.

I can't see them losing more than four (FL, PSU, Wiscy and tOSU).

 

[jschrantz]

Just curious.....I haven't gotten his magazine yet. Still looking for it to buy. Does
anyone know where Steele has Penn State ranked this year? Both in the Bigten and Nationally?

2nd BIG, 6th nationally in power rankings , he has a few sets though

 

[tboyer]

Sorry to interrupt this board for a football post, but Phil Steele posted his annual returning experience table, which some folks may find to be interesting. Penn State has the most returning experience in the BIG, based on Steele's analysis. Also, a LOT of our opponents are near the bottom of the list, including 2018 NCAA playoff participant Michigan. Northwestern has a lot of players returning this year and may surprise a few people.

I will be shocked if Michigan has less than 3 losses this year, and I expect them to have 4 losses.

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/JUNE17/DBJune23.html

Well, if you believe 5 star players matter, Michigan may do better than their experience indicates. They have some tremendous young talent at least on paper.

Agree NW could be a real pain this year. Though they will have to replace Austin Carr, their best player.

 

[BiochemPSU]

Thanks for posting, but I think this is a misleading stat as far as total ranking goes. If you look at the formula, he assigns each team a total score based on five factors. Florida Atlantic scores the highest with 80.3 out of 100 points. PSU gets 72.6. OSU has 65.8 (the same as Purdue) and Bama has a 60.5. Not so sure that means anything.

Now what is interesting is the percentage of yardage returning and starts on the o-line (assuming he got the starters right and injuries of course will change this). However, PSU returns 89.9% of its yards on offense (which is first in the Big) and a very respectable 87 starts. Those are some formidable offensive numbers.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Well, if you believe 5 star players matter, Michigan may do better than their experience indicates. They have some tremendous young talent at least on paper.

No question that 5 stars matter, but experience matters in football more than it does in say, basketball. This is why I called for Colorado to be pretty good last year when there were certain dopes on this board (not you, tboyer) who couldn't see past previous editions of that team.

A young team like Michigan will likely "underachieve" during the season and lose a game or two that is unexpected. They may even look bad against OSU as their young guys wear down over the season. But my guess is that they will begin to show that they have a great future in their bowl game.

 

[Woodpecker]

Penn State plays 4 of the bottom 8 on that list this year

 

[dawgduice]

I would think a 4 star with "experience and age" (which includes physical strength) would be superior to a "rookie" 5 star.
Actually, it is why I think PSU can compete year in and year out with the shorter term 5 star guys at OSU.

 

[tboyer]

I don't recall a really good PSU team returning so much talent since maybe 1993-94. Or maybe 1985-86. In both cases, they turned out to be special seasons.

Godwin and Bell are the only two spots where production goes down. And in both Godwin/Bell cases, if the unit stays healthy and young players do well, there won't much dropoff. Then in other units (DL and OL) the team looks to be stronger because of talented underclassmen joining the rotation.

On paper I think we have reason to be as confident going into this season as we have been in a very long time.

But I have also been a fan long enough to know that sometimes things don't work out the way you expect. The schedule is going to be a killer this year and lots of second-tier teams (NW, maybe Indiana) look dangerous.

 

[rohrmd9]

You can see what an impression the USC QB Sam Darnold made during the Rose Bowl. USC is ranked 72nd on this list and yet many predict they'll be in the playoffs this year.